The impinging solar wind and its magnetic field perturbed the Earth's magnetosphere and create magnetic storms and substorms. The Earth's magnetosphere expands (contracts) during periods of southward (northward) IMF. It is shown that these magnetospheric expansions and contractions account for poorly understood aspects of magnetic storm-substorm relationship, bifurcation of the magnetotail and the appearance of theta aurora. Quantitative theory and calculations in agreement with the suggested model of solar wind/IMF-magnetosphere coupling are presented. Pre-noon and post-noon dents on the magnetopause are expected to appear during a long period of strong northward IMF. The contracting and expanding magnetosphere accumulates solar wind plasma and its magnetic field. The accumulated energy is delivered into the polar regions and creates auroral activity intensification.
The dynamical relationship between magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms presents one of the most controversial problems of contemporary geospace research. Here, we tackle this issue by applying a causal inference approach to two corresponding indices in conjunction with several relevant solar wind variables. We demonstrate that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest and common driver of both, storms and substorms, and explains their the previously reported association. These results hold during both solar maximum and minimum phases and suggest that…
The direct role of successive intense magnetospheric substorms in injecting/energizing particles into the storm-time ring current is still debated and controversial. Whereas in the recent past it has been observed the absence of a net information flow between magnetic storms and substorms, previous in-situ satellite observations have evidenced that ionospheric-origin ions dominate the population of the ring current during the main phase of geomagnetic storms. As a matter of fact, the controversy arises mainly by the use of sophisticated data-driven techniques somewhat contradicting in-situ mea…
Recent results by the Van Allen Probes mission showed that the occurrence of energetic ion injections inside geosynchronous orbit could be very frequent throughout the main phase of a geomagnetic storm. Understanding, therefore, the formation and evolution of energetic particle injections is critical in order to quantify their effect in the inner magnetosphere. We present a case study of a substorm event that occurred during a weak storm $\textit{ Dst }$ $\sim$ -40nT on 14 July 2013. Van Allen Probe B, inside geosynchronous orbit, observed two energetic proton injections within 10min, with dif…
During the recovery phase of a magnetic storm, fluxes of relativistic ($>1$ MeV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere ($3\le L \le 6$) increase to beyond pre-storm levels, reaching a peak about 4 days after the initiation of the storm. In order to account for the generation of these "killer electrons", a model is presented primarily based on stochastic acceleration of electrons by enhanced whistler-mode chorus. In terms of a quasi-linear formulation, a kinetic (Fokker-Planck) equation for the electron energy distribution is derived, comprising an energy diffusion coefficient based on gyroreson…
Plasma pressure distribution in the inner magnetosphere is one of the key parameters for understanding the main magnetospheric processes including geomagnetic storms and substorms. However, the pressure profiles obtained from in-situ particle measurements by the high-altitude satellites do not allow tracking the pressure variations related to the storms and substorms, because a time interval needed to do this generally exceeds the characteristic times of them. On contrary, fast movement of low-altitude satellites makes it possible to retrieve quasi-instantaneous profiles of plasma pressure alo…
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has proven to be very successful in forecasting variety of irregular magnetospheric/ionospheric processes like geomagnetic storms and substorms. SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for these indices using ANN. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network con…
The dynamics of the Earth's magnetosphere exhibits strongly fluctuating patterns as well as non-stationary and non-linear interactions, more pronounced during magnetospheric substorms and magnetic storms. This complex dynamics comprises both stochastic and deterministic features occurring at different time scales. Here we investigate the stochastic nature of the magnetospheric substorm dynamics by analysing the Markovian character of SuperMAG SME and SML geomagnetic indices. By performing the Chapman-Kolmogorov test, the SME/SML dynamics appears to satisfy the Markov condition at scales below …
We identify all fast-mode forward shocks, whose sheath regions resulted in a moderate (56 cases) or intense (38 cases) geomagnetic storm during 18.5 years from January 1997 to June 2015. We study their main properties, interplanetary causes and geo-effects. We find that half (49/94) such shocks are associated with interacting coronal mass ejections (CMEs), as they are either shocks propagating into a preceding CME (35 cases) or a shock propagating into the sheath region of a preceding shock (14 cases). About half (22/45) of the shocks driven by isolated transients and which have geo-effective …
The multi-scale expansions and contractions of the Earth's magnetosphere explain fundamental issues of magnetic storm-substorm relationship. This magnetospheric behavior is in agreement with a model of 3D-spirally-faster-inward-oscillating dynamic fractal structure of the universe. This fractal like structure accounts for the found puzzling similarity between the near and most distant cosmos and for the calculated fractal dimensions of the observed distributions of galaxies. The introduced dynamic fractal dimension d(r) and formula for unifying force / F(r) = ma(r) = constant/[r]exp(d(r)) / pr…
Forbush decrease (FD), discovered by Scott E. Forbush about 80 years ago, is reffered to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appear to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships. The method of selection and validation of FD events are very important to cosmic ray scientists. We have deployed a new computer software to determine the amplitude and t…
We characterize the response of the quiet time (no substorms or storms) large-scale ionospheric transient equivalent currents to north-south and south-north IMF turnings by using a dynamical network of ground-based magnetometers. Canonical correlation between all pairs of SuperMAG magnetometer stations in the Northern Hemisphere (magnetic latitude (MLAT) 50-82$^{\circ}$) is used to establish the extent of near-simultaneous magnetic response between regions of magnetic local time-MLAT. Parameters and maps that describe spatial-temporal correlation are used to characterize the system and its res…
