破纪录的气温揭示了气候变暖
Record-breaking temperatures reveal a warming climate
摘要：
我们提出了一个数学分析的记录从独立的随机变量与漂移的平均值。对于首阶，记录速率的变化与漂移速度与基础分布的标准差之比成正比。我们将该理论应用于给定日历日的每日温度的时间序列，从欧洲和美国气象站的历史气候记录以及再分析数据中获得。我们的结论是，平均温度的变化增加了破纪录事件的速度在一个温和的，但显着的方式：欧洲站的数据涵盖的时间段1976-2005年，我们发现，约5的17个高温记录平均在2005年可以归因于气候变暖。
英文摘要：
We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the underlying distribution. We apply the theory to time series of daily temperatures for given calendar days, obtained from historical climate recordings of European and American weather stations as well as re-analysis data. We conclude that the change in the mean temperature has increased the rate of record breaking events in a moderate but significant way: For the European station data covering the time period 1976-2005, we find that about 5 of the 17 high temperature records observed on average in 2005 can be attributed to the warming climate.
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