Chance-constrained motion planning requires uncertainty in dynamics to be propagated into uncertainty in state. When nonlinear models are used, Gaussian assumptions on the state distribution do not necessarily apply since almost all random variables propagated through nonlinear dynamics results in non-Gaussian state distributions. To address this, recent works have developed moment-based approaches for enforcing chance-constraints on non-Gaussian state distributions. However, there still lacks fast and accurate moment propagation methods to determine the necessary statistical moments of these state distributions. To address this gap, we present a framework that, given a stochastic dynamical system, can algorithmically search for a new dynamical system in terms of moment state that can be used to propagate moments of disturbance random variables into moments of the state distribution. The key algorithm, TreeRing, can be applied to a large class of nonlinear systems which we refer to as trigonometric polynomial systems. As an example application, we present a distributionally robust RRT (DR-RRT) algorithm that propagates uncertainty through the nonlinear Dubin's car model without linearization.
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Shanghai Qizhi Institute（上海期智研究院）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Tokyo（东京大学）
Motion planning under uncertainty is of significant importance for safety-critical systems such as autonomous vehicles. Such systems have to satisfy necessary constraints (e.g., collision avoidance) with potential uncertainties coming from either disturbed system dynamics or noisy sensor measurements. However, existing motion planning methods cannot efficiently find the robust optimal solutions under general nonlinear and non-convex settings. In this paper, we formulate such problem as chance-constrained Gaussian belief space planning and propose the constrained iterative Linear Quadratic Gaus…
University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；San Diego State University（圣地亚哥州立大学）；University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校）
Safety is a critical concern for the success of urban air mobility, especially in dynamic and uncertain environments. This paper proposes a path planning algorithm based on RRT in conjunction with chance constraints in the presence of uncertain obstacles. The chance-constrained formulation for Gaussian distributed obstacles is developed by converting the probabilistic constraints to deterministic constraints in terms of distribution parameters. The probabilistic feasible region at every time step can be established through the simulation of the system state and the evaluation of convex constra…
In this paper, we address the problem of sampling-based motion planning under motion and measurement uncertainty with probabilistic guarantees. We generalize traditional sampling-based tree-based motion planning algorithms for deterministic systems and propose belief-$\mathcal{A}$, a framework that extends any kinodynamical tree-based planner to the belief space for linear (or linearizable) systems. We introduce appropriate sampling techniques and distance metrics for the belief space that preserve the probabilistic completeness and asymptotic optimality properties of the underlying planner. W…
This comment presents the results of using chance-constrained model predictive control (MPC) to solve a one-horizon benchmark collision avoidance problem.
Agent behavior is arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. This problem has motivated significant amounts of work in the behavior prediction community on learning rich distributions of the future states and actions of agents. However, most current works on chance-constrained trajectory planning under agent or obstacle uncertainty either assume Gaussian uncertainty or linear constraints, which is limiting, or requires sampling, which can be computationally intractable to encode in an optimization problem. In this paper, we extend the state-of-t…
This paper introduces Chance Constrained Gaussian Process-Motion Planning (CCGP-MP), a motion planning algorithm for robotic systems under motion and state estimate uncertainties. The paper's key idea is to capture the variations in the distance-to-collision measurements caused by the uncertainty in state estimation techniques using a Gaussian Process (GP) model. We formulate the planning problem as a chance constraint problem and propose a deterministic constraint that uses the modeled distance function to verify the chance-constraints. We apply Simplicial Homology Global Optimization (SHGO) …
This paper addresses a continuous-time continuous-space chance-constrained stochastic optimal control (SOC) problem via a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation (PDE). Through Lagrangian relaxation, we convert the chance-constrained (risk-constrained) SOC problem to a risk-minimizing SOC problem, the cost function of which possesses the time-additive Bellman structure. We show that the risk-minimizing control synthesis is equivalent to solving an HJB PDE whose boundary condition can be tuned appropriately to achieve a desired level of safety. Furthermore, it is shown that …
California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory（喷气推进实验室）
We present gPC-SCP: Generalized Polynomial Chaos-based Sequential Convex Programming to compute a sub-optimal solution for a continuous-time chance-constrained stochastic nonlinear optimal control (SNOC) problem. The approach enables motion planning for robotic systems under uncertainty. The gPC-SCP method involves two steps. The first step is to derive a surrogate problem of \emph{deterministic} nonlinear optimal control (DNOC) with convex constraints by using gPC expansion and the distributionally-robust convex subset of the chance constraints. The second step is to solve the DNOC problem us…