More than 140 isolated non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMSs) of various intensities from extreme to weak are considered, which are reliably identified with solar eruptive sources (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). The analysis aims to obtain a possibly complete picture of the relationship between the transit time of propagation of CMEs and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth (more precisely, the time interval dtp from the moment of an eruption until the peak of the corresponding GMS) and the maximum intensity of this GMS, as measured by the disturbance storm …
Solar activities have significant impact on the member of the solar systems including earth. As earth is a planet with its own magnetic field, solar emissions with magnetic fields do interact with the earth's own magnetic field to create geo-magnetic disturbances. Substorms are geo-magnetic disturbances of shorter duration (few hours or less) which are mainly concentrated in the auroral region and originates due to the ionospheric current injection at high latitudes. Supersubstorm are intense substorms as identified by peak activities in geo-magnetic indices. In this thesis, we have investigat…
GIC--Related Observations During the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm in the United States
Space Weather Lab, George Mason University（乔治梅森大学空间天气实验室）；University of Cape Town（开普敦大学）；NSF NCAR/HAO（美国国家科学基金会国家大气研究中心/高空观测部）；NASA/GSFC（美国国家航空航天局戈达德太空飞行中心）；Cooperative Institute in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)（环境科学合作研究所）；NOAA/SWPC（美国国家海洋和大气管理局空间天气预报中心）
The Equations of Reduced Magnetohydrodynamics in Dipole Coordinates
The Catholic University of America（美国天主教大学）；Geospace Physics Laboratory NASA Goddard Spaceflight Laboratory（NASA戈达德太空飞行中心地球空间物理实验室）；Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校天文学系）
The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast tool for the geomagnetic storm intensity. Several CME and flare parameters as well as the effect of successive-CME occurrence in changing the probability for a certain range of Dst index values, were examined. The results confirm some of already known relationships between remotely-observed properties of solar eruptive events and geomagnetic storms, namely t…
The composition of ions plays a crucial role for the fundamental plasma properties in the terrestrial magnetosphere. We investigate the oxygen-to-hydrogen ratio in the near-Earth magnetosphere from -10 RE<XGSE}< 10 RE. The results are based on seven years of ion flux measurements in the energy range ~10 keV to ~955 keV from the RAPID and CIS instruments on board the Cluster satellites. We find that (1) hydrogen ions at ~10 keV show only a slight correlation with the geomagnetic conditions and interplanetary magnetic field changes. They are best correlated with the solar wind dynamic pressure a…
Magnetic reconnection requires the violation of the frozen-in condition which ties gyrating charged particles to the magnetic field inhibiting diffusion. Ongoing reconnection has been identified in near-Earth space as being responsible for the excitation of substorms, magnetic storms, generation of field aligned currents and their consequences, the wealth of auroral phenomena. Its theoretical understanding is now on the verge of being completed. Reconnection takes place in thin current sheets. Analytical concepts proceeded gradually down to the microscopic scale, the scale of the electron skin…
We present a review of the different aspects associated with the interaction of successive CMEs in the corona and inner heliosphere, focusing on the initiation of series of CMEs, their interaction in the heliosphere, the particle acceleration associated with successive CMEs, and the effect of compound events on Earth's magnetosphere. The two main mechanisms resulting in the eruption of series of CMEs are sympathetic eruptions and homologous eruptions. The interaction of successive CMEs has been observed remotely in coronagraphs and heliospheric imagers, and inferred from in situ measurements. …
We present observations of the same magnetic cloud made near Earth by the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE), Wind, and the Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) mission comprising the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) B and THEMIS C spacecraft, and later by Juno at a distance of 1.2 AU. The spacecraft were close to radial alignment throughout the event, with a longitudinal separation of $3.6^{\circ}$ between Juno and the spacecraft near Earth. The magnetic cloud likely originated f…
Erroneous GNSS positioning, failures in spacecraft operations and power outages due to geomagnetically induced currents are severe threats originating from space weather. Having knowledge of potential impacts on modern society in advance is key for many end-user applications. This covers not only the timing of severe geomagnetic storms but also predictions of substorm onsets at polar latitudes. In this study we aim at contributing to the timing problem of space weather impacts and propose a new method to predict the solar wind propagation delay between Lagrangian point L1 and the Earth based o…
Regression to the Mean can Explain Saturation of Geomagnetic Storms
The Catholic University of America（天主教大学）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心）；University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Lancaster University（兰卡斯特大学）；University of Alaska, Fairbanks（阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校）；Air Force Research Laboratory（空军研究实验室）
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are intense solar explosive eruptions. CMEs are highly important players in solar-terrestrial relationships, and they have important consequences for major geomagnetic storms and energetic particle events. It has been unclear how CMEs evolve when they propagate in the heliosphere. Here we report an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) consisting of multiple magnetic flux ropes measured by WIND on March 25-26, 1998. These magnetic flux ropes were merging with each other. The observations indicate that internal interactions (reconnections) within multi-flux-r…
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example o…
Scalable Machine Learning Analysis of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Data
University of Delaware（德克萨斯大学）；Boston University（波士顿大学）；Catholic University of America（美国天主教大学）；Georgia State University（佐治亚州立大学）；Southwest Research Institute（西南研究院）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国国家航空航天局戈达德飞行中心）；Drexel University（德雷塞尔大学）
