Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is one of the few control methods that can handle multivariable nonlinear controlsystems with constraints. Gaussian processes (GPs) present a powerful tool to identify the required plant model and quantifythe residual uncertainty of the plant-model mismatch. It is crucial to consider this uncertainty, since it may lead to worsecontrol performance and constraint violations. In this paper we propose a new method to design a GP-based NMPC algorithmfor finite horizon control problems. The method generates Monte Carlo samples of the GP offline for constraint tighteningusing back-offs. The tightened constraints then guarantee the satisfaction of chance constraints online. Advantages of our proposed approach over existing methods include fast online evaluation, consideration of closed-loop behaviour, and thepossibility to alleviate conservativeness by considering both online learning and state dependency of the uncertainty. The algorithm is verified on a challenging semi-batch bioprocess case study.
Technical University of Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg（马格德堡奥托·冯·格里克大学）
We propose a model predictive control approach for autonomous vehicles that exploits learned Gaussian processes for predicting human driving behavior. The proposed approach employs the uncertainty about the GP's prediction to achieve safety. A multi-mode predictive control approach considers the possible intentions of the human drivers. While the intentions are represented by different Gaussian processes, their probabilities foreseen in the observed behaviors are determined by a suitable online classification. Intentions below a certain probability threshold are neglected to improve performanc…
Integrating measurements and historical data can enhance control systems through learning-based techniques, but ensuring performance and safety is challenging. Robust model predictive control strategies, like stochastic model predictive control, can address this by accounting for uncertainty. Gaussian processes are often used but have limitations with larger models and data sets. We explore Bayesian neural networks for stochastic learning-assisted control, comparing their performance to Gaussian processes on a wastewater treatment plant model. Results show Bayesian neural networks achieve simi…
Otto-von-Guericke-University（奥托·冯·格里克大学）；Universidad de Sevilla（塞维利亚大学）
Model predictive control allows to provide high performance and safety guarantees in the form of constraint satisfaction. These properties, however, can be satisfied only if the underlying model, used for prediction, of the controlled process is sufficiently accurate. One way to address this challenge is by data-driven and machine learning approaches, such as Gaussian processes, that allow to refine the model online during operation. We present a combination of an output feedback model predictive control scheme and a Gaussian process-based prediction model that is capable of efficient online l…
We present a straightforward and efficient way to control unstable robotic systems using an estimated dynamics model. Specifically, we show how to exploit the differentiability of Gaussian Processes to create a state-dependent linearized approximation of the true continuous dynamics that can be integrated with model predictive control. Our approach is compatible with most Gaussian process approaches for system identification, and can learn an accurate model using modest amounts of training data. We validate our approach by learning the dynamics of an unstable system such as a segway with a 7-D…
Wrocław University of Technology（弗罗茨瓦夫理工大学）；Opole University of Technology（奥波莱理工大学）
In this paper, we present the Gaussian process regression as the predictive model for Quality-of-Service (QoS) attributes in Web service systems. The goal is to predict performance of the execution system expressed as QoS attributes given existing execution system, service repository, and inputs, e.g., streams of requests. In order to evaluate the performance of Gaussian process regression the simulation environment was developed. Two quality indexes were used, namely, Mean Absolute Error and Mean Squared Error. The results obtained within the experiment show that the Gaussian process performe…
In this paper we consider the problem of Gaussian process classifier (GPC) model selection with different Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation (CV) based optimization criteria and provide a practical algorithm using LOO predictive distributions with such criteria to select hyperparameters. Apart from the standard average negative logarithm of predictive probability (NLP), we also consider smoothed versions of criteria such as F-measure and Weighted Error Rate (WER), which are useful for handling imbalanced data. Unlike the regression case, LOO predictive distributions for the classifier case a…
One of the most compelling features of Gaussian process (GP) regression is its ability to provide well-calibrated posterior distributions. Recent advances in inducing point methods have sped up GP marginal likelihood and posterior mean computations, leaving posterior covariance estimation and sampling as the remaining computational bottlenecks. In this paper we address these shortcomings by using the Lanczos algorithm to rapidly approximate the predictive covariance matrix. Our approach, which we refer to as LOVE (LanczOs Variance Estimates), substantially improves time and space complexity. I…
Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through An Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach
University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Swanson School of Engineering, University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学斯旺森工程学院）；Duquesne University（杜肯大学）
Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）；Hasso Plattner Institute（哈索·普拉特纳研究所）；University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）
Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable. Approximate inference techniques trade off the ability to closely resemble the posterior distribution against speed of convergence and computational efficiency. We propose a novel Gaussian variational family that allows for retaining covariances between latent processes while achieving fast convergence by marginalising out all global latent variables. After providi…
Multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a common approach to address the extensive computationally demanding algorithms such as optimization, calibration and uncertainty quantification. Adaptive sampling for multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a changing task due to the fact that not only we seek to estimate the next sampling location of the design variable, but also the level of the simulator fidelity. This issue is often addressed by including the cost of the simulator as an another factor in the searching criterion in conjunction with the uncertainty reduction metric. In this work, we extent the …
Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective function whose values we are trying to predict. Some of these assumptions may be smoothness or stationarity. Gaussian process (GPs) are probabilistic models that can be interpreted as flexible distributions over functions. They encode the assumptions through covariance functions, making hypotheses about new data through a predictive distribution by being fitted…
