While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.
Université Laval（拉瓦尔大学）；Univ. of St-Etienne（圣艾蒂安大学）
This paper provides a theoretical analysis of domain adaptation based on the PAC-Bayesian theory. We propose an improvement of the previous domain adaptation bound obtained by Germain et al. in two ways. We first give another generalization bound tighter and easier to interpret. Moreover, we provide a new analysis of the constant term appearing in the bound that can be of high interest for developing new algorithmic solutions.
Population attributes are essential in health for understanding who the data represents and precision medicine efforts. Even within disease infection labels, patients can exhibit significant variability; "fever" may mean something different when reported in a doctor's office versus from an online app, precluding directly learning across different datasets for the same prediction task. This problem falls into the domain adaptation paradigm. However, research in this area has to-date not considered who generates the data; symptoms reported by a woman versus a man, for example, could also have di…
In this paper, we provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different target distribution. On the one hand, we propose an improvement of the previous approach proposed by Germain et al. (2013), that relies on a novel distribution pseudodistance based on a disagreement averaging, allowing us to derive a new tighter PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation bound for the stochastic Gibbs classifier. We specialize it to linear classifiers, and design a learning algorithm which …
INRIA, SIERRA Project-Team（法国国家信息与自动化研究所，SIERRA项目组）；D.I., Ecole Normale Superieure（巴黎高等师范学校计算机科学系）；Univ Lyon, UJM-Saint-Etienne, CNRS, IOGS, Laboratoire Hubert Curien UMR 5516（里昂大学，圣艾蒂安让·莫内大学，法国国家科学研究中心，IOGS，于贝尔·居里安实验室）；Université Laval（拉瓦尔大学）
We study the issue of PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation: We want to learn, from a source domain, a majority vote model dedicated to a target one. Our theoretical contribution brings a new perspective by deriving an upper-bound on the target risk where the distributions' divergence---expressed as a ratio---controls the trade-off between a source error measure and the target voters' disagreement. Our bound suggests that one has to focus on regions where the source data is informative.From this result, we derive a PAC-Bayesian generalization bound, and specialize it to linear classifiers. Then, we i…
Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur（印度理工学院坎普尔分校）
Continual Learning is a learning paradigm where learning systems are trained with sequential or streaming tasks. Two notable directions among the recent advances in continual learning with neural networks are ($i$) variational Bayes based regularization by learning priors from previous tasks, and, ($ii$) learning the structure of deep networks to adapt to new tasks. So far, these two approaches have been orthogonal. We present a novel Bayesian approach to continual learning based on learning the structure of deep neural networks, addressing the shortcomings of both these approaches. The propos…
We present BOFFIN TTS (Bayesian Optimization For FIne-tuning Neural Text To Speech), a novel approach for few-shot speaker adaptation. Here, the task is to fine-tune a pre-trained TTS model to mimic a new speaker using a small corpus of target utterances. We demonstrate that there does not exist a one-size-fits-all adaptation strategy, with convincing synthesis requiring a corpus-specific configuration of the hyper-parameters that control fine-tuning. By using Bayesian optimization to efficiently optimize these hyper-parameter values for a target speaker, we are able to perform adaptation with…
Université Laval（拉瓦尔大学）；Laboratoire Hubert Curien UMR CNRS 5516（于贝尔·居里安实验室 CNRS UMR 5516）；Univ. Jean Monnet（让·莫内大学）；Aix-Marseille Univ.（艾克斯-马赛大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
In machine learning, Domain Adaptation (DA) arises when the distribution gen- erating the test (target) data differs from the one generating the learning (source) data. It is well known that DA is an hard task even under strong assumptions, among which the covariate-shift where the source and target distributions diverge only in their marginals, i.e. they have the same labeling function. Another popular approach is to consider an hypothesis class that moves closer the two distributions while implying a low-error for both tasks. This is a VC-dim approach that restricts the complexity of an hypo…
In recent years, there has been increasing amount of interest around meta reinforcement learning methods for traffic signal control, which have achieved better performance compared with traditional control methods. However, previous methods lack robustness in adaptation and stability in training process in complex situations, which largely limits its application in real-world traffic signal control. In this paper, we propose a novel value-based Bayesian meta-reinforcement learning framework BM-DQN to robustly speed up the learning process in new scenarios by utilizing well-trained prior knowle…
Google（谷歌）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）；XaiPient