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories（三菱电机研究实验室）
This paper presents a chance-constrained formulation for robust trajectory optimization during manipulation. In particular, we present a chance-constrained optimization for Stochastic Discrete-time Linear Complementarity Systems (SDLCS). To solve the optimization problem, we formulate Mixed-Integer Quadratic Programming with Chance Constraints (MIQPCC). In our formulation, we explicitly consider joint chance constraints for complementarity as well as states to capture the stochastic evolution of dynamics. We evaluate robustness of our optimized trajectories in simulation on several systems. Th…
We propose a method for learning constraints represented as Gaussian processes (GPs) from locally-optimal demonstrations. Our approach uses the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions to determine where on the demonstrations the constraint is tight, and a scaling of the constraint gradient at those states. We then train a GP representation of the constraint which is consistent with and which generalizes this information. We further show that the GP uncertainty can be used within a kinodynamic RRT to plan probabilistically-safe trajectories, and that we can exploit the GP structure withi…
We consider the problem of autonomous navigation using limited information from a remote sensor network. Because the remote sensors are power and bandwidth limited, we use event-triggered (ET) estimation to manage communication costs. We introduce a fast and efficient sampling-based planner which computes motion plans coupled with ET communication strategies that minimize communication costs, while satisfying constraints on the probability of reaching the goal region and the point-wise probability of collision. We derive a novel method for offline propagation of the expected state distribution…
University of New Mexico（新墨西哥大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We present a data-driven algorithm for efficiently computing stochastic control policies for general joint chance constrained optimal control problems. Our approach leverages the theory of kernel distribution embeddings, which allows representing expectation operators as inner products in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This framework enables approximately reformulating the original problem using a dataset of observed trajectories from the system without imposing prior assumptions on the parameterization of the system dynamics or the structure of the uncertainty. By optimizing over a finit…
Many practical applications of robotics require systems that can operate safely despite uncertainty. In the context of motion planning, two types of uncertainty are particularly important when planning safe robot trajectories. The first is environmental uncertainty -- uncertainty in the locations of nearby obstacles, stemming from sensor noise or (in the case of obstacles' future locations) prediction error. The second class of uncertainty is uncertainty in the robots own state, typically caused by tracking or estimation error. To achieve high levels of safety, it is necessary for robots to co…
IIIT Hyderabad（印度海得拉巴国际信息技术学院）；University of Tartu（塔尔图大学）
We present CCO-VOXEL: the very first chance-constrained optimization (CCO) algorithm that can compute trajectory plans with probabilistic safety guarantees in real-time directly on the voxel-grid representation of the world. CCO-VOXEL maps the distribution over the distance to the closest obstacle to a distribution over collision-constraint violation and computes an optimal trajectory that minimizes the violation probability. Importantly, unlike existing works, we never assume the nature of the sensor uncertainty or the probability distribution of the resulting collision-constraint violations.…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；George W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering（乔治·W·伍德拉夫机械工程学院）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering（电气与计算机工程系）
As robots move from the laboratory into the real world, motion planning will need to account for model uncertainty and risk. For robot motions involving intermittent contact, planning for uncertainty in contact is especially important, as failure to successfully make and maintain contact can be catastrophic. Here, we model uncertainty in terrain geometry and friction characteristics, and combine a risk-sensitive objective with chance constraints to provide a trade-off between robustness to uncertainty and constraint satisfaction with an arbitrarily high feasibility guarantee. We evaluate our a…
To figure out the stability issues brought by renewable energy sources (RES) with non-Gaussian uncertainties in isolated microgrids, this paper proposes a chance constrained stability constrained optimal power flow (CC-SC-OPF) model. Firstly, we propose a bi-level optimization problem, of which the upper level aims to minimize the expected generation cost without violating the stability chance constraint; the lower level concerns about the stability index given by a semi-definite program (SDP). Secondly, we apply the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to handle the non-Gaussian RES uncertainties and…
Recently, chance-constrained stochastic electricity market designs have been proposed to address the shortcomings of scenario-based stochastic market designs. In particular, the use of chance-constrained market-clearing avoids trading off in-expectation and per-scenario characteristics and yields unique energy and reserves prices. However, current formulations rely on symmetric control policies based on the aggregated system imbalance, which restricts balancing reserve providers in their energy and reserve commitments. This paper extends existing chance-constrained market-clearing formulations…
