以指数频率分布预测棒球全垒打纪录
Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponential Frequency Distributions
摘要：
一个新的模型，它使用个人的年度本垒打总数的频率，是用来预测未来的本垒打总数和记录在美国职业棒球大联盟。完整的本垒打频率数据从1903年至2005年进行了分析，导致年度指数分布，其变化可以被用来作为衡量在运动中的进展，并作为一个基础上，创纪录的表现可以进行比较。我们发现，有80%的机会，巴里邦兹目前的73个本垒打纪录将被打破，在未来10年，尽管由棒球传奇人物贝比鲁斯和罗杰马里斯保持以前的纪录长寿。
英文摘要：
A new model, which uses the frequency of individuals' annual home run totals, is employed to predict future home run totals and records in Major League Baseball. Complete home run frequency data from 1903--2005 is analyzed, resulting in annual exponential distributions whose changes can be a used as a measure of progression in the sport and serve as a basis against which record-setting performances can be compared. We show that there is an 80% chance that Barry Bonds' current 73 home run record will be broken in the next 10 years, despite the longevity of previous records held by baseball legends Babe Ruth and Roger Marris.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
