We investigate constrained optimal control problems for linear stochastic dynamical systems evolving in discrete time. We consider minimization of an expected value cost over a finite horizon. Hard constraints are introduced first, and then reformulated in terms of probabilistic constraints. It is shown that, for a suitable parametrization of the control policy, a wide class of the resulting optimization problems are convex, or admit reasonable convex approximations.
Chance constraints are a valuable tool for the design of safe decisions in uncertain environments; they are used to model satisfaction of a constraint with a target probability. However, because of possible non-convexity and non-smoothness, optimizing over a chance constrained set is challenging. In this paper, we establish an exact reformulation of chance constrained problems as a bilevel problems with convex lower-levels. We then derive a tractable penalty approach, where the penalized objective is a difference-of-convex function that we minimize with a suitable bundle algorithm. We release …
We consider the Chance Constrained Model Predictive Control problem for polynomial systems subject to disturbances. In this problem, we aim at finding optimal control input for given disturbed dynamical system to minimize a given cost function subject to probabilistic constraints, over a finite horizon. The control laws provided have a predefined (low) risk of not reaching the desired target set. Building on the theory of measures and moments, a sequence of finite semidefinite programmings are provided, whose solution is shown to converge to the optimal solution of the original problem. Numeri…
We study the problem of finite-time constrained optimal control of unknown stochastic linear time-invariant systems, which is the key ingredient of a predictive control algorithm -- albeit typically having access to a model. We propose a novel distributionally robust data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm which uses noise-corrupted input/output data to predict future trajectories and compute optimal control inputs while satisfying output chance constraints. The algorithm is based on (i) a non-parametric representation of the subspace spanning the system behaviour, where past traject…
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to synthesize linear feedback controllers for navigating in polygonal environments using noisy measurements and a convex cell decomposition. Our method is based on formulating chance constraints for the convergence and collision avoidance condition. In particular, the stability and safety guarantees come from chance Control Barrier Function (CBF) constraints and chance Control Lyapunov Function (CLF) constraints, respectively. We use convex over-approximations to get upper bounds of the constraints, leading to a convex robust quadratic program for fin…
Recent studies of optimization methods and GNC of spacecraft near small bodies focusing on descent, landing, rendezvous, etc., with key safety constraints such as line-of-sight conic zones and soft landings have shown promising results; this paper considers descent missions to an asteroid surface with a constraint that consists of an onboard camera and asteroid surface markers while using a stochastic convex MPC law. An undermodeled asteroid gravity and spacecraft technology inspired measurement model is established to develop the constraint. Then a computationally light stochastic Linear Quad…
This paper studies distributionally robust chance constrained programs (DRCCPs), where the uncertain constraints must be satisfied with at least a probability of a prespecified threshold for all probability distributions from the Wasserstein ambiguity set. As DRCCPs are often nonconvex and challenging to solve optimally, researchers have been developing various convex inner approximations. Recently, ALSO-X has been proven to outperform the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) approximation of a regular chance constrained program when the deterministic set is convex. In this work, we relax this ass…
In this paper, we develop an exact reformulation and a deterministic approximation for distributionally robust joint chance-constrained programmings (DRCCPs) with a general class of convex uncertain constraints under data-driven Wasserstein ambiguity sets. It is known that robust chance constraints can be conservatively approximated by worst-case conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints. It is shown that the proposed worst-case CVaR approximation model can be reformulated as an optimization problem involving biconvex constraints for joint DRCCP. We then derive a convex relaxation of this a…
In a chance constrained program (CCP), the decision-makers aim to seek the best decision whose probability of violating the uncertainty constraints is within the prespecified risk level. As a CCP is often nonconvex and is difficult to solve to optimality, much effort has been devoted to developing convex inner approximations for a CCP, among which the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) has been known to be the best for more than a decade. This paper studies and generalizes the ALSO-X, originally proposed by Ahmed, Luedtke, SOng, and Xie (2017), for solving a CCP. We first show that the ALSO-X re…
In this paper we propose a data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control framework for constrained stochastic systems with unbounded additive disturbances. Recursive feasibility is ensured by optimizing over an linearly interpolated initial state constraint in combination with a simplified affine disturbance feedback policy. We consider a moment-based ambiguity set with data-driven radius for the second moment of the disturbance, where we derive a minimum number of samples in order to ensure user-given confidence bounds on the chance constraints and closed-loop performance. The …
Maintenance planning plays a key role in power system operations under uncertainty by helping system operators ensure a reliable and secure power grid. This paper studies a short-term condition-based integrated maintenance planning with operations scheduling problem while considering the unexpected failure possibilities of generators as well as transmission lines. We formulate this problem as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program with failure scenarios sampled from the sensor-driven remaining lifetime distributions of the individual system elements whereas a joint chance-constraint cons…
We examine the convexity and tractability of the two-sided linear chance constraint model under Gaussian uncertainty. We show that these constraints can be applied directly to model a larger class of nonlinear chance constraints as well as provide a reasonable approximation for a challenging class of quadratic chance constraints of direct interest for applications in power systems. With a view towards practical computations, we develop a second-order cone outer approximation of the two-sided chance constraint with provably small approximation error.
