We provide a large deviations analysis of deadlock phenomena occurring in distributed systems sharing common resources. In our model transition probabilities of resource allocation and deallocation are time and space dependent. The process is driven by an ergodic Markov chain and is reflected on the boundary of the d-dimensional cube. In the large resource limit, we prove Freidlin-Wentzell estimates, we study the asymptotic of the deadlock time and we show that the quasi-potential is a viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi equation with a Neumann boundary condition. We give a complete analysis of the colliding 2-stacks problem and show an example where the system has a stable attractor which is a limit cycle.
We discuss the ergodic properties of quasi-Markovian stochastic differential equations, providing general conditions that ensure existence and uniqueness of a smooth invariant distribution and exponential convergence of the evolution operator in suitably weighted $L^{\infty}$ spaces, which implies the validity of central limit theorem for the respective solution processes. The main new result is an ergodicity condition for the generalized Langevin equation with configuration-dependent noise and (non-)conservative force.
We provide a probabilistic analysis of the banker algorithm when transition probabilities may depend on time and space. The transition probabilities evolve, as time goes by, along the trajectory of an ergodic Markovian environment, whereas the spatial parameter just acts on long runs. Our model appears as a new (small) step towards more general time and space dependent protocols. Our analysis relies on well-known results in stochastic homogenization theory and investigates the asymptotic behaviour of the rescaled algorithm as the total amount of resource available for allocation tends to the i…
We consider noise perturbations of delay differential equations (DDE) experiencing Hopf bifurcation. The noise is assumed to be exponentially ergodic, i.e. transition density converges to stationary density exponentially fast uniformly in the initial condition. We show that, under an appropriate change of time scale, as the strength of the perturbations decreases to zero, the law of the critical eigenmodes converges to the law of a diffusion process (without delay). We prove the result only for scalar DDE. For vector-valued DDE without proofs see Phys.Rev.E v93, 062104.
This paper provides a large deviation principle for Non-Markovian, Brownian motion driven stochastic differential equations with random coefficients. Similar to Gao and Liu \cite{GL}, this extends the corresponding results collected in Freidlin and Wentzell \cite{FreidlinWentzell}. However, we use a different line of argument, adapting the PDE method of Fleming \cite{Fleming} and Evans and Ishii \cite{EvansIshii} to the path-dependent case, by using backward stochastic differential techniques. Similar to the Markovian case, we obtain a characterization of the action function as the unique boun…
We consider a multi-channel communication system under ALOHA and CSMA protocols, resepctively, in continuous time. We derive probabilistic formulas for the most important quantities: the numbers of sending attempts and the number of successfully delivered messages in a given time interval. We derive (1) explicit formulas for the large-time limiting throughput, (2) introduce an explicit and ergodic Markov chain for a deeper probabilistic analysis, and use this to (3) derive exponential asymptotics for rare events for these quantities in the limit of large time, via large-deviation principles.
In this paper we revisit the Markovian queueing system with a single server, infinite capacity queue and the special queue skipping policy. Customers arrive in batches, but are served one by one according to any conservative discipline. The size of the arriving batch becomes known upon its arrival and at any time instant the total number of customers in the system is also known. According to the adopted queue skipping policy if a batch, which size is greater than the current system size, arrives to the system, all current customers in the system are removed from it and the new batch is placed …
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other fields. In this paper, we study the large deviations for nonlinear Hawkes processes. The large deviations for linear Hawkes processes has been studied by Bordenave and Torrisi. In this paper, we prove first a large deviation principle for a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, that is, a Markovian Hawkes process with nonlinear rate and exponential exci…
Motivated by queues with many servers, we study Brownian steady-state approximations for continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs). Our approximations are based on diffusion models (rather than a diffusion limit) whose steady-state, we prove, approximates that of the Markov chain with notable precision. Strong approximations provide such "limitless" approximations for process dynamics. Our focus here is on steady-state distributions, and the diffusion model that we propose is tractable relative to strong approximations. Within an asymptotic framework, in which a scale parameter $n$ is taken large,…
The paper considers an Euler discretization based numerical scheme for approximating functionals of invariant distribution of an ergodic diffusion. Convergence of the numerical scheme is shown for suitably chosen discretization step, and a thorough error analysis is conducted by proving central limit theorem and moderate deviation principle for the error term. The paper is a first step in understanding efficiency of discretization based numerical schemes for estimating invariant distributions, which is comparatively much less studied than the schemes used for generating approximate trajectorie…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this paper, we study linear Hawkes process with an exponential kernel in the asymptotic regime where the initial intensity of the Hawkes process is large. We establish large deviations for Hawkes processes in this regime as well as the regime when both the initial intensity and the time are large…
