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arXiv physics/0608091physics.soc-phcond-mat.dis-nncond-mat.stat-mechq-fin.TR
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金融市场少数者博弈中的异常波动及相关多主体模型

Anomalous fluctuations in Minority Games and related multi-agent models of financial markets

Tobias Galla, Giancarlo Mosetti, Yi-Cheng Zhang

摘要:

我们回顾了最近的方法来模拟金融市场的基础上多智能体系统。在简要总结了真实市场时间序列中观察到的基本程式化事实之后,我们讨论了目前用于建模金融市场的一些简单的基于代理的系统。这里最突出的例子之一是少数者博弈(MG),我们将更详细地讨论它。经过简单的讨论,其基本设置和一般的现象学,我们总结了统计力学分析的主要结果,并讨论了出现的风格化的事实在扩展的MG附近的有效和可预测的制度之间的相变。然后,我们转向更现实的变体,其中包括不同的代理人群体,具有不同的记忆能力,不同的交易倾向和对市场未来发展的不同期望。最后,我们给出了一个简短的展望在这方面的潜在的未来工作。

英文摘要:

We review the recent approaches to modelling financial markets based on multi-agent systems. After a brief summary of the basic stylised facts observed in real-market time-series we discuss some simple agent-based systems which are currently used to model financial markets. One of the most prominent examples is here the Minority Game (MG), which we address in some more detail. After a brief discussion of its basic setup and general phenomenology we summarise the main findings of the statistical mechanics analysis and discuss the emergence of stylised facts in extensions of the MG near their phase transitions between efficient and predictable regimes. We then turn towards more realistic variants which comprise heterogeneous populations of agents, with different memory capabilities, different inclinations to trade and varying expectations on the future evolution of the market. Finally we give a short outlook on potential future work in this area.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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