Motivated by studying asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in stochastic volatility (SV) models, in this paper we investigate likelihood estimation in state space models. We first prove, under some regularity conditions, there is a consistent sequence of roots of the likelihood equation that is asymptotically normal with the inverse of the Fisher information as its variance. With an extra assumption that the likelihood equation has a unique root for each $n$, then there is a consistent sequence of estimators of the unknown parameters. If, in addition, the supremum of the log likelihood function is integrable, the MLE exists and is strongly consistent. Edgeworth expansion of the approximate solution of likelihood equation is also established. Several examples, including Markov switching models, ARMA models, (G)ARCH models and stochastic volatility (SV) models, are given for illustration.
Multiple root estimation problems in statistical inference arise in many contexts in the literature. In the context of maximum likelihood estimation, the existence of multiple roots causes uncertainty in the computation of maximum likelihood estimators using hill-climbing algorithms, and consequent difficulties in the resulting statistical inference. In this paper, we study the multiple roots phenomenon in maximum likelihood estimation for factor analysis. We prove that the corresponding likelihood equations have uncountably many feasible solutions even in the simplest cases. For the case in w…
We consider the problem of estimating the distribution function, the density and the hazard rate of the (unobservable) event time in the current status model. A well studied and natural nonparametric estimator for the distribution function in this model is the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). We study two alternative methods for the estimation of the distribution function, assuming some smoothness of the event time distribution. The first estimator is based on a maximum smoothed likelihood approach. The second method is based on smoothing the (discrete) MLE of the distribution…
This paper considers the asymptotic properties of the recursive maximum likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models. The paper is focused on the asymptotic behavior of the log-likelihood function and on the point-convergence and convergence rate of the recursive maximum likelihood estimator. Using the principle of analytical continuation, the analyticity of the asymptotic log-likelihood function is shown for analytically parameterized hidden Markov models. Relying on this fact and some results from differential geometry (Lojasiewicz inequality), the almost sure point-convergence of the recur…
We consider maximum likelihood estimation with data from a bivariate Gaussian process with a separable exponential covariance model under fixed domain asymptotic. We first characterize the equivalence of Gaussian measures under this model. Then consistency and asymptotic distribution for the microergodic parameters are established. A simulation study is presented in order to compare the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator with the given asymptotic distribution.
We extend the constrained maximum likelihood estimation theory for parameters of a completely identified model, proposed by Aitchison and Silvey (1958), to parameters arising from a partially identified model. With a partially identified model, some parameters of the model may only be identified through constraints imposed by additional assumptions. We show that, under certain conditions, the constrained maximum likelihood estimator exists and locally maximize the likelihood function subject to constraints. We then study the asymptotic distribution of the estimator and propose a numerical algo…
Spatial-temporal linear model and the corresponding likelihood-based statistical inference are important tools for the analysis of spatial-temporal lattice data. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimates under a general asymptotic framework for spatial-temporal linear models. We propose mild regularity conditions on the spatial-temporal weight matrices and derive the asymptotic properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) of maximum likelihood estimates. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihoo…
This paper proposes a local representation for Empirical Likelihood (EL). EL admits the classical local linear quadratic representation by its likelihood ratio property. A local estimator is derived by using the new representation. Consistency, local asymptotic normality, and asymptotic optimality results hold for the new estimator. In particular, when the regularity conditions do not include any differentiability assumption, these asymptotic results are still valid for the local estimator. Simulations illustrate that the local method improves the inference accuracy of EL.
The problem of estimation of the distribution parameters on the sample when the part of these parameters are discrete (e.g. integer) is considered. We prove that the rate of convergence of MLE estimates under the natural conditions on the distribution density is exponentially fast.
There is a difficulty in finding an estimate of variance of the profile likelihood estimator in the joint model of longitudinal and survival data. We solve the difficulty by introducing the ``statistical generalized derivative''. The derivative is used to show the asymptotic normality of the estimator without assuming the second derivative of the density function in the model exists.
The asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimate is proved to decrease when the maximization is restricted to a subspace that contains the true parameter value. Maximum likelihood estimation allows a systematic fitting of covariance models to the sample, which is important in data assimilation. The hierarchical maximum likelihood approach is applied to the spectral diagonal covariance model with different parameterizations of eigenvalue decay, and to the sparse inverse covariance model with specified parameter values on different sets of nonzero entries. It is shown computationally t…
The maximum likelihood principle is widely used in statistics, and the associated estimators often display good properties. indeed maximum likelihood estimators are guaranteed to be asymptotically efficient under mild conditions. However in some settings, one has too few samples to get a good estimation. It then becomes desirable to take into account prior information about the distribution one wants to estimate. One possible approach is to extend the maximum likelihood principle in a bayesian context, which then becomes a maximum a posteriori estimate; however this requires a distribution mod…
We study maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models under conditional Poisson sampling schemes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters and investigate estimability of the natural and mean-value parameters under a nonexistent MLE. Our conditions focus on the role of sampling zeros in the observed table. We situate our results within the framework of extended exponential families, and we exploit the geometric properties of log-linear models. We propose algorithms for extended maximum likelihood estimat…
In this work we present a simple estimation procedure for a general frailty model for analysis of prospective correlated failure times. Earlier work showed this method to perform well in a simulation study. Here we provide rigorous large-sample theory for the proposed estimators of both the regression coefficient vector and the dependence parameter, including consistent variance estimators.
The stratified proportional intensity model generalizes Cox's proportional intensity model by allowing different groups of the population under study to have distinct baseline intensity functions. In this article, we consider the problem of estimation in this model when the variable indicating the stratum is unobserved for some individuals in the studied sample. In this setting, we construct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the stratified model and we establish their consistency and asymptotic normality. Consistent estimators for the limiting variances are also…
Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability matrices have full-rank and are ergodic, and if the state-dependent distributions are all distinct, but not necessarily linearly independent. Based on this identification result, we develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation theory. First, we show that the asymptotic contrast, the Kullback--Leibler divergence of the hidden Markov model, identifies the true…
For a multinomial distribution, suppose that we have prior knowledge of the sum of the probabilities of some categories. This allows us to construct a submodel in a full (i.e., no-restriction) model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) under this submodel is expected to have better estimation efficiency than MLE under the full model. This article presents the asymptotic expansion of the risk of MLE with respect to Kullback--Leibler divergence for both the full model and submodel. The results reveal that, using the submodel, the reduction of the risk is quite small in some cases. Furthermore, w…
This article provides an introduction to the asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered. The aim of this introduction is to be accessible to a wide audience and to present some existing results and proof techniques from the literature. The increasing-domain and fixed-domain asymptotic settings are considered. Under increasing-domain asymptotics, it is shown that in general all the components of the covariance parameter can be estimated consistently by maximum likelihood and that asymptotic normality holds. In contr…
We study parameter estimation in linear Gaussian covariance models, which are $p$-dimensional Gaussian models with linear constraints on the covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood estimation for this class of models leads to a non-convex optimization problem which typically has many local maxima. Using recent results on the asymptotic distribution of extreme eigenvalues of the Wishart distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for any hill-climbing method to converge to the global maximum. Although we are primarily interested in the case in which $n>\!\!>p$, the proofs of our results utiliz…
This paper deals with nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian locally stationary processes. Our nonparametric MLE is constructed by minimizing a frequency domain likelihood over a class of functions. The asymptotic behavior of the resulting estimator is studied. The results depend on the richness of the class of functions. Both sieve estimation and global estimation are considered. Our results apply, in particular, to estimation under shape constraints. As an example, autoregressive model fitting with a monotonic variance function is discussed in detail, including algorithmic …
We prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a general conditionally heteroscedastic model with $α$-stable innovations. Then, we relax the assumptions and only suppose that the innovation process converges in distribution toward a stable process. Using a pseudo maximum likelihood estimator with a stable density, we also obtain the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimator. This framework seems relevant for financial data exhibiting heavy tails. We apply this method to several financial index and com…
Here, in this paper it has been considered a sub family of exponential family. Maximum likelihood estimations (MLE) for the parameter of this family, probability density function, and cumulative density function based on a sample and based on lower record values have been obtained. It has been considered Mean Square Error (MSE) as a criterion for determining which is better in different situations. Additionally, it has been proved some theories about the relations between MLE based on lower record values and based on a random sample. Also, some interesting asymptotically properties for these e…
We consider the problem of efficient estimation of the drift parameter of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process driven by a Lévy process when high-frequency observations are given. The estimator is constructed from the time-continuous likelihood function that leads to an explicit maximum likelihood estimator and requires knowledge of the continuous martingale part. We use a thresholding technique to approximate the continuous part of the process. Under suitable conditions, we prove asymptotic normality and efficiency in the Hájek-Le Cam sense for the resulting drift estimator. Finally, we investi…
This paper establishes the almost sure convergence and asymptotic normality of levels and differenced quasi maximum-likelihood (QML) estimators of dynamic panel data models. The QML estimators are robust with respect to initial conditions, conditional and time-series heteroskedasticity, and misspecification of the log-likelihood. The paper also provides an ECME algorithm for calculating levels QML estimates. Finally, it uses Monte Carlo experiments to compare the finite sample performance of levels and differenced QML estimators, the differenced GMM estimator, and the system GMM estimator. In …
We investigate the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of the drift parameter for fractional vasicek model driven by a sub-fractional Brownian motion.
