职业寿命研究中马太效应的定量和实证证明
Quantitative and empirical demonstration of the Matthew effect in a study of career longevity
摘要：
马太效应指的是大约两千年前写在《马太福音》中的格言：“因为凡有的，还要加给他们。即使在两千年后，社会学家仍然用这个成语来定性地描述个人进步的动力以及地位和奖励之间的相互作用。对职业生涯的定量研究传统上受到难以衡量进展和缺乏个人职业数据的限制。然而，在某些职业中，有一些定义明确的指标可以量化职业寿命，成功和实力，这些指标共同构成了个体员工的整体成功评级。在这里，我们展示了古老的马修“富人更富”效应的可测试的证据，其中一个人的长寿和过去的成功导致进一步发展他/她的职业生涯的累积优势。我们开发了一个完全可解的随机职业发展模型，定量地结合了马太效应，并验证了我们的模型预测几个竞争激烈的职业。我们使用来自六种高影响力期刊的数据对40万名科学家的职业生涯进行了测试，并通过对四个体育联盟中超过20，000名运动员的职业生涯进行测试来进一步证实我们的发现。我们的模型强调了早期职业发展的重要性，表明许多职业生涯都受到与缺乏经验相关的相对劣势的阻碍。
英文摘要：
The Matthew effect refers to the adage written some two-thousand years ago in the Gospel of St. Matthew: "For to all those who have, more will be given." Even two millennia later, this idiom is used by sociologists to qualitatively describe the dynamics of individual progress and the interplay between status and reward. Quantitative studies of professional careers are traditionally limited by the difficulty in measuring progress and the lack of data on individual careers. However, in some professions, there are well-defined metrics that quantify career longevity, success, and prowess, which together contribute to the overall success rating for an individual employee. Here we demonstrate testable evidence of the age-old Matthew "rich get richer" effect, wherein the longevity and past success of an individual lead to a cumulative advantage in further developing his/her career. We develop an exactly solvable stochastic career progress model that quantitatively incorporates the Matthew effect, and validate our model predictions for several competitive professions. We test our model on the careers of 400,000 scientists using data from six high-impact journals, and further confirm our findings by testing the model on the careers of more than 20,000 athletes in four sports leagues. Our model highlights the importance of early career development, showing that many careers are stunted by the relative disadvantage associated with inexperience.
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