职业棒球中的职业统计数据：类固醇时代及以后的会计
Detrending career statistics in professional baseball: Accounting for the steroids era and beyond
摘要：
关于如何客观地比较不同历史时期职业运动员的职业成就，存在着长期的争论。制定一个客观的方法将是特别重要的，在未来十年的美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）的球员从“类固醇时代”成为有资格进入名人堂感应。在这里，我们解决这个问题，以及比较不同时代的统计数据的一般问题，通过去除趋势的职业棒球运动员的季节性统计数据。我们通过将成就标准化为季节平均值来降低球员统计数据的趋势，这说明了由外源和内源因素引起的相对球员能力的变化，例如扩张，设备和训练改进以及性能增强药物（PED）的人才稀释。在本文中，我们比较了去趋势职业生涯统计数据的概率密度函数（pdf）和原始职业生涯统计数据的pdf，这五个统计类别是命中率（H），本垒打（HR），击球率（RBI），胜利（W）和三振（K）-在1920年至2009年的90年期间。我们发现，这些pdf的功能形式是平稳的趋势下。这种平稳性意味着，在职业棒球的寿命和成功的右偏分布中观察到的统计规律性来自运动员之间广泛的内在天赋和竞争的根本性质。使用这种简单的趋势消除技术，我们研究了H，HR，RBI，W和K的前50名职业。我们通过Gamma分布拟合职业成功的pdf，以计算基于极端统计的客观基准，这些基准可用于识别非凡的职业生涯。
英文摘要：
There is a long standing debate over how to objectively compare the career achievements of professional athletes from different historical eras. Developing an objective approach will be of particular importance over the next decade as Major League Baseball (MLB) players from the "steroids era" become eligible for Hall of Fame induction. Here we address this issue, as well as the general problem of comparing statistics from distinct eras, by detrending the seasonal statistics of professional baseball players. We detrend player statistics by normalizing achievements to seasonal averages, which accounts for changes in relative player ability resulting from both exogenous and endogenous factors, such as talent dilution from expansion, equipment and training improvements, as well as performance enhancing drugs (PED). In this paper we compare the probability density function (pdf) of detrended career statistics to the pdf of raw career statistics for five statistical categories -- hits (H), home runs (HR), runs batted in (RBI), wins (W) and strikeouts (K) -- over the 90-year period 1920-2009. We find that the functional form of these pdfs are stationary under detrending. This stationarity implies that the statistical regularity observed in the right-skewed distributions for longevity and success in professional baseball arises from both the wide range of intrinsic talent among athletes and the underlying nature of competition. Using this simple detrending technique, we examine the top 50 all-time careers for H, HR, RBI, W and K. We fit the pdfs for career success by the Gamma distribution in order to calculate objective benchmarks based on extreme statistics which can be used for the identification of extraordinary careers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
