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arXiv 2603.04449cs.LGcs.AI
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用于利用结构化临床和认知数据预测阿尔茨海默病的可解释集成框架

An Explainable Ensemble Framework for Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Using Structured Clinical and Cognitive Data

Computer Science \& Engineering (AI\&ML) Institute of Engineering \& Management Kolkata, India

Nishan Mitra

AI总结:

本文提出了一种用于预测阿尔茨海默病的可解释集成框架,结合结构化临床和认知数据,利用多种集成算法和可解释性技术提升预测精度与透明度。

摘要:

早期和准确检测阿尔茨海默病(AD)仍然是医学诊断中的主要挑战,由于其微妙的发病和进行性特征。本研究介绍了一个可解释的集成学习框架,旨在通过结构化临床、生活方式、代谢和生活方式特征将个体分类为阿尔茨海默病或非阿尔茨海默病。该流程结合了严格的数据预处理、先进的特征工程、SMOTE-Tomek混合类平衡技术以及使用五种集成算法——随机森林、XGBoost、LightGBM、CatBoost和Extra Trees——以及深度人工神经网络的优化建模。模型选择通过分层验证进行,以防止泄漏,最佳性能模型在完全未见过的测试集上进行评估。集成方法在深度学习上表现更优,XGBoost、随机森林和软投票在准确性、灵敏度和F1分数方面表现最强。可解释性技术,包括SHAP和特征重要性分析,突显MMSE、功能评估年龄以及几个工程化交互特征为最显著的影响因素。结果表明,所提出的框架提供了一种可靠且透明的阿尔茨海默病预测方法,为临床决策支持应用提供了强大的潜力。

英文摘要:

Early and accurate detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a major challenge in medical diagnosis due to its subtle onset and progressive nature. This research introduces an explainable ensemble learning Framework designed to classify individuals as Alzheimer's or Non-Alzheimer's using structured clinical, lifestyle, metabolic, and lifestyle features. The workflow incorporates rigorous preprocessing, advanced feature engineering, SMOTE-Tomek hybrid class balancing, and optimized modeling using five ensemble algorithms-Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and Extra Trees-alongside a deep artificial neural network. Model selection was performed using stratified validation to prevent leakage, and the best-performing model was evaluated on a fully unseen test set. Ensemble methods achieved superior performance over deep learning, with XGBoost, Random Forest, and Soft Voting showing the strongest accuracy, sensitivity, and F1-score profiles. Explainability techniques, including SHAP and feature importance analysis, highlighted MMSE, Functional Assessment Age, and several engineered interaction features as the most influential determinants. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework provides a reliable and transparent approach to Alzheimer's disease prediction, offering strong potential for clinical decision support applications.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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