We establish the existence (and in an appropriate sense uniqueness) of Markovian solutions for ergodic BSDEs under a novel monotonicity condition. Our monotonicity condition allows us to prove existence even when the driver f has arbitrary (in particular super-quadratic) growth in z, which reveals an interesting trade-off between monotonicity and growth for ergodic BSDEs. The technique of proof is to establish a probabilistic representation of the derivative of the Markovian solution, and then use this representation to obtain a-priori estimates. Our study is motivated by applications to ergod…
For ${1/2}<α<1$, we propose the MDP analysis for family $$ S^α_n=\frac{1}{n^α}\sum_{i=1}^nH(X_{i-1}), n\ge 1, $$ where $(X_n)_{n\ge 0}$ be a homogeneous ergodic Markov chain, $X_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$, when the spectrum of operator $P_x$ is continuous. The vector-valued function $H$ is not assumed to be bounded but the Lipschitz continuity of $H$ is required. The main helpful tools in our approach are Poisson's equation and Stochastic Exponential; the first enables to replace the original family by $\frac{1}{n^α}M_n$ with a martingale $M_n$ while the second to avoid the direct Laplace transform an…
For ${1/2}<α<1$, we propose the MDP analysis for family $$ S^α_n=\frac{1}{n^α}\sum_{i=1}^nH(X_{i-1}), n\ge 1, $$ where $(X_n)_{n\ge 0}$ be a homogeneous ergodic Markov chain, $X_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$, when the spectrum of operator $P_x$ is continuous. The vector-valued function $H$ is not assumed to be bounded but the Lipschitz continuity of $H$ is required. The main helpful tools in our approach are Poisson equation and Stochastic Exponential; the first enables to replace the original family by $\frac{1}{n^α}M_n$ with a martingale $M_n$ while the second to avoid the direct Laplace transform anal…
To profit from price oscillations, investors frequently use threshold-type strategies where changes in the portfolio position are triggered by some indicators reaching prescribed levels. In this paper, we investigate threshold-type strategies in the context of ergodic control. We make the first steps towards their optimization by proving the ergodic properties of related functionals. Assuming Markovian price increments satisfying a minorization condition and (one-sided) boundedness we show, in particular, that for given thresholds, the distribution of the gains converges in the long run. We al…
We study a fairly general class of time-homogeneous stochastic evolutions driven by noises that are not white in time. As a consequence, the resulting processes do not have the Markov property. In this setting, we obtain constructive criteria for the uniqueness of stationary solutions that are very close in spirit to the existing criteria for Markov processes. In the case of discrete time, where the driving noise consists of a stationary sequence of Gaussian random variables, we give optimal conditions on the spectral measure for our criteria to be applicable. In particular, we show that under…
A large deviation principle is established for a two-scale stochastic system in which the slow component is a continuous process given by a small noise finite dimensional Itô stochastic differential equation, and the fast component is a finite state pure jump process. Previous works have considered settings where the coupling between the components is weak in a certain sense. In the current work we study a fully coupled system in which the drift and diffusion coefficient of the slow component and the jump intensity function and jump distribution of the fast process depend on the states of both…
Consider a random walk in a time-dependent random environment on the lattice Zd. Recently, Rassoul-Agha, Seppalainen and Yilmaz [RSY11] proved a general large deviation principle under mild ergodicity assumptions on the random environment for such a random walk, establishing first level 2 and 3 large deviation principles. Here we present two alternative short proofs of the level 1 large deviations under mild ergodicity assumptions on the environment: one for the continuous time case and another one for the discrete time case. Both proofs provide the existence, continuity and convexity of the…
We take the point of view of the particle in a multidimensional nearest neighbor random walk in random environment (RWRE). We prove a quenched large deviation principle and derive a variational formula for the quenched rate function. Most of the previous results in this area rely on the subadditive ergodic theorem. We employ a different technique which is based on a minimax theorem. Large deviation principles for RWRE have been proven for i.i.d. nestling environments subject to a moment condition and for ergodic uniformly elliptic environments. We assume only that the environment is ergodic an…
We study a general class of random walks driven by a uniquely ergodic Markovian environment. Under a coupling condition on the environment we obtain strong ergodicity properties and concentration inequalities for the environment as seen from the position of the walker, i.e the environment process. We also obtain ergodicity of the uniquely ergodic measure of the environment process as well as continuity as a function of the jump rates of the walker. As a consequence we obtain several limit theorems, such as law of large numbers, Einstein relation, central limit theorem and concentration propert…
One dimensional excited random walk has been extensively studied for bounded, i.i.d. cookie environments. In this case, many important properties of the walk including transience or recurrence, positivity or non-positivity of the speed, and the limiting distribution of the position of the walker are all characterized by a single parameter $δ$, the total expected drift per site. In the more general case of stationary ergodic environments, things are not so well understood. If all cookies are positive then the same threshold for transience vs. recurrence holds, even if the cookie stacks are unbo…
Deviation of ergodic sums is studied for substitution dynamical systems with a matrix that admits eigenvalues of modulus 1. We consider the corresponding eigenfunctions, and in Theorem 1.1 we prove that the limit inferior of the ergodic sums is bounded for every point in the phase space. In Theorem 1.2, we prove existence of limit distributions along certain exponential subsequences of times for substitutions of constant length. Under additional assumptions, we prove that ergodic integrals satisfy the Central Limit Theorem (Theorem 1.3, Theorem 1.9).