We introduce a simple and scalable method for training Gaussian process (GP) models that exploits cross-validation and nearest neighbor truncation. To accommodate binary and multi-class classification we leverage Pòlya-Gamma auxiliary variables and variational inference. In an extensive empirical comparison with a number of alternative methods for scalable GP regression and classification, we find that our method offers fast training and excellent predictive performance. We argue that the good predictive performance can be traced to the non-parametric nature of the resulting predictive distrib…
The Broad Institute（博德研究所）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）
The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially underestimated uncertainties. Notably, in the regression case the predictive variance is typically dominated by observation noise, yielding uncertainty estimates that make little use of the input-dependent function uncertainty that makes GP priors attractive. In this work we propose two simple methods for scalable GP regression that address this issue and thus …
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a Gaussian process model. We show surprising equivalences between different hierarchical Gaussian process models leading to Student-t processes, and derive a new sampling scheme for the inverse Wishart process, which helps elucidate these equivalences. Overall, we show that a Studen…
German Aerospace Center (DLR)（德国航空航天中心）；Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；Technical University of Munich (TUM)（慕尼黑工业大学）；ETH Zürich (ETHZ)（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
This paper presents a probabilistic framework to obtain both reliable and fast uncertainty estimates for predictions with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Our main contribution is a practical and principled combination of DNNs with sparse Gaussian Processes (GPs). We prove theoretically that DNNs can be seen as a special case of sparse GPs, namely mixtures of GP experts (MoE-GP), and we devise a learning algorithm that brings the derived theory into practice. In experiments from two different robotic tasks -- inverse dynamics of a manipulator and object detection on a micro-aerial vehicle (MAV) --…
This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control strategy for stochastic systems with general (state and input dependent) disturbances subject to chance constraints. Our approach uses an online computed stochastic tube to ensure stability, constraint satisfaction and recursive feasibility in the presence of stochastic uncertainties. The shape of the tube and the constraint backoff is based on an offline computed incremental Lyapunov function.
In this work, we consider the problem of steering the first two moments of the uncertain state of an unknown discrete-time stochastic nonlinear system to a given terminal distribution in finite time. Toward that goal, first, a non-parametric predictive model is learned from a set of available training data points using stochastic variational Gaussian process regression: a powerful and scalable machine learning tool for learning distributions over arbitrary nonlinear functions. Second, we formulate a tractable nonlinear covariance steering algorithm that utilizes the Gaussian process predictive…
In this paper, we propose a chance constrained stochastic model predictive control scheme for reference tracking of distributed linear time-invariant systems with additive stochastic uncertainty. The chance constraints are reformulated analytically based on mean-variance information, where we design suitable Probabilistic Reachable Sets for constraint tightening. Furthermore, the chance constraints are proven to be satisfied in closed-loop operation. The design of an invariant set for tracking complements the controller and ensures convergence to arbitrary admissible reference points, while a …
Otto-von-Guericke Univ. Magdeburg（马格德堡奥托·冯·格里克大学）；Fraunhofer-Institute for Factory Operation and Automation（弗劳恩霍夫工厂运营与自动化研究所）
One of the key benefits of model predictive control is the capability of controlling a system proactively in the sense of taking the future system evolution into account. However, often external disturbances or references are not a priori known, which renders the predictive controllers shortsighted or uninformed. Adaptive prediction models can be used to overcome this issue and provide predictions of these signals to the controller. In this work we propose to learn references via Gaussian processes for model predictive controllers. To illustrate the approach, we consider robot assisted surgery…
The paper investigates data-driven output-feedback predictive control of linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances. The scheme relies on the recursive solution of a suitable data-driven reformulation of a stochastic Optimal Control Problem (OCP), which allows for forward prediction and optimization of statistical distributions of inputs and outputs. Our approach avoids the use of parametric system models. Instead it is based on previously recorded data using a recently proposed stochastic variant of Willems' fundamental lemma. The stochastic variant of the lemma is applicable to a larg…
We propose a stochastic MPC scheme using an optimization over the initial state for the predicted trajectory. Considering linear discrete-time systems under unbounded additive stochastic disturbances subject to chance constraints, we use constraint tightening based on probabilistic reachable sets to design the MPC. The scheme avoids the infeasibility issues arising from unbounded disturbances by including the initial state as a decision variable. We show that the stabilizing control scheme can guarantee constraint satisfaction in closed loop, assuming unimodal disturbances. In addition to illu…
We present a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework for linear systems subject to possibly unbounded disturbances. State of the art SMPC approaches with closed-loop chance constraint satisfaction recursively initialize the nominal state based on the previously predicted nominal state or possibly the measured state under some case distinction. We improve these initialization strategies by allowing for a continuous optimization over the nominal initial state in an interpolation of these two extremes. The resulting SMPC scheme can be implemented as one standard quadratic program and…
This paper proposes a control strategy for a Reverse Fuel Cell used to manage a Renewable Energy Community. A two-stage scenario-based Model Predictive Control algorithm is designed to define the best economic strategy to be followed during operation. Renewable energy generation and users' demand are forecasted by a suitably defined Discrete Markov Chain based method. The control algorithm is able to take into account the uncertainties of forecasts and the nonlinear behaviour of the Reversible Fuel Cell. The performance of proposed approach is tested on a Renewable Energy Community composed by…
We present the observation that the process of stochastic model predictive control can be formulated in the framework of iterated function systems. The latter has a rich ergodic theory that can be applied to study the system's long-run behavior. We show how such a framework can be realized for specific problems and illustrate the required conditions for the application of relevant theoretical guarantees.