In this article, we investigate Maximum Likelihood Estimation with tools from Tropical Geometry and Bernstein--Sato theory. We investigate the critical points of very affine varieties and study their asymptotic behavior. We relate these asymptotics to particular rays in the tropical variety as well as to Bernstein--Sato ideals and give a connection to Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Statistics.
We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of parameters for models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion with random effects.
We establish connections between invariant theory and maximum likelihood estimation for discrete statistical models. We show that norm minimization over a torus orbit is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models. We use notions of stability under a torus action to characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate, and discuss connections to scaling algorithms.
Maximum likelihood estimation is a common method of estimating the parameters of the probability distribution from a given sample. This paper aims to introduce the maximum likelihood estimation in the framework of sublinear expectation. We find the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters of the maximal distribution via the solution of the associated minimax problem, which coincides with the optimal unbiased estimation given by Jin and Peng \cite{JP21}. A general estimation method for samples with dependent structure is also provided. This result provides a theoretical foundation for th…
We consider covariance parameter estimation for a Gaussian process under inequality constraints (boundedness, monotonicity or convexity) in fixed-domain asymptotics. We address the estimation of the variance parameter and the estimation of the microergodic parameter of the Matérn and Wendland covariance functions. First, we show that the (unconstrained) maximum likelihood estimator has the same asymptotic distribution, unconditionally and conditionally to the fact that the Gaussian process satisfies the inequality constraints. Then, we study the recently suggested constrained maximum likelihoo…
We consider the asymptotic consistency of maximum likelihood parameter estimation for dynamical systems observed with noise. Under suitable conditions on the dynamical systems and the observations, we show that maximum likelihood parameter estimation is consistent. Our proof involves ideas from both information theory and dynamical systems. Furthermore, we show how some well-studied properties of dynamical systems imply the general statistical properties related to maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, we exhibit classical families of dynamical systems for which maximum likelihood estimation…
Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is arguably the most important tool for statisticians, and many methods have been developed to find the MLE. We present a new inequality involving posterior distributions of a latent variable that holds under very general conditions. It is related to the EM algorithm and has a clear potential for being used in a similar fashion.
Empirical economic research frequently applies maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the likelihood function is analytically intractable. Most of the theoretical literature focuses on maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimators, while empirical and simulation analyzes often find that alternative approximation methods such as quasi-Monte Carlo simulation, Gaussian quadrature, and integration on sparse grids behave considerably better numerically. This paper generalizes the theoretical results widely known for MSL estimators to a general set of maximum approximated likelihood (MAL) esti…
In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of a univariate Hawkes process with self-excitation or inhibition. Our work generalizes techniques and results that were restricted to the self-exciting scenario. The proposed estimator is implemented for the classical exponential kernel and we show that, in the inhibition context, our procedure provides more accurate estimations than current alternative approaches.
We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove that the maximum likelihood and a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) are strongly consistent. The computation of the QMLE ignores the inhomogeneity, hence, is much simpler and robust. The theory is motivated by an example from biophysics and applied to a Poisson- and linear Gaussian model.
The MDL two-part coding $ \textit{index of resolvability} $ provides a finite-sample upper bound on the statistical risk of penalized likelihood estimators over countable models. However, the bound does not apply to unpenalized maximum likelihood estimation or procedures with exceedingly small penalties. In this paper, we point out a more general inequality that holds for arbitrary penalties. In addition, this approach makes it possible to derive exact risk bounds of order $1/n$ for iid parametric models, which improves on the order $(\log n)/n$ resolvability bounds. We conclude by discussing …
This expository note describes how to apply the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the ``$q$-exponential'' distributions introduced by Tsallis and collaborators. It also describes the relationship of these distributions to the classical Pareto distributions.
We study the problem of parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating parameters. Depending on how fast the intensity of the noise goes to zero relative to the homogenization parameter, we consider three different regimes. For each regime, we construct the maximum likelihood estimator and we study its consistency and asymptotic normality properties. A simulation study for the first order Langevin equation with a two scale potential is also provided.