Chance-constrained programs (CCPs) constitute a difficult class of stochastic programs due to its possible nondifferentiability and nonconvexity even with simple linear random functionals. Existing approaches for solving the CCPs mainly deal with convex random functionals within the probability function. In the present paper, we consider two generalizations of the class of chance constraints commonly studied in the literature; one generalization involves probabilities of disjunctive nonconvex functional events and the other generalization involves mixed-signed affine combinations of the result…
We study quasi-convex optimization problems, where only a subset of the constraints can be sampled, and yet one would like a probabilistic guarantee on the obtained solution with respect to the initial (unknown) optimization problem. Even though our results are partly applicable to general quasi-convex problems, in this work we introduce and study a particular subclass, which we call "quasi-linear problems". We provide optimality conditions for these problems. Thriving on this, we extend the approach of chance-constrained convex optimization to quasi-linear optimization problems. Finally, we s…
This paper studies the problem of distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) using total variation distance ambiguity sets. For a discrete-time linear system with additive disturbances, we provide a conditional value-at-risk reformulation of the MPC optimization problem that is distributionally robust in the expected cost and chance constraints. The distributionally robust chance constraint is over-approximated as a simpler, tightened chance constraint that reduces the computational burden. Numerical experiments support our results on probabilistic guarantees and computational effi…
The uncertainty of multiple power loads and renewable energy generations (PLREG) in power systems increases the complexity of power flow analysis for decision-makers. The chance-constrained method can be applied to model the optimization problems of power flow under uncertainty. This paper develops a novel solution approach for chance-constrained AC optimal power flow (CCACOPF) problem based on the data-driven convexification of power flow and a fast algorithm for scenario technique (FAST). This method is computationally effective for mainly two reasons. First, the original nonconvex AC power …
The problem of optimizing affine feedback laws that explicitly steer the mean and covariance of an uncertain system state in the presence of a Gaussian random field is considered. Spatially-dependent disturbances are successively approximated with respect to a nominal trajectory by a sequence of jointly Gaussian random vectors. Sequential updates to the nominal control inputs are computed via convex optimization that includes the effect of affine state feedback, the perturbing effects of spatial disturbances, and chance constraints on the closed-loop state and control. The developed method is …
Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints
Ilmenau University of Technology（埃尔福特工业大学）；Institute for Automation and Systems Engineering, Ilmenau University of Technology（埃尔福特工业大学自动化与系统工程研究所）；Otto-von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg（奥托·冯·格里克马格德堡大学）；Institute for Automation Engineering, Otto-von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg（奥托·冯·格里克马格德堡大学自动化工程研究所）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校化学与生物分子工程系）
Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are ideal demand-side flexible resources to provide regulation services. However, finding the best hourly regulation capacity offers for HVAC systems in a power market ahead of time is challenging because they are affected by non-Gaussian uncertainties from regulation signals. Moreover, since HVAC systems need to frequently regulate their power according to regulation signals, numerous thermodynamic constraints are introduced, leading to a huge computational burden. This paper proposes a tractable chance-constrained model to address the…
This work investigates the finite-horizon optimal covariance steering problem for discrete-time linear systems subject to both additive and multiplicative uncertainties as well as state and input chance constraints. In particular, a tractable convex approximation of the optimal covariance steering problem is developed by tightening the chance constraints and by introducing a suitable change of variables. The solution of the convex approximation is shown to be a valid (albeit potentially suboptimal) solution to the original chance-constrained covariance steering problem.
