A moderate deviation principle for functionals, with at most quadratic growth, of moving average processes is established. The main assumptions on the moving average process are a Logarithmic Sobolev inequality for the driving random variables and the continuity, or weaker, of the spectral density of the moving average process. We also obtain the moderate deviations for the empirical spectral density, exhibiting an interesting new form of the rate function, i.e. with a correction term compared to the Gaussian rate functionnal.
We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Cesàro sense.
In this paper we derive the moderate deviation principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables under martingale-type conditions. Applications to functions of $ϕ$-mixing sequences, contracting Markov chains, expanding maps of the interval, and symmetric random walks on the circle are given.
Cramér type moderate deviation theorems quantify the accuracy of the relative error of the normal approximation and provide theoretical justifications for many commonly used methods in statistics. In this paper, we develop a new randomized concentration inequality and establish a Cramér type moderate deviation theorem for general self-normalized processes which include many well-known Studentized nonlinear statistics. In particular, a sharp moderate deviation theorem under optimal moment conditions is established for Studentized $U$-statistics.
We establish a moderate deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimator of the four parameters of a geometrically ergodic Heston process. We also obtain moderate deviations for the maximum likelihood estimator of the couple of dimensional and drift parameters of a generalized squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We restrict ourselves to the most tractable case where the dimensional parameter satisfies $a>2$ and the drift coefficient is such that $b<0$. In contrast to the previous literature, parameters are estimated simultaneously.
Let $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ be a supercritical Galton-Watson process. The Lotka-Nagaev estimator $Z_{n+1}/Z_n$ is a common estimator for the offspring mean.In this paper, we establish some Cramér moderate deviation results for the Lotka-Nagaev estimator via a martingale method. Applications to construction of confidence intervals are also given.
Bitseki and Delmas (2021) have studied recently the central limit theorem for kernel estimator of invariant density in bifurcating Markov chains models. We complete their work by proving a moderate deviation principle for this estimator. Unlike the work of Bitseki and Gorgui (2021), it is interesting to see that the distinction of the two regimes disappears and that we are able to get moderate deviation principle for large values of the ergodic rate. It is also interesting and surprising to see that for moderate deviation principle, the ergodic rate begins to have an impact on the choice of th…
We consider a stable but nearly unstable autoregressive process of any order. The bridge between stability and instability is expressed by a time-varying companion matrix $A_{n}$ with spectral radius $ρ(A_{n}) < 1$ satisfying $ρ(A_{n}) \rightarrow 1$. In that framework, we establish a moderate deviation principle for the empirical covariance only relying on the elements of $A_{n}$ through $1-ρ(A_{n})$ and, as a by-product, we establish a moderate deviation principle for the OLS estimator when $Γ$, the renormalized asymptotic variance of the process, is invertible. Finally, when $Γ$ is singular…
Our purpose is to prove central limit theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain under the condition of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain in Cesàro sense. Furthermore, we obtain a corresponding moderate deviation theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain by Gärtner-Ellis theorem and exponential equivalent method.
Let {(X_i,Y_i)}_{i=1}^n be a sequence of independent bivariate random vectors. In this paper, we establish a refined Cramér type moderate deviation theorem for the general self-normalized sum \sum_{i=1}^n X_i/(\sum_{i=1}^n Y_i^2)^{1/2}, which unifies and extends the classical Cramér (1938) theorem and the self-normalized Cramér type moderate deviation theorems by Jing, Shao and Wang (2003) as well as the further refined version by Wang (2011). The advantage of our result is evidenced through successful applications to weakly dependent random variables and self-normalized winsorized mean. Speci…
Ewens-Pitman model has been successfully applied to various fields including Bayesian statistics. There are four important estimators $K_{n},M_{l,n}$,$K_{m}^{(n)},M_{l,m}^{(n)}$. In particular, $M_{1,n}, M_{1,m}^{(n)}$ are related to discovery probability. Their asymptotic behavior, such as large deviation principle, has already been discussed in [4],[1] and [2]. Moderate deviation principle is also discussed in [3] with some speed restriction. In this article, we will apply complex asymptotic analysis to show that this speed restriction is unnecessary.
In this paper, Cramér type moderate deviations for the maximum of the periodogram and its studentized version are derived. The results are then applied to a simultaneous testing problem in gene expression time series. It is shown that the level of the simultaneous tests is accurate provided that the number of genes $G$ and the sample size $n$ satisfy $G=\exp(o(n^{1/3}))$.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the deviation inequalities and the moderate deviation principle of the least squares estimators of the unknown parameters of general $p$th-order bifurcating autoregressive processes, under suitable assumptions on the driven noise of the process. Our investigation relies on the moderate deviation principle for martingales.
We establish the moderate deviation principle for the solutions of a class of stochastic partial differential equations with non-Lipschitz continuous coefficients. As an application, we derive the moderate deviation principle for two important population models: super-Brownian motion and Fleming-Viot process.