We consider representation learning (hypothesis class $\mathcal{H} = \mathcal{F}\circ\mathcal{G}$) where training and test distributions can be different. Recent studies provide hints and failure examples for domain invariant representation learning, a common approach for this problem, but the explanations provided are somewhat different and do not provide a unified picture. In this paper, we provide new decompositions of risk which give finer-grained explanations and clarify potential generalization issues. For Single-Source Domain Adaptation, we give an exact decomposition (an equality) of t…
Qiushi Academy for Advanced Studies, Zhejiang University（浙江大学求是高等研究院）；College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机科学与技术学院）；State University of New York at Buffalo（纽约州立大学布法罗分校）；Zhejiang University School of Medicine（浙江大学医学院）
Domain adaptation is an important technique to alleviate performance degradation caused by domain shift, e.g., when training and test data come from different domains. Most existing deep adaptation methods focus on reducing domain shift by matching marginal feature distributions through deep transformations on the input features, due to the unavailability of target domain labels. We show that domain shift may still exist via label distribution shift at the classifier, thus deteriorating model performances. To alleviate this issue, we propose an approximate joint distribution matching scheme by…
Active learning - the field of machine learning (ML) dedicated to optimal experiment design, has played a part in science as far back as the 18th century when Laplace used it to guide his discovery of celestial mechanics [1]. In this work we focus a closed-loop, active learning-driven autonomous system on another major challenge, the discovery of advanced materials against the exceedingly complex synthesis-processes-structure-property landscape. We demonstrate autonomous research methodology (i.e. autonomous hypothesis definition and evaluation) that can place complex, advanced materials in re…
While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease labels there can be differences (e.g. "fever" may mean something different reported in a doctor's office versus in an online app). Moreover, models are often built on passive, observational data which contain different distributions of population subgroups (e.g. men or women). Thus, there are two forms of instability between environments in this observationa…
In the need for low assumption inferential methods in infinite-dimensional settings, Bayesian adaptive estimation via a prior distribution that does not depend on the regularity of the function to be estimated nor on the sample size is valuable. We elucidate relationships among the main approaches followed to design priors for minimax-optimal rate-adaptive estimation meanwhile shedding light on the underlying ideas.
This paper studies a Bayesian approach to non-asymptotic minimax adaptation in nonparametric estimation. Estimating an input function on the basis of output functions in a Gaussian white-noise model is discussed. The input function is assumed to be in a Sobolev ellipsoid with an unknown smoothness and an unknown radius. Our purpose in this paper is to present a Bayesian approach attaining minimaxity up to a universal constant without any knowledge regarding the smoothness and the radius. Our Bayesian approach provides not only a rate-exact minimax adaptive estimator in large sample asymptotics…
Quantum state tomography, an important task in quantum information processing, aims at reconstructing a state from prepared measurement data. Bayesian methods are recognized to be one of the good and reliable choice in estimating quantum states~\cite{blume2010optimal}. Several numerical works showed that Bayesian estimations are comparable to, and even better than other methods in the problem of $1$-qubit state recovery. However, the problem of choosing prior distribution in the general case of $n$ qubits is not straightforward. More importantly, the statistical performance of Bayesian type es…
Land cover maps are a vital input variable to many types of environmental research and management. While they can be produced automatically by machine learning techniques, these techniques require substantial training data to achieve high levels of accuracy, which are not always available. One technique researchers use when labelled training data are scarce is domain adaptation (DA) -- where data from an alternate region, known as the source domain, are used to train a classifier and this model is adapted to map the study region, or target domain. The scenario we address in this paper is known…
This article reviews how organisms learn and recognize the world through the dynamics of neural networks from the perspective of Bayesian inference, and introduces a view on how such dynamics is described by the laws for the entropy of neural activity, a paradigm that we call thermodynamics of the Bayesian brain. The Bayesian brain hypothesis sees the stimulus-evoked activity of neurons as an act of constructing the Bayesian posterior distribution based on the generative model of the external world that an organism possesses. A closer look at the stimulus-evoked activity at early sensory corti…
A novel block prior is proposed for adaptive Bayesian estimation. The prior does not depend on the smoothness of the function or the sample size. It puts sufficient prior mass near the true signal and automatically concentrates on its effective dimension. A rate-optimal posterior contraction is obtained in a general framework, which includes density estimation, white noise model, Gaussian sequence model, Gaussian regression and spectral density estimation.
