Standard chance-constrained spacecraft guidance typically relies on the assumption that uncertainties in vehicle states obey Gaussian statistics. In frontier applications such as the cislunar environment or deep space flybys, the dynamics can be particularly nonlinear, and time between measurements can be long, leading to the need to make decisions whose outcomes produce non-Gaussian distributions. This paper demonstrates a non-Gaussian confidence boundary technique for stochastic guidance in such applications. Our approach is to consider the true confidence contour as a perturbation of the one predicted from covariance, then to derive perturbed boundary geometry from computed higher-order statistical moments. Applying this technique to so-called "banana-shaped distributions", found in orbital mechanics problems, enables a simple parameterization of the confidence contour using the skew and kurtosis tensors. This parameterization is then applied to a stochastic and nonlinear impulsive spacecraft maneuver targeting problem, with special treatment of a relevant non-convex constraint.
To figure out the stability issues brought by renewable energy sources (RES) with non-Gaussian uncertainties in isolated microgrids, this paper proposes a chance constrained stability constrained optimal power flow (CC-SC-OPF) model. Firstly, we propose a bi-level optimization problem, of which the upper level aims to minimize the expected generation cost without violating the stability chance constraint; the lower level concerns about the stability index given by a semi-definite program (SDP). Secondly, we apply the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to handle the non-Gaussian RES uncertainties and…
Chance-constrained programming (CCP) is a promising approach to handle uncertainties in optimal power flow (OPF). However, conventional CCP usually assumes that uncertainties follow Gaussian distributions, which may not match reality. A few papers employed the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to extend CCP to cases with non-Gaussian uncertainties, but they are only appropriate for cases with uncertainties on the right-hand side but not applicable to DC OPF that containing left-hand side uncertainties. To address this, we develop a tractable GMM-based chance-constrained DC OPF model. In this model,…
The problem of optimizing affine feedback laws that explicitly steer the mean and covariance of an uncertain system state in the presence of a Gaussian random field is considered. Spatially-dependent disturbances are successively approximated with respect to a nominal trajectory by a sequence of jointly Gaussian random vectors. Sequential updates to the nominal control inputs are computed via convex optimization that includes the effect of affine state feedback, the perturbing effects of spatial disturbances, and chance constraints on the closed-loop state and control. The developed method is …
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Shanghai Qizhi Institute（上海期智研究院）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Tokyo（东京大学）
Motion planning under uncertainty is of significant importance for safety-critical systems such as autonomous vehicles. Such systems have to satisfy necessary constraints (e.g., collision avoidance) with potential uncertainties coming from either disturbed system dynamics or noisy sensor measurements. However, existing motion planning methods cannot efficiently find the robust optimal solutions under general nonlinear and non-convex settings. In this paper, we formulate such problem as chance-constrained Gaussian belief space planning and propose the constrained iterative Linear Quadratic Gaus…
Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are ideal demand-side flexible resources to provide regulation services. However, finding the best hourly regulation capacity offers for HVAC systems in a power market ahead of time is challenging because they are affected by non-Gaussian uncertainties from regulation signals. Moreover, since HVAC systems need to frequently regulate their power according to regulation signals, numerous thermodynamic constraints are introduced, leading to a huge computational burden. This paper proposes a tractable chance-constrained model to address the…
We propose an open loop methodology based on sample statistics to solve chance constrained stochastic optimal control problems with probabilistic safety guarantees for linear systems where the additive Gaussian noise has unknown mean and covariance. We consider a joint chance constraint for time-varying polytopic target sets under assumptions that the disturbance has been sufficiently sampled. We derive two theorems that allow us to bound the probability of the state being more than some number of sample standard deviations away from the sample mean. We use these theorems to reformulate the ch…
In this paper, we address the problem of sampling-based motion planning under motion and measurement uncertainty with probabilistic guarantees. We generalize traditional sampling-based tree-based motion planning algorithms for deterministic systems and propose belief-$\mathcal{A}$, a framework that extends any kinodynamical tree-based planner to the belief space for linear (or linearizable) systems. We introduce appropriate sampling techniques and distance metrics for the belief space that preserve the probabilistic completeness and asymptotic optimality properties of the underlying planner. W…
Agent behavior is arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. This problem has motivated significant amounts of work in the behavior prediction community on learning rich distributions of the future states and actions of agents. However, most current works on chance-constrained trajectory planning under agent or obstacle uncertainty either assume Gaussian uncertainty or linear constraints, which is limiting, or requires sampling, which can be computationally intractable to encode in an optimization problem. In this paper, we extend the state-of-t…
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究院）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）