In this paper, we prove a central limit theorem and establish a moderate deviation principle for the the two-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes equations with anisotropic viscosity. The proof for moderate deviation principle is based on the weak convergence approach.
The term "moderate deviations" is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fill the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and a weak convergence to a centered Normal distribution. We talk about "non-central moderate deviations" when the weak convergence is towards a non-Gaussian distribution. In this paper we study non-central moderate deviations for compound fractional Poisson processes with light-tailed jumps.
We apply Lindeberg's method, invented to prove a central limit theorem, to analyze the moderate deviations around such a central limit theorem. In particular, we will show moderate deviation principles for martingales as well as for random sums, in the latter situation both, in the case when the limit distribution is Gaussian or non-Gaussian. Moreover in the Gaussian case we show moderate deviations for random sums using bounds on cumulants, alternatively. Finally, we also prove a large deviation principle for certain random sums.
In this paper, we establish a moderate deviations principle for the Langevin dynamics with strong damping. The weak convergence approach plays an important role in the proof.
In this paper, we establish a central limit theorem and a moderate deviations for 2D stochastic primitive equations with multiplicative noise. The proof is mainly based on the weak convergence approach.
An example of a discrete-time stationary random process whose sums follow the normal approximation within a given part of the region of moderate deviations, but violate it outside this part.
In this paper, we present sufficient conditions and criteria to establish the large and moderate deviation principle of multivalued McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation by means of the weak convergence method.
In this paper we are concerned with hitting times of a family of density-dependent Markov chains. A moderate deviation principle of the hitting time is given. The proof of the main theorem relies heavily on moderate deviations of density-dependent Markov chains given in \cite{Xue2021} and upper bounds of large deviations of Markov processes given in \cite{Dupuis1991}. An analogue moderate deviation of the hitting time of the diffusion approximation of the density-dependent Markov chain introduced in \cite{Ethier1986} is also given.
In Stein's method, the exchangeable pair approach is commonly used to estimate the approximation errors in normal approximation. In this paper, we establish a Cramér-type moderate deviation theorem of normal approximation for unbounded exchangeable pairs. As applications, Cramér-type moderate deviation theorems for the sums of local statistics and general Curie--Weiss model are obtained.
A uniform key renewal theorem is deduced from the uniform Blackwell's renewal theorem. A uniform LDP (large deviations principle) for renewal-reward processes is obtained, and MDP (moderate deviations principle) is deduced under conditions much weaker than existence of exponential moments.
We consider the one dimensional symmetric simple exclusion process with a slow bond. In this model, particles cross each bond at rate $N^2$, except one particular bond, the slow bond, where the rate is $N$. Above, $N$ is the scaling parameter. This model has been considered in the context of hydrodynamic limits, fluctuations and large deviations. We investigate moderate deviations from hydrodynamics and obtain a moderate deviation principle.
We prove a moderate deviation principle for the continuous time interpolation of discrete time recursive stochastic processes. The methods of proof are somewhat different from the corresponding large deviation result, and in particular the proof of the upper bound is more complicated. The results can be applied to the design of accelerated Monte Carlo algorithms for certain problems, where schemes based on moderate deviations are easier to construct and in certain situations provide performance comparable to those based on large deviations.
By comparing the original equations with the corresponding stationary ones, the moderate deviation principle (MDP) is established for unbounded additive functionals of several different models of distribution dependent SDEs, with non-degenerate and degenerate noises.
In this paper, we obtain a large and moderate deviation principle for the law of the maximum of a random Dyck path. Our result extend the results of Chung, Kennedy, Kaigh and Khorunzhiy and Marckert.
We establish a moderate deviation principle for processes with independent increments under certain growth conditions for the characteristics of the process. Using this moderate deviation principle, we give a new proof for Strassen's functional law of the iterated logarithm. In particular, we show that any square-integrable Lévy process satisfies Strassen's law.
We prove a moderate deviations principles for the size of the largest connected component in a random $d$-uniform hypergraph. The key tool is a version of the exploration process, that is also used to investigate the giant component of an Erdös-Rényi graph, a moderate deviations principle for the martingale associated with this exploration process, and exponential estimates.
A moderate deviation principle for nonlinear functions of Gaussian processes is established. The nonlinear functions need not be locally bounded. Especially, the logarithm is allowed. (Thus, small deviations of the process are relevant.) Both discrete and continuous time is treated. An integrable power-like decay of the correlation function is assumed.
We prove large and moderate deviation principles for the distribution of an empirical mean conditioned by the value of the sum of discrete i.i.d. random variables. Some applications for combinatoric problems are discussed.
Large and moderate deviation principles are proved for Engel continued fractions, a new type of continued fraction expansion with non-decreasing partial quotients in number theory.
