We provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different, but related, target distribution. Firstly, we propose an improvement of the previous approach we proposed in Germain et al. (2013), which relies on a novel distribution pseudodistance based on a disagreement averaging, allowing us to derive a new tighter domain adaptation bound for the target risk. While this bound stands in the spirit of common domain adaptation works, we derive a second bound (introduced in Germain et al., 2016) that brings a new perspective on domain adaptation by deriving an upper bound on the target risk where the distributions' divergence-expressed as a ratio-controls the trade-off between a source error measure and the target voters' disagreement. We discuss and compare both results, from which we obtain PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Furthermore, from the PAC-Bayesian specialization to linear classifiers, we infer two learning algorithms, and we evaluate them on real data.
When I first encountered PAC-Bayesian concentration inequalities they seemed to me to be rather disconnected from good old-fashioned results like Hoeffding's and Bernstein's inequalities. But, at least for one flavour of the PAC-Bayesian bounds, there is actually a very close relation, and the main innovation is a continuous version of the union bound, along with some ingenious applications. Here's the gist of what's going on, presented from a machine learning perspective.
We study PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs) with the cross entropy loss. Above all, we introduce probabilistic explanations for MLPs in two aspects: (i) MLPs formulate a family of Gibbs distributions, and (ii) minimizing the cross-entropy loss for MLPs is equivalent to Bayesian variational inference, which establish a solid probabilistic foundation for studying PAC-Bayesian bounds on MLPs. Furthermore, based on the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO), we prove that MLPs with the cross entropy loss inherently guarantee PAC- Bayesian generalization bounds, and minimizin…
By leveraging experience from previous tasks, meta-learning algorithms can achieve effective fast adaptation ability when encountering new tasks. However it is unclear how the generalization property applies to new tasks. Probably approximately correct (PAC) Bayes bound theory provides a theoretical framework to analyze the generalization performance for meta-learning. We derive three novel generalisation error bounds for meta-learning based on PAC-Bayes relative entropy bound. Furthermore, using the empirical risk minimization (ERM) method, a PAC-Bayes bound for meta-learning with data-depend…
Tel Aviv University(特拉维夫大学);Google AI(谷歌人工智能);Princeton(普林斯顿大学)
PAC-Bayes is a useful framework for deriving generalization bounds which was introduced by McAllester ('98). This framework has the flexibility of deriving distribution- and algorithm-dependent bounds, which are often tighter than VC-related uniform convergence bounds. In this manuscript we present a limitation for the PAC-Bayes framework. We demonstrate an easy learning task that is not amenable to a PAC-Bayes analysis. Specifically, we consider the task of linear classification in 1D; it is well-known that this task is learnable using just $O(\log(1/δ)/ε)$ examples. On the other hand, we sho…
University College London(伦敦大学学院);Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所)
When utilising PAC-Bayes theory for risk certification, it is usually necessary to estimate and bound the Gibbs risk of the PAC-Bayes posterior. Many works in the literature employ a method for this which requires a large number of passes of the dataset, incurring high computational cost. This manuscript presents a very general alternative which makes computational savings on the order of the dataset size.
Recent studies have empirically investigated different methods to train stochastic neural networks on a classification task by optimising a PAC-Bayesian bound via stochastic gradient descent. Most of these procedures need to replace the misclassification error with a surrogate loss, leading to a mismatch between the optimisation objective and the actual generalisation bound. The present paper proposes a novel training algorithm that optimises the PAC-Bayesian bound, without relying on any surrogate loss. Empirical results show that this approach outperforms currently available PAC-Bayesian tra…
Meta learning automatically infers an inductive bias, that includes the hyperparameter of the base-learning algorithm, by observing data from a finite number of related tasks. This paper studies PAC-Bayes bounds on meta generalization gap. The meta-generalization gap comprises two sources of generalization gaps: the environment-level and task-level gaps resulting from observation of a finite number of tasks and data samples per task, respectively. In this paper, by upper bounding arbitrary convex functions, which link the expected and empirical losses at the environment and also per-task level…
We explore the family of methods "PAC-Bayes with Backprop" (PBB) to train probabilistic neural networks by minimizing PAC-Bayes bounds. We present two training objectives, one derived from a previously known PAC-Bayes bound, and a second one derived from a novel PAC-Bayes bound. Both training objectives are evaluated on MNIST and on various UCI data sets. Our experiments show two striking observations: we obtain competitive test set error estimates (~1.4% on MNIST) and at the same time we compute non-vacuous bounds with much tighter values (~2.3% on MNIST) than previous results. These observat…
We derive PAC-Bayesian learning guarantees for heavy-tailed losses, and obtain a novel optimal Gibbs posterior which enjoys finite-sample excess risk bounds at logarithmic confidence. Our core technique itself makes use of PAC-Bayesian inequalities in order to derive a robust risk estimator, which by design is easy to compute. In particular, only assuming that the first three moments of the loss distribution are bounded, the learning algorithm derived from this estimator achieves nearly sub-Gaussian statistical error, up to the quality of the prior.
University of Toronto(多伦多大学);Vector Institute(向量研究所)
The developments of Rademacher complexity and PAC-Bayesian theory have been largely independent. One exception is the PAC-Bayes theorem of Kakade, Sridharan, and Tewari (2008), which is established via Rademacher complexity theory by viewing Gibbs classifiers as linear operators. The goal of this paper is to extend this bridge between Rademacher complexity and state-of-the-art PAC-Bayesian theory. We first demonstrate that one can match the fast rate of Catoni's PAC-Bayes bounds