In this paper a concentration inequality is proved for the deviation in the ergodic theorem in the case of discrete time observations of diffusion processes. The proof is based on the geometric ergodicity property for diffusion processes. As an application we consider the nonparametric pointwise estimation problem for the drift coefficient under discrete time observations.
We establish a moderate deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimator of the four parameters of a geometrically ergodic Heston process. We also obtain moderate deviations for the maximum likelihood estimator of the couple of dimensional and drift parameters of a generalized squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We restrict ourselves to the most tractable case where the dimensional parameter satisfies $a>2$ and the drift coefficient is such that $b<0$. In contrast to the previous literature, parameters are estimated simultaneously.
Periodic measures are the time-periodic counterpart to invariant measures for dynamical systems and can be used to characterise the long-term periodic behaviour of stochastic systems. This paper gives sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness and geometric convergence of a periodic measure for time-periodic Markovian processes on a locally compact metric space in great generality. In particular, we apply these results in the context of time-periodic weakly dissipative stochastic differential equations, gradient stochastic differential equations as well as Langevin equations. We will …
In this note, we present a version of Hoeffding's inequality in a continuous-time setting, where the data stream comes from a uniformly ergodic diffusion process. Similar to the well-studied case of Hoeffding's inequality for discrete-time uniformly ergodic Markov chain, the proof relies on techniques ranging from martingale theory to classical Hoeffding's lemma as well as the notion of deviation kernel of diffusion process. We present two examples to illustrate our results. In the first example we consider large deviation probability on the occupation time of the Jacobi diffusion, a popular p…
We consider multiple time scales systems of stochastic differential equations with small noise in random environments. We prove a quenched large deviations principle with explicit characterization of the action functional. The random medium is assumed to be stationary and ergodic. In the course of the proof we also prove related quenched ergodic theorems for controlled diffusion processes in random environments that are of independent interest. The proof relies entirely on probabilistic arguments, allowing to obtain detailed information on how the rare event occurs. We derive a control, equiva…
First, under a geometric ergodicity assumption, we provide some limit theorems and some probability inequalities for the bifurcating Markov chains (BMC). The BMC model was introduced by Guyon to detect cellular aging from cell lineage, and our aim is thus to complete his asymptotic results. The deviation inequalities are then applied to derive first result on the moderate deviation principle (MDP) for a functional of the BMC with a restricted range of speed, but with a function which can be unbounded. Next, under a uniform geometric ergodicity assumption, we provide deviation inequalities for …
Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $λ_n$ along which we will be able to estimate the conditional probability $P(X_{λ_n+1}=x|X_0,...,X_{λ_n})$ from data segment $(X_0,...,X_{λ_n})$ in a pointwise consistent way for a restricted class of stationary and ergodic finite or countably infinite alphabet time series which includes among others all stationary and ergodic finitarily Markovian processes. If the statio…
We prove pathwise large deviation principles of slow variables in slow-fast systems in the limit of time-scale separation tending to infinity. In the limit regime we consider, the convergence of the slow variable to its deterministic limit and the convergence of the fast variable to equilibrium are competing at the same scale. The large deviation principle is proven by relating the large deviation problem to solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, for which well-posedness was established in the companion paper [arXiv:1912.06579]. We cast the rate functions in action-integral form and i…
In this paper, the large deviations on trajectory level for ergodic Markov processes are studied. These processes take values in the non-negative quadrant of the two dimension lattice and are concentrated on step-wise functions. The rates of jumps towards the axes (jump down) depend on the position of the process -- the higher the position, the greater the rate. The rates of jumps going in the same direction as the axes (jump up) are constants. Therefore the processes are ergodic. The large deviations are studied under equal scalings of both space and time. The scaled versions of the processes…