We derive Cramér type moderate deviations for stationary sequences of bounded random variables. Our results imply the moderate deviation principles and a Berry-Esseen bound. Applications to quantile coupling inequalities, functions of $ϕ$-mixing sequences, and contracting Markov chains are discussed.
This article is concerned with moderate deviation principles of a general class of mean eld type interacting particle models. We discuss functional moderate deviations of the occupation measures for both the strong -topology on the space of fi nite and bounded measures as well as for the corresponding stochastic processes on some class of functions equipped with the uniform topology. Our approach is based on an original semigroup analysis combined with stochastic perturbation techniques and projective limit large deviation methods.
We derive moderate deviation principles for the trajectory of the empirical magnetization of the standard Curie-Weiss model via a general analytic approach based on convergence of generators and uniqueness of viscosity solutions for associated Hamilton-Jacobi equations. The moderate asymptotics depend crucially on the phase under consideration.
Using martingale methods, we obtain some upper bounds for large and moderate deviations of products of independent and identically distributed elements of GL d (R). We investigate all the possible moment conditions, from super-exponential moments to weak moments of order p \textgreater{} 1, to get a complete picture of the situation. We also prove a moderate deviation principle under an appropriate tail condition.
In this paper, we are concerned with SIR epidemics in a random environment on complete graphs, where every edges are assigned with i.i.d. weights. Our main results give large and moderate deviation principles of sample paths of this model.
We prove moderate deviation principles for the tagged particle position and current in one-dimensional symmetric simple exclusion processes. There is at most one particle per site. A particle jumps to one of its two neighbors at rate $1/2$, and the jump is suppressed if there is already one at the target site. We distinguish one particular particle which is called the tagged particle. We first establish a variational formula for the moderate deviation rate functions of the tagged particle positions based on moderate deviation principles from hydrodynamic limit proved by Gao and Quastel \cite{g…
In this paper we prove a central limit theorem and a moderate deviation principle for a class of semilinear stochastic partial differential equations, which contain Burgers' equation and the stochastic reaction-diffusion equation. The weak convergence method plays an important role.
In this paper, we prove a central limit theorem and estabilish a moderate deviation principle for stochastic models of incompressible second fluids. The weak convergence method inreoduced by [4] plays an important role.
Record numbers are basic statistics in random walks, whose deviation principles are not very clear so far. In this paper, the asymptotic probabilities of large and moderate deviations for numbers of weak records in right continuous or left continuous random walks are proved.
By extending the methods in Peligrad et al. (2014a, b), we establish exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics for linear random fields with independent innovations. These results are useful for studying nonparametric regression with random field errors and strong limit theorems.
Motivated by the study of dependent random variables by coupling with independent blocks of variables, we obtain first sufficient conditions for the moderate deviation principle in its functional form for triangular arrays of independent random variables. Under some regularity assumptions our conditions are also necessary in the stationary case. The results are then applied to derive moderate deviation principles for linear processes, kernel estimators of a density and some classes of dependent random variables.
Moderate deviation principles for stochastic differential equations driven by a Poisson random measure (PRM) in finite and infinite dimensions are obtained. Proofs are based on a variational representation for expected values of positive functionals of a PRM.
The term \emph{moderate deviations} is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fill the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and a weak convergence to a centered Normal distribution. In this paper we present some examples of classes of large deviation principles of this kind, but the involved random variables converge weakly to Gumbel, exponential and Laplace distributions.
Given a symmetric random walk in $Z^2$ with finite second moments, let $R_n$ be the range of the random walk up to time $n$. We study moderate deviations for $R_n -E R_n$ and $E R_n -R_n$. We also derive the corresponding laws of the iterated logarithm.
We prove a moderate deviation principle for subgraph count statistics of Erdos-Renyi random graphs. This is equivalent in showing a moderate deviation principle for the trace of a power of a Bernoulli random matrix. It is done via an estimation of the log-Laplace transform and the Gaertner-Ellis theorem. We obtain upper bounds on the upper tail probabilities of the number of occurrences of small subgraphs. The method of proof is used to show supplemental moderate deviation principles for a class of symmetric statistics, including non-degenerate U-statistics with independent or Markovian entrie…
In this paper, we prove a central limit theorem and a moderate deviation principle for a perturbed stochastic Cahn-Hilliard equation defined on [0, T]x [0, π]^d, with d \in {1,2,3}. This equation is driven by a space-time white noise. The weak convergence approach plays an important role.
This paper is a further investigation of the generalized $N$-urn Ehrenfest model introduced in \cite{Xue2020}. A moderate deviation principle from the hydrodynamic limit of the model is derived. The proof of this main result follows a routine procedure introduced in \cite{Kipnis1989}, where a replacement lemma plays the key role. To prove the replacement lemma, the large deviation principle of the model given in \cite{Xue2020} is utilized.