The alternating current (AC) chance-constrained optimal power flow (CC-OPF) problem addresses the economic efficiency of electricity generation and delivery under generation uncertainty. The latter is intrinsic to modern power grids because of the high amount of renewables. Despite its academic success, the AC CC-OPF problem is highly nonlinear and computationally demanding, which limits its practical impact. For improving the AC-OPF problem complexity/accuracy trade-off, the paper proposes a fast data-driven setup that uses the sparse and hybrid Gaussian processes (GP) framework to model the …
While many techniques have been developed for chance constrained stochastic optimal control with Gaussian disturbance processes, far less is known about computationally efficient methods to handle non-Gaussian processes. In this paper, we develop a method for solving chance constrained stochastic optimal control problems for linear time-invariant systems with general additive disturbances with finite moments and unimodal chance constraints. We propose an open-loop control scheme for multi-vehicle planning, with both target sets and collision avoidance constraints. Our method relies on the one-…
Many systems such as autonomous vehicles and quadrotors are subject to parametric uncertainties and external disturbances. These uncertainties can lead to undesired performance degradation and safety issues. Therefore, it is important to design robust control strategies to safely regulate the dynamics of a system. This paper presents a novel framework for chance-constrained stochastic model predictive control of dynamic systems with non-Gaussian correlated probabilistic uncertainties. We develop a new stochastic Galerkin method to propagate the uncertainties using a new type of basis functions…
Chance-constrained motion planning requires uncertainty in dynamics to be propagated into uncertainty in state. When nonlinear models are used, Gaussian assumptions on the state distribution do not necessarily apply since almost all random variables propagated through nonlinear dynamics results in non-Gaussian state distributions. To address this, recent works have developed moment-based approaches for enforcing chance-constraints on non-Gaussian state distributions. However, there still lacks fast and accurate moment propagation methods to determine the necessary statistical moments of these …
We propose a method for learning constraints represented as Gaussian processes (GPs) from locally-optimal demonstrations. Our approach uses the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions to determine where on the demonstrations the constraint is tight, and a scaling of the constraint gradient at those states. We then train a GP representation of the constraint which is consistent with and which generalizes this information. We further show that the GP uncertainty can be used within a kinodynamic RRT to plan probabilistically-safe trajectories, and that we can exploit the GP structure withi…
University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；San Diego State University（圣地亚哥州立大学）；University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校）
Safety is a critical concern for the success of urban air mobility, especially in dynamic and uncertain environments. This paper proposes a path planning algorithm based on RRT in conjunction with chance constraints in the presence of uncertain obstacles. The chance-constrained formulation for Gaussian distributed obstacles is developed by converting the probabilistic constraints to deterministic constraints in terms of distribution parameters. The probabilistic feasible region at every time step can be established through the simulation of the system state and the evaluation of convex constra…
The University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国理工学院）
Reinforcement Learning (RL) controllers have generated excitement within the control community. The primary advantage of RL controllers relative to existing methods is their ability to optimize uncertain systems independently of explicit assumption of process uncertainty. Recent focus on engineering applications has been directed towards the development of safe RL controllers. Previous works have proposed approaches to account for constraint satisfaction through constraint tightening from the domain of stochastic model predictive control. Here, we extend these approaches to account for plant-m…
As a natural approach to modeling system safety conditions, chance constraint (CC) seeks to satisfy a set of uncertain inequalities individually or jointly with high probability. Although a joint CC offers stronger reliability certificate, it is oftentimes much more challenging to compute than individual CCs. Motivated by the application of optimal power flow, we study a special joint CC, named two-sided CC. We model the uncertain parameters through a Wasserstein ball centered at a Gaussian distribution and derive a hierarchy of conservative approximations based on second-order conic constrain…
This paper proposes a tractable distributionally robust chance-constrained conservation voltage reduction (DRCC-CVR) method with enriched data-based ambiguity set in unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. The increasing penetration of distributed renewable energy not only brings clean power but also challenges the voltage regulation and energy-saving performance of CVR by introducing high uncertainties to distribution systems. In most cases, the conventional robust optimization methods for CVR only provide conservative solutions. To better consider the impacts of load and PV generation u…
This paper considers the problem of supply-demand imbalances in Mobility-on-Demand (MoD) services, such as Uber or DiDi Rider. Such imbalances are due to uneven stochastic travel demand and can be prevented by proactively rebalance empty vehicles. To this end we propose a method that include estimated stochastic travel demand patterns into stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) for rebalancing of empty vehicles MoD ride-hailing service. More precisely, we first estimate passenger travel demand using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), which provides demand uncertainty bounds for time patter…
