In this paper a new estimator for the transition density $π$ of an homogeneous Markov chain is considered. We introduce an original contrast derived from regression framework and we use a model selection method to estimate $π$ under mild conditions. The resulting estimate is adaptive with an optimal rate of convergence over a large range of anisotropic Besov spaces $B_{2,\infty}^{(α_1,α_2)}$. Some simulations are also presented.
Markov chain models are used in various fields, such behavioral sciences or econometrics. Although the goodness of fit of the model is usually assessed by large sample approximation, it is desirable to use conditional tests if the sample size is not large. We study Markov bases for performing conditional tests of the toric homogeneous Markov chain model, which is the envelope exponential family for the usual homogeneous Markov chain model. We give a complete description of a Markov basis for the following cases: i) two-state, arbitrary length, ii) arbitrary finite state space and length of thr…
We derive a Markov basis consisting of moves of degree at most three for two-state toric homogeneous Markov chain model of arbitrary length without parameters for initial states. Our basis consists of moves of degree three and degree one, which alter the initial frequencies, in addition to moves of degree two and degree one for toric homogeneous Markov chain model with parameters for initial states.
The goal of this paper is to describe conditions which guarantee a central limit theorem for random variables, which distributions are controled by hidden Markov chains. We proved that when a Markov chain is ergodic and random variables fullfiled Lindeberg's condition then the Central Limit Theorem is true.
We establish a simple variance inequality for U-statistics whose underlying sequence of random variables is an ergodic Markov Chain. The constants in this inequality are explicit and depend on computable bounds on the mixing rate of the Markov Chain. We apply this result to derive the strong law of large number for U-statistics of a Markov Chain under conditions which are close from being optimal.
In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular arrays of time-inhomogeneous Markov chains, defined by some families of contracting Markov kernels. Using the Dobrushin's contraction coefficients for various metrics, we show that the distribution of such Markov chains can be approximated locally with the distribution of ergodic Markov chains and we also study some mixing properties. From our approximation r…
We elaborate the idea behind Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in a mathematically coherent, yet simple and understandable way. To this end, we proof a pivotal convergence theorem for finite Markov chains and a minimal version of the Perron-Frobenius theorem. Subsequently, we briefly discuss two fundamental MCMC methods, the Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings sampler. Only very basic knowledge about matrices, convergence of real sequences and probability theory is required.
The main objective of this paper is to establish bootstrap uniform functional central limit theorem for Harris recurrent Markov chains over uniformly bounded classes of functions. We show that the result can be generalized also to the unbounded case. To avoid some complicated mixing conditions, we make use of the well-known regeneration properties of Markov chains. We show that in the atomic case the proof of the bootstrap uniform central limit theorem for Markov chains for functions dominated by a function in $L^{2}$ space proposed by Radulović (2004) can be significantly simplified. Finally,…
We obtain a perfect sampling characterization of weak ergodicity for backward products of finite stochastic matrices, and equivalently, simultaneous tail triviality of the corresponding nonhomogeneous Markov chains. Applying these ideas to hidden Markov models, we show how to sample exactly from the finite-dimensional conditional distributions of the signal process given infinitely many observations, using an algorithm which requires only an almost surely finite number of observations to actually be accessed. A notion of "successful" coupling is introduced and its occurrence is characterized i…
We consider dependence coefficients for stationary Markov chains. We emphasize on some equivalencies for reversible Markov chains. We improve some known results and provide a necessary condition for Markov chains based on Archimedean copulas to be exponential $ρ$-mixing. We analyze the example of the Mardia and Frechet copula families using small sets.
We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Cesàro sense.
This paper brings some insights of $ψ'$-mixing, $ψ^*$-mixing and $ψ$-mixing for copula-based Markov chains and the perturbations of their copulas. We provide new tools to check Markov chains for $ψ$-mixing or $ψ'$-mixing, and also show that perturbations of $ψ'$-mixing copula-based Markov chains are $ψ'$-mixing while perturbations of $ψ$-mixing Markov chains are not necessarily $ψ$-mixing Markov chains, even when the perturbed copula is $ψ-mixing$. Some examples of copula families are considered. A statistical study is provided to emphasize the impact of perturbations on copula-based Markov ch…
Our purpose is to prove central limit theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain under the condition of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain in Cesàro sense. Furthermore, we obtain a corresponding moderate deviation theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain by Gärtner-Ellis theorem and exponential equivalent method.
The goal of this expository paper is to describe conditions which guarantee a central limit theorem for functionals of general state space Markov chains. This is done with a view towards Markov chain Monte Carlo settings and hence the focus is on the connections between drift and mixing conditions and their implications. In particular, we consider three commonly cited central limit theorems and discuss their relationship to classical results for mixing processes. Several motivating examples are given which range from toy one-dimensional settings to complicated settings encountered in Markov ch…
The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is allowed to switch from positive to negative extremes or vice versa, the distribution of the tail chain increment may depend on the sign of the tail chain on the previous step. But even then, the forward and backward tail chain mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. As a consequence, the finite-dimensional distributions of the Markov…
For a Markov chain both the detailed balance condition and the cycle Kolmogorov condition are algebraic binomials. This remark suggests to study reversible Markov chains with the tool of Algebraic Statistics, such as toric statistical models. One of the results of this study in an algebraic parameterization of reversible Markov transitions and their invariant probability.
We prove that the three-state toric homogenous Markov chain model has Markov degree two. In algebraic terminology this means, that a certain class of toric ideals are generated by quadratic binomials. This was conjectured by Haws, Martin del Campo, Takemura and Yoshida, who proved that they are generated by binomials of degree six or less.