The present work deals with the global solvability as well as asymptotic analysis of stochastic generalized Burgers-Huxley (SGBH) equation perturbed by space-time white noise in a bounded interval of $\mathbb{R}$. We first prove the existence of unique mild as well as strong solution to SGBH equation and then obtain the existence of an invariant measure. Later, we establish two major properties of the Markovian semigroup associated with the solutions of SGBH equation, that is, irreducibility and strong Feller property. These two properties guarantees the uniqueness of invariant measures and er…
Consider the partial sums {S_t} of a real-valued functional F(Phi(t)) of a Markov chain {Phi(t)} with values in a general state space. Assuming only that the Markov chain is geometrically ergodic and that the functional F is bounded, the following conclusions are obtained: 1. Spectral theory: Well-behaved solutions can be constructed for the ``multiplicative Poisson equation''. 2. A ``multiplicative'' mean ergodic theorem: For all complex αin a neighborhood of the origin, the normalized mean of \exp(αS_t) converges exponentially fast to a solution of the multiplicative Poisson equation. 3. Edg…
In this paper, we introduce the concepts of the large deviations theorem of weaker types, i.e., type I, type I', type II, type II', type III, and type III', and present a systematic study of the ergodic and chaotic properties of dynamical systems satisfying the large eviations theorem of various types. Some characteristics of the ergodic measure are obtained and then applied to prove that every dynamical system satisfying the large deviations theorem of type I' is ergodic, which is equivalent to the large deviations theorem of type II' in this regard, and that every uniquely ergodic dynamical …
In this paper we look at ergodic BSDEs in the case where the forward dynamics are given by the solution to a non-autonomous (time-periodic coefficients) Ornstein-Uhlenbeck SDE with Lévy noise, taking values in a separable Hilbert space. We establish the existence of a unique bounded solution to an infinite horizon discounted BSDE. We then use the vanishing discount approach, together with coupling techniques, to obtain a Markovian solution to the EBSDE. We also prove uniqueness under certain growth conditions. Applications are then given, in particular to risk-averse ergodic optimal control an…
We show the existence of a limiting distribution $\cD_\cC$ of the adequately normalized discrepancy function of a random translation on a torus relative to a strictly convex set $\cC$. Using a correspondence between the small divisors in the Fourier series of the discrepancy function and lattices with short vectors, and mixing of diagonal flows on the space of lattices, we identify $\cD_\cC$ with the distribution of the level sets of a function defined on the product of the space of lattices with an infinite dimensional torus. We apply our results to counting lattice points in slanted cylinder…
Level 2.5 large deviations and uncertainty relations for self-interacting jump processes: tilting constructions and the emergence of time-scale separation
University of Nottingham（诺丁汉大学）；Centre for the Mathematics and Theoretical Physics of Quantum Non-Equilibrium Systems, University of Nottingham（诺丁汉大学量子非平衡系统数学与理论物理中心）
In this paper we find nonasymptotic exponential upper bounds for the deviation in the ergodic theorem for families of homogeneous Markov processes. We find some sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity uniformly over a parametric family. We apply this property to the nonasymptotic nonparametric estimation problem for ergodic diffusion processes.
Level 2.5 large deviations and uncertainty relations for non-Markov self-interacting dynamics
School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham（诺丁汉大学物理与天文学院）；Centre for the Mathematics and Theoretical Physics of Quantum Non-Equilibrium Systems, University of Nottingham（诺丁汉大学量子非平衡系统数学与理论物理中心）；Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校统计与运筹学系）
We study a family of McKean-Vlasov (mean-field) type ergodic optimal control problems with linear control, and quadratic dependence on control of the cost function. For this class of problems we establish existence and uniqueness of an optimal control. We propose an $N$-particles Markovian optimal control problem approximating the McKean-Vlasov one and we prove the convergence in relative entropy, total variation and Wasserstein distance of the law of the former to the law of the latter when $N$ goes to infinity. Some McKean-Vlasov optimal control problems with singular cost function and the r…
We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time markovian walk governed by his specific transition matrix. With this assumption, we first derive an upper bound for the reproduction numbers. Then we assume that a walker is in one of the states: susceptible, infectious, or recovered. An infectious walker remains infectious during a certain characteristic time. If an infectious walker meets a susceptible one on th…
