客观贝叶斯统计
Objective Bayesian Statistics
摘要:
贝叶斯推断-尽管在物理学和化学中越来越流行-至今仍受到先验概率概念的限制。它的一些支持者认为,这种不确定性是判断的主观性的不可避免的后果-即使是科学的。我们认为,先验可以被定义为唯一的,如果手头的统计模型具有对称性,如果随后的置信区间受到频率论的标准。此外,它是通过一个例子,从最近的实验核物理,这一过程可以扩展到对称性破缺的模型。
英文摘要:
Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the subjectivity of judgements --- even scientific ones. We argue that priors can be defined uniquely if the statistical model at hand possesses a symmetry and if the ensuing confidence intervals are subjected to a frequentist criterion. Moreover, it is shown via an example taken from recent experimental nuclear physics, that this procedure can be extended to models with broken symmetry.
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