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arXiv 0802.1362cs.GT
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组合市场庄家的复杂性

Complexity of Combinatorial Market Makers

Yiling Chen, Lance Fortnow, Nicolas Lambert, David M. Pennock, Jennifer Wortman

摘要:

我们分析了组合预测市场做市商定价算法的计算复杂性。我们专注于汉森流行的对数市场评分规则做市商(LMSR)。我们的目标是在指数级大的结果空间中隐式地保持正确的LMSR价格。我们研究两个排列组合,其中的结果是对象的排列,和布尔组合,其中的结果是二进制事件的组合。我们研究了三种限制交易者下注的限制性语言,即使在严格限制语言的情况下,我们发现LMSR定价也是$\SP$ -难的,即使同一种语言允许多项式时间匹配而没有做市商。然后,我们提出了一个近似技术的基础上最近的在线排列学习算法的排列市场定价。我们在LMSR定价和大量关于在线学习的文献以及专家建议之间建立的联系可能是独立的兴趣。

英文摘要:

We analyze the computational complexity of market maker pricing algorithms for combinatorial prediction markets. We focus on Hanson's popular logarithmic market scoring rule market maker (LMSR). Our goal is to implicitly maintain correct LMSR prices across an exponentially large outcome space. We examine both permutation combinatorics, where outcomes are permutations of objects, and Boolean combinatorics, where outcomes are combinations of binary events. We look at three restrictive languages that limit what traders can bet on. Even with severely limited languages, we find that LMSR pricing is $\SP$-hard, even when the same language admits polynomial-time matching without the market maker. We then propose an approximation technique for pricing permutation markets based on a recent algorithm for online permutation learning. The connections we draw between LMSR pricing and the vast literature on online learning with expert advice may be of independent interest.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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