In this paper, we propose a chance constrained stochastic model predictive control scheme for reference tracking of distributed linear time-invariant systems with additive stochastic uncertainty. The chance constraints are reformulated analytically based on mean-variance information, where we design suitable Probabilistic Reachable Sets for constraint tightening. Furthermore, the chance constraints are proven to be satisfied in closed-loop operation. The design of an invariant set for tracking complements the controller and ensures convergence to arbitrary admissible reference points, while a …
In this paper we discuss distributional robustness in the context of stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) for linear time-invariant systems. We derive a simple approximation of the MPC problem under an additive zero-mean i.i.d. noise with quadratic cost. Due to the lack of distributional information, chance constraints are enforced as distributionally robust (DR) chance constraints, which we opt to unify with the concept of probabilistic reachable sets (PRS). For Wasserstein ambiguity sets, we propose a simple convex optimization problem to compute the DR-PRS based on finitely many distu…
A particularly important substructure in modeling joint linear chance-constrained programs with random right-hand sides and finite sample space is the intersection of mixing sets with common binary variables (and possibly a knapsack constraint). In this paper, we first revisit basic mixing sets by establishing a strong and previously unrecognized connection to submodularity. In particular, we show that mixing inequalities with binary variables are nothing but the polymatroid inequalities associated with a specific submodular function. This submodularity viewpoint enables us to unify and extend…
We consider chance-constrained problems with discrete random distribution. We aim for problems with a large number of scenarios. We propose a novel method based on the stochastic gradient descent method which performs updates of the decision variable based only on considering a few scenarios. We modify it to handle the non-separable objective. Complexity analysis and a comparison with the standard (batch) gradient descent method is provided. We give three examples with non-convex data and show that our method provides a good solution fast even when the number of scenarios is large.
Conformal Predictive Programming for Chance Constrained Optimization
Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California（汤姆斯·劳德计算机科学系，南加州大学）；Department of Data Sciences and Operations, University of Southern California（数据科学与运营系，南加州大学）
In this paper, we address the problem of closed-loop control of nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to probabilistic uncertainties. More precisely, we design time-varying polynomial feedback controllers to follow the given nominal trajectory and also, for safety purposes, remain in the tube around the nominal trajectory, despite all uncertainties. We formulate this problem as a chance optimization problem where we maximize the probability of achieving control objectives. To address control problems with long planning horizons, we formulate the single large chance optimization problem as a se…
We study a tight Bennett-type concentration inequality for sums of heterogeneous and independent variables, defined as a one-dimensional minimization. We show that this refinement, which outperforms the standard known bounds, remains computationally tractable: we develop a polynomial-time algorithm to compute confidence bounds, proved to terminate with an epsilon-solution. From the proposed inequality, we deduce tight distributionally robust bounds to Chance-Constrained Programming problems. To illustrate the efficiency of our approach, we consider two use cases. First, we study the chance-con…
We present an algorithm for robust model predictive control with consideration of uncertainty and safety constraints. Our framework considers a nonlinear dynamical system subject to disturbances from an unknown but bounded uncertainty set. By viewing the system as a fixed point of an operator acting over trajectories, we propose a convex condition on control actions that guarantee safety against the uncertainty set. The proposed condition guarantees that all realizations of the state trajectories satisfy safety constraints. Our algorithm solves a sequence of convex quadratic constrained optimi…
We study a generalized distributionally robust chance-constrained set covering problem (DRC) with a Wasserstein ambiguity set, where both decisions and uncertainty are binary-valued. We establish the NP-hardness of DRC and recast it as a two-stage stochastic program, which facilitates decomposition algorithms. Furthermore, we derive two families of valid inequalities. The first family targets the hypograph of a "shifted" submodular function, which is associated with each scenario of the two-stage reformulation. We show that the valid inequalities give a complete description of the convex hull …
This paper details an investigation into the computational performance of algorithms used for solving a convex formulation of the optimization problem associated with model predictive control for energy management in hybrid electric vehicles with nonlinear losses. A projected interior point method is proposed, where the size and complexity of the Newton step matrix inversion is reduced by applying inequality constraints on the control input as a projection, and its properties are demonstrated through simulation in comparison with an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm,…