We study the problem of maximum likelihood estimation for $3$-dimensional linear spaces of $3\times 3$ symmetric matrices from the point of view of algebraic statistics where we view these nets of conics as linear concentration or linear covariance models of Gaussian distributions on $\mathbb{R}^3$. In particular, we study the reciprocal surfaces of nets of conics which are rational surfaces in $\mathbb{P}^5$. We show that the reciprocal surfaces are projections from the Veronese surface and determine their intersection with the polar nets. This geometry explains the maximum likelihood degrees…
We uncover connections between maximum likelihood estimation in statistics and norm minimization over a group orbit in invariant theory. We focus on Gaussian transformation families, which include matrix normal models and Gaussian graphical models given by transitive directed acyclic graphs. We use stability under group actions to characterize boundedness of the likelihood, and existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimate. Our approach reveals promising consequences of the interplay between invariant theory and statistics. In particular, existing scaling algorithms from statisti…
This paper studies the asymptotic properties of and alternative inference methods for kernel density estimation (KDE) for dyadic data. We first establish uniform convergence rates for dyadic KDE. Secondly, we propose a modified jackknife empirical likelihood procedure for inference. The proposed test statistic is asymptotically pivotal regardless of presence of dyadic clustering. The results are further extended to cover the practically relevant case of incomplete dyadic data. Simulations show that this modified jackknife empirical likelihood-based inference procedure delivers precise coverage…
We consider the problem of selecting covariates in spatial linear models with Gaussian process errors. Penalized maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE) that enables simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation is developed and, for ease of computation, PMLE is approximated by one-step sparse estimation (OSE). To further improve computational efficiency, particularly with large sample sizes, we propose penalized maximum covariance-tapered likelihood estimation (PMLE$_{\mathrm{T}}$) and its one-step sparse estimation (OSE$_{\mathrm{T}}$). General forms of penalty functions with an emph…
In this paper, we study sample size thresholds for maximum likelihood estimation for tensor normal models. Given the model parameters and the number of samples, we determine whether, almost surely, (1) the likelihood function is bounded from above, (2) maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) exist, and (3) MLEs exist uniquely. We obtain a complete answer for both real and complex models. One consequence of our results is that almost sure boundedness of the log-likelihood function guarantees almost sure existence of an MLE. Our techniques are based on invariant theory and castling transforms.
Mixture models are regularly used in density estimation applications, but the problem of estimating the mixing distribution remains a challenge. Nonparametric maximum likelihood produce estimates of the mixing distribution that are discrete, and these may be hard to interpret when the true mixing distribution is believed to have a smooth density. In this paper, we investigate an algorithm that produces a sequence of smooth estimates that has been conjectured to converge to the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Here we give a rigorous proof of this conjecture, and propose a new data-d…
We study nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for two classes of multivariate distributions that imply strong forms of positive dependence; namely log-supermodular (MTP$_2$) distributions and log-$L^\#$-concave (LLC) distributions. In both cases we also assume log-concavity in order to ensure boundedness of the likelihood function. Given $n$ independent and identically distributed random vectors in $\mathbb R^d$ from one of our distributions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) exists a.s. and is unique a.e. with probability one when $n\geq 3$. This holds independently of the ambient…
Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised. We derive considerably weaker conditions that can be used in practice to ensure the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for a wide class of observation-driven time series models. Our consistency results hold for both correctly specified and misspecified models. The practical relevance of the theory is highlighted in a set of empirical examples. We…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow for autoregressive dynamics in the observable process, Markov regime sequences with covariate-dependent transition matrices, and possible model misspecification. A Monte Carlo study examines the finite-sample properties of the ML estimator in correctly specified and misspecified models. An empirical application is also discussed.
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is routinely used for the maximum likelihood estimation in the latent class analysis. However, the EM algorithm comes with no guarantees of reaching the global optimum. We study the geometry of the latent class model in order to understand the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator. In particular, we characterize the boundary stratification of the binary latent class model with a binary hidden variable. For small models, such as for three binary observed variables, we show that this stratification allows exact computation of the maximum likelih…
In this paper, we propose a maximum smoothed likelihood method to estimate the component density functions of mixture models, in which the mixing proportions are known and may differ among observations. The proposed estimates maximize a smoothed log likelihood function and inherit all the important properties of probability density functions. A majorization-minimization algorithm is suggested to compute the proposed estimates numerically. In theory, we show that starting from any initial value, this algorithm increases the smoothed likelihood function and further leads to estimates that maximi…
The controlled branching process is a generalization of the classical Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching process. It is a useful model for describing the evolution of populations in which the population size at each generation needs to be controlled. The maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of interest for this process is addressed under various sample schemes. Firstly, assuming that the entire family tree can be observed, the corresponding estimators are obtained and their asymptotic properties investigated. Secondly, since in practice it is not usual to observe such a sample, the ma…
We characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator for discrete exponential families. Our criterion is simple to apply as we show in various settings, most notably for exponential models of random graphs. As an application, we point out the size of independent identically distributed samples for which the maximum likelihood estimator exists with high probability.