We tackle the problem of trajectory planning in an environment comprised of a set of obstacles with uncertain time-varying locations. The uncertainties are modeled using widely accepted Gaussian distributions, resulting in a chance-constrained program. Contrary to previous approaches however, we do not assume perfect knowledge of the moments of the distribution, and instead estimate them through finite samples available from either sensors or past data. We derive tight concentration bounds on the error of these estimates to sufficiently tighten the chance-constraint program. As such, we provid…
For market-based procurement of low voltage (LV) flexibility, DSOs identify the amount of flexibility needed for resolving probable distribution network (DN) voltage and thermal congestion. A framework is required to avoid over or under procurement of flexibility in the presence of uncertainty. To this end, we propose a scenario-based robust chance-constrained (CC) day-ahead flexibility needs assessment (FNA) framework. The CC level is analogous to the risk DSO is willing to take in flexibility planning. Multi-period optimal power flow is performed to calculate the amount of flexibility needed…
Continued great efforts have been dedicated towards high-quality trajectory generation based on optimization methods, however, most of them do not suitably and effectively consider the situation with moving obstacles; and more particularly, the future position of these moving obstacles in the presence of uncertainty within some possible prescribed prediction horizon. To cater to this rather major shortcoming, this work shows how a variational Bayesian Gaussian mixture model (vBGMM) framework can be employed to predict the future trajectory of moving obstacles; and then with this methodology, a…
In reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, exploratory control inputs are used during learning to acquire knowledge for decision making and control, while the true dynamics of a controlled object is unknown. However, this exploring property sometimes causes undesired situations by violating constraints regarding the state of the controlled object. In this paper, we propose an automatic exploration process adjustment method for safe RL in continuous state and action spaces utilizing a linear nominal model of the controlled object. Specifically, our proposed method automatically selects whether …
We propose a method for open-loop stochastic optimal control of LTI systems based on Taylor approximations of quantile functions. This approach enables efficient computation of quantile functions that arise in chance constrained reformulations. We are motivated by multi-vehicle planning problems for LTI systems with norm-based collision avoidance constraints, and polytopic feasibility constraints. Respectively, these constraints can be posed as reverse-convex and convex chance constraints that are affine in the control and disturbance. We show for constraints of this form, piecewise affine app…
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术学院）；AIRI（人工智能研究所）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）
In recent years, electricity generation has been responsible for more than a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Integrating a significant amount of renewables into a power grid is probably the most accessible way to reduce carbon emissions from power grids and slow down climate change. Unfortunately, the most accessible renewable power sources, such as wind and solar, are highly fluctuating and thus bring a lot of uncertainty to power grid operations and challenge existing optimization and control policies. The chance-constrained alternating current (AC) optimal power flow (OPF…
Conformal Prediction-Based MPC for Stochastic Linear Systems
Institute for Dynamic Systems and Control, ETH Zürich（动态系统与控制研究所，苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Division of Computer Engineering and Computer Science, University West（计算机工程与科学系，西海岸大学）；Division of Decision and Control Systems, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology（决策与控制系统系，电气工程与计算机科学学院，皇家理工学院）
Norwegian University of Science and Technology（挪威科技大学）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is one of the few control methods that can handle multivariable nonlinear controlsystems with constraints. Gaussian processes (GPs) present a powerful tool to identify the required plant model and quantifythe residual uncertainty of the plant-model mismatch. It is crucial to consider this uncertainty, since it may lead to worsecontrol performance and constraint violations. In this paper we propose a new method to design a GP-based NMPC algorithmfor finite horizon control problems. The method generates Monte Carlo samples of the GP offline for constrain…
This paper presents a method to design a min-norm Control Lyapunov Function (CLF)-based stabilizing controller for a control-affine system with uncertain dynamics using Gaussian Process (GP) regression. In order to estimate both state and input-dependent model uncertainty, we propose a novel compound kernel that captures the control-affine nature of the problem. Furthermore, by the use of GP Upper Confidence Bound analysis, we provide probabilistic bounds of the regression error, leading to the formulation of a CLF-based stability chance constraint which can be incorporated in a min-norm optim…
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Ford AV LLC（福特自动驾驶有限责任公司）；Ford Research and Advanced Engineering（福特研究与高级工程部）
We propose a Stochastic MPC (SMPC) formulation for autonomous driving at traffic intersections which incorporates multi-modal predictions of surrounding vehicles for collision avoidance constraints. The multi-modal predictions are obtained with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) and constraints are formulated as chance-constraints. Our main theoretical contribution is a SMPC formulation that optimizes over a novel feedback policy class designed to exploit additional structure in the GMM predictions, and that is amenable to convex programming. The use of feedback policies for prediction is motivated…