The key of the post-disaster humanitarian logistics (PD-HL) is to build a good facility location and capacity planning (FLCP) model for delivering relief supplies to affected areas in time. To fully exploit the historical PD data, this paper adopts the data-driven distributionally robust (DR) approach and proposes a novel multi-period FLCP model under the $\infty$-Wasserstein joint chance constraints (MFLCP-W). Specifically, we sequentially decide locations from a candidate set to build facilities with supply capacities, which are expanded if more economical, and use a finite number of histori…
We tackle the problem of trajectory planning in an environment comprised of a set of obstacles with uncertain time-varying locations. The uncertainties are modeled using widely accepted Gaussian distributions, resulting in a chance-constrained program. Contrary to previous approaches however, we do not assume perfect knowledge of the moments of the distribution, and instead estimate them through finite samples available from either sensors or past data. We derive tight concentration bounds on the error of these estimates to sufficiently tighten the chance-constraint program. As such, we provid…
The controller state and reference governor (CSRG) is an add-on scheme for nominal closed-loop systems with dynamic controllers which supervises the controller internal state and the reference input to the closed-loop system to enforce pointwise-in-time constraints. By admitting both controller state and reference modifications, the CSRG can achieve an enlarged constrained domain of attraction compared to conventional reference governor schemes where only reference modification is permitted. This paper studies the CSRG for systems subject to stochastic disturbances and chance constraints. We d…
While techniques have been developed for chance constrained stochastic optimal control using sample disturbance data that provide a probabilistic confidence bound for chance constraint satisfaction, far less is known about how to use sample data in a manner that can provide almost surely guarantees of chance constraint satisfaction. In this paper, we develop a method for solving chance constrained stochastic optimal control problems for linear time-invariant systems with unknown but sampled additive disturbances. We propose an open-loop control scheme for multi-vehicle planning, with both targ…
While many techniques have been developed for chance constrained stochastic optimal control with Gaussian disturbance processes, far less is known about computationally efficient methods to handle non-Gaussian processes. In this paper, we develop a method for solving chance constrained stochastic optimal control problems for linear time-invariant systems with general additive disturbances with finite moments and unimodal chance constraints. We propose an open-loop control scheme for multi-vehicle planning, with both target sets and collision avoidance constraints. Our method relies on the one-…
In this paper, a sample-based procedure for obtaining simple and computable approximations of chance-constrained sets is proposed. The procedure allows to control the complexity of the approximating set, by defining families of simple-approximating sets of given complexity. A probabilistic scaling procedure then allows to rescale these sets to obtain the desired probabilistic guarantees. The proposed approach is shown to be applicable in several problem in systems and control, such as the design of Stochastic Model Predictive Control schemes or the solution of probabilistic set membership esti…
Chance-constrained programming (CCP) is a promising approach to handle uncertainties in optimal power flow (OPF). However, conventional CCP usually assumes that uncertainties follow Gaussian distributions, which may not match reality. A few papers employed the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to extend CCP to cases with non-Gaussian uncertainties, but they are only appropriate for cases with uncertainties on the right-hand side but not applicable to DC OPF that containing left-hand side uncertainties. To address this, we develop a tractable GMM-based chance-constrained DC OPF model. In this model,…
In this work, we propose a distributionally robust stochastic model predictive control (DR-SMPC) algorithm to address the problem of two-sided chance constrained discrete-time linear system corrupted by additive noise. The prevalent mechanism to cope with two-sided chance constraints is the so-called risk allocation approach, which conservatively approximates the two-sided chance constraints with two single chance constraints by applying the Boole's inequality. In this proposed DR-SMPC framework, an exact tractable second-order cone (SOC) approach is adopted to abstract the two-sided chance co…
In urban drainage systems (UDS), a proven method for reducing the combined sewer overflow (CSO) pollution is real-time control (RTC) based on model predictive control (MPC). MPC methodologies for RTC of UDSs in the literature rely on the computation of the optimal control strategies based on deterministic rain forecast. However, in reality, uncertainties exist in rainfall forecasts which affect severely accuracy of computing the optimal control strategies. Under this context, this work aims to focus on the uncertainty associated with the rainfall forecasting and its effects. One option is to u…
The growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is leading to continually changing operating conditions, which need to be managed efficiently by distribution grid operators. The intermittent nature of DERs such as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems as well as load forecasting errors not only increase uncertainty in the grid, but also pose significant power quality challenges such as voltage unbalance and voltage magnitude violations. This paper leverages a chance-constrained optimization approach to reduce the impact of uncertainty on distribution grid operation. We first present t…
