印度河上游兴都库什-喀喇昆仑-喜马拉雅地区的主要气候趋势和径流响应
Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus basin
摘要：
我们分析了最高，最低和平均温度（Tx，Tn和Tavg，分别），日较差（DTR）和降水从18个站（1250-4500米asl）的重叠记录期间（1995-2012），并分别从他们的长期记录（1961-2012）的6个站。我们应用Mann-Kendall检验对序列独立的时间序列评估趋势的存在性，而真实斜率使用Sen斜率方法估计。此外，我们统计评估的空间尺度（现场）的显着性本地气候趋势在10个确定的子区域的UIB和分析是否空间显着（现场显着）气候趋势定性同意的趋势，在相应的子区域的流量。在最近的一段时间（1995-2012），我们发现一个很好的协议，大多数领域显着冷却（变暖）在季风季节，即7月至10月（3月至5月和11月），这是较高的幅度相对于长期趋势（1961-2012年）。我们还发现……所观察到的水文气候趋势，在季风系统和西风干扰的某些变化的驱动下，表明占主导地位（抑制）坚定不移的（冰川）径流制度，大大改变了整体水文的UIB在未来。这些发现在很大程度上有助于解决喀喇昆仑异常的水文气候解释。
英文摘要：
We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m asl) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961-2012). We apply Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen s slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July-October (March-May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961-2012). We also find ... The observed hydroclimatic trends, being driven by certain changes in the monsoonal system and westerly disturbances, indicate dominance (suppression) of nival (glacial) runoff regime, altering substantially the overall hydrology of UIB in future. These findings largely contribute to address the hydroclimatic explanation of the Karakoram Anomaly.
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