The stability of stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) subject to additive disturbances is often demonstrated in the literature by constructing Lyapunov-like inequalities that ensure closed-loop performance bounds and boundedness of the state, but tight ultimate bounds for the state and non-conservative performance bounds are typically not determined. In this work we use an input-to-state stability property to find conditions that imply convergence with probability 1 of a disturbed nonlinear system to a minimal robust positively invariant set. We discuss implications for the convergence of…
Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints
Ilmenau University of Technology（埃尔福特工业大学）；Institute for Automation and Systems Engineering, Ilmenau University of Technology（埃尔福特工业大学自动化与系统工程研究所）；Otto-von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg（奥托·冯·格里克马格德堡大学）；Institute for Automation Engineering, Otto-von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg（奥托·冯·格里克马格德堡大学自动化工程研究所）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校化学与生物分子工程系）
Data-driven predictive control (DDPC) has been recently proposed as an effective alternative to traditional model-predictive control (MPC) for its unique features of being time-efficient and unbiased with respect to the oracle solution. Nonetheless, it has also been observed that noise may strongly jeopardize the final closed-loop performance since it affects both the data-based system representation and the control update computed from the online measurements. Recent studies have shown that regularization is potentially a successful tool to counteract the effect of noise. At the same time, re…
Despite the proven advantages of scenario-based stochastic model predictive control for the operational control of water networks, its applicability is limited by its considerable computational footprint. In this paper we fully exploit the structure of these problems and solve them using a proximal gradient algorithm parallelizing the involved operations. The proposed methodology is applied and validated on a case study: the water network of the city of Barcelona.
We present a stochastic predictive controller for discrete time linear time invariant systems under incomplete state information. Our approach is based on a suitable choice of control policies, stability constraints, and employment of a Kalman filter to estimate the states of the system from incomplete and corrupt observations. We demonstrate that this approach yields a computationally tractable problem that should be solved online periodically, and that the resulting closed loop system is mean-square bounded for any positive bound on the control actions. Our results allow one to tackle the la…
We investigate constrained optimal control problems for linear stochastic dynamical systems evolving in discrete time. We consider minimization of an expected value cost over a finite horizon. Hard constraints are introduced first, and then reformulated in terms of probabilistic constraints. It is shown that, for a suitable parametrization of the control policy, a wide class of the resulting optimization problems are convex, or admit reasonable convex approximations.
Stochastic gradient methods are dominant in nonconvex optimization especially for deep models but have low asymptotical convergence due to the fixed smoothness. To address this problem, we propose a simple yet effective method for improving stochastic gradient methods named predictive local smoothness (PLS). First, we create a convergence condition to build a learning rate which varies adaptively with local smoothness. Second, the local smoothness can be predicted by the latest gradients. Third, we use the adaptive learning rate to update the stochastic gradients for exploring linear convergen…
The optimization of process economics within the model predictive control (MPC) formulation has given rise to a new control paradigm known as economic MPC (EMPC). Several authors have discussed the closed-loop properties of EMPC-controlled deterministic systems, however, little have uncertain systems been studied. In this paper we propose EMPC formulations for nonlinear Markovian switching systems which guarantee recursive feasibility, asymptotic performance bounds and constrained mean square (MS) stability.
We propose a formulation for approximate constrained nonlinear output-feedback stochastic model predictive control. Starting from the ideal but intractable stochastic optimal control problem (OCP), which involves the optimization over output-dependent policies, we use linearization with respect to the uncertainty to derive a tractable approximation which includes knowledge of the output model. This allows us to compute the expected value for the outer functions of the OCP exactly. Crucially, the dual control effect is preserved by this approximation. In consequence, the resulting controller is…
