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论全球变暖对破纪录气温统计的作用

On the Role of Global Warming on the Statistics of Record-Breaking Temperatures

S. Redner, Mark R. Petersen

备注：
11 pages, 6 figures, 2-column revtex4 format. For submission to Journal of Climate. Revised version has some new results and some errors corrected. Reformatted for Journal of Climate. Second revision has an added reference. In the third revision one sentence that explains the simulations is reworded for clarity. New revision 10/3/06 has considerable additions and new results. Revision on 11/8/06 contains a number of minor corrections and is the version that will appear in Phys. Rev. E
发表信息：
Phys. Rev. E 74, 061114 (2006)
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摘要：

我们从理论上研究破纪录的每日温度的统计数据的长期趋势，并验证这些预测使用蒙特卡罗模拟和数据从费城，其中126年的每日温度数据。使用极端的统计，我们得出的数量和记录的温度事件的幅度，在费城观测到的高斯日温度分布的基础上，作为一个函数的数量从数据开始的流逝的年。我们进一步考虑全球变暖的情况，平均温度随时间系统地增加。我们认为，目前的变暖率是不足以测量影响的频率记录温度事件的时间范围内的观测，这一结论是支持数值模拟和费城温度数据。

英文摘要：

We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature data is available. Using extreme statistics, we derive the number and the magnitude of record temperature events, based on the observed Gaussian daily temperatures distribution in Philadelphia, as a function of the number of elapsed years from the start of the data. We further consider the case of global warming, where the mean temperature systematically increases with time. We argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events over the time range of the observations, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and the Philadelphia temperature data.

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