This paper is considered with joint estimation of state and time-varying noise covariance matrices in non-linear stochastic state space models. We present a variational Bayes and Gaussian filtering based algorithm for efficient computation of the approximate filtering posterior distributions. The Gaussian filtering based formulation of the non-linear state space model computation allows usage of efficient Gaussian integration methods such as unscented transform, cubature integration and Gauss-Hermite integration along with the classical Taylor series approximations. The performance of the algo…
Many real-life applications involve estimation of curves that exhibit complicated shapes including jumps or varying-frequency oscillations. Practical methods have been devised that can adapt to a locally varying complexity of an unknown function (e.g. variable-knot splines, sparse wavelet reconstructions, kernel methods or trees/forests). However, the overwhelming majority of existing asymptotic minimaxity theory is predicated on homogeneous smoothness assumptions. Focusing on locally Holderian functions, we provide new locally adaptive posterior concentration rate results under the supremum l…
Dropout has recently emerged as a powerful and simple method for training neural networks preventing co-adaptation by stochastically omitting neurons. Dropout is currently not grounded in explicit modelling assumptions which so far has precluded its adoption in Bayesian modelling. Using Bayesian entropic reasoning we show that dropout can be interpreted as optimal inference under constraints. We demonstrate this on an analytically tractable regression model providing a Bayesian interpretation of its mechanism for regularizing and preventing co-adaptation as well as its connection to other Baye…
A central part of population genomics consists of finding genomic regions implicated in local adaptation. Population genomic analyses are based on genotyping numerous molecular markers and looking for outlier loci in terms of patterns of genetic differentiation. One of the most common approach for selection scan is based on statistics that measure population differentiation such as $F_{ST}$. However they are important caveats with approaches related to $F_{ST}$ because they require grouping individuals into populations and they additionally assume a particular model of population structure. He…
We introduce a methodology for robust Bayesian estimation with robust divergence (e.g., density power divergence or γ-divergence), indexed by a single tuning parameter. It is well known that the posterior density induced by robust divergence gives highly robust estimators against outliers if the tuning parameter is appropriately and carefully chosen. In a Bayesian framework, one way to find the optimal tuning parameter would be using evidence (marginal likelihood). However, we numerically illustrate that evidence induced by the density power divergence does not work to select the optimal tunin…
Norwegian University of Science and Technology（挪威科技大学）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
This article investigates the optimization of yaw control inputs of a nine-turbine wind farm. The wind farm is simulated using the high-fidelity simulator SOWFA. The optimization is performed with a modifier adaptation scheme based on Gaussian processes. Modifier adaptation corrects for the mismatch between plant and model and helps to converge to the actual plan optimum. In the case study the modifier adaptation approach is compared with the Bayesian optimization approach. Moreover, the use of two different covariance functions in the Gaussian process regression is discussed. Practical recomm…
We propose a flexible design for the identification of optimal dose combinations in dual-agent dose-finding clinical trials. The design is called AAA, standing for three adaptations: adaptive model selection, adaptive dose insertion, and adaptive cohort divi- sion. The adaptations highlight the need and opportunity for innovation for dual-agent dose finding, and are supported by the numerical results presented in the proposed simulation studies. To our knowledge, this is the first design that allows for all three adaptations at the same time. We find that AAA improves the statistical inference…
In games, as well as many user-facing systems, adapting content to users' preferences and experience is an important challenge. This paper explores a novel method to realize this goal in the context of dynamic difficulty adjustment (DDA). Here the aim is to constantly adapt the content of a game to the skill level of the player, keeping them engaged by avoiding states that are either too difficult or too easy. Current systems for DDA rely on expensive data mining, or on hand-crafted rules designed for particular domains, and usually adapts to keep players in the flow, leaving no room for the d…
Recently, S. Arlot and R. Genuer have shown that a model of random forests outperforms its single-tree counterpart in the estimation of $α-$Hölder functions, $α\leq2$. This backs up the idea that ensembles of tree estimators are smoother estimators than single trees. On the other hand, most positive optimality results on Bayesian tree-based methods assume that $α\leq1$. Naturally, one wonders whether Bayesian counterparts of forest estimators are optimal on smoother classes, just like it has been observed for frequentist estimators for $α\leq 2$. We dwell on the problem of density estimation a…
Quantile regression is a powerful data analysis tool that accommodates heterogeneous covariate-response relationships. We find that by coupling the asymmetric Laplace working likelihood with appropriate shrinkage priors, we can deliver posterior inference that automatically adapts to possible sparsity in quantile regression analysis. After a suitable adjustment on the posterior variance, the posterior inference provides asymptotically valid inference under heterogeneity. Furthermore, the proposed approach leads to oracle asymptotic efficiency for the active (nonzero) quantile regression coeffi…
Determining causes of deaths (COD) occurred outside of civil registration and vital statistics systems is challenging. A technique called verbal autopsy (VA) is widely adopted to gather information on deaths in practice. A VA consists of interviewing relatives of a deceased person about symptoms of the deceased in the period leading to the death, often resulting in multivariate binary responses. While statistical methods have been devised for estimating the cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for a study population, continued expansion of VA to new populations (or "domains") necessitate…
Training agents in cooperative settings offers the promise of AI agents able to interact effectively with humans (and other agents) in the real world. Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has the potential to achieve this goal, demonstrating success in a series of challenging problems. However, whilst these advances are significant, the vast majority of focus has been on the self-play paradigm. This often results in a coordination problem, caused by agents learning to make use of arbitrary conventions when playing with themselves. This means that even the strongest self-play agents may ha…
Despite recent advances, the remaining bottlenecks in deep generative models are necessity of extensive training and difficulties with generalization from small number of training examples. We develop a new generative model called Generative Matching Network which is inspired by the recently proposed matching networks for one-shot learning in discriminative tasks. By conditioning on the additional input dataset, our model can instantly learn new concepts that were not available in the training data but conform to a similar generative process. The proposed framework does not explicitly restrict…
The concept of mathematical modeling is widespread across almost all of the fields of contemporary science and engineering. Because of the existing necessity of predictions the behavior of natural phenomena, the researchers develop more and more complex models. However, despite their ability to better forecasting, the problem of an appropriate fitting ground truth data to those, high-dimensional and nonlinear models seems to be inevitable. In order to deal with this demanding problem the entire discipline of data assimilation has been developed. Basing on the Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY) …
We provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different, but related, target distribution. Firstly, we propose an improvement of the previous approach we proposed in Germain et al. (2013), which relies on a novel distribution pseudodistance based on a disagreement averaging, allowing us to derive a new tighter domain adaptation bound for the target risk. While this bound stands in the spirit of common domain adaptation works, we derive a second bound (introduced in…
Training a deep neural network requires a large amount of single-task data and involves a long time-consuming optimization phase. This is not scalable to complex, realistic environments with new unexpected changes. Humans can perform fast incremental learning on the fly and memory systems in the brain play a critical role. We introduce Sparse Meta Networks -- a meta-learning approach to learn online sequential adaptation algorithms for deep neural networks, by using deep neural networks. We augment a deep neural network with a layer-specific fast-weight memory. The fast-weights are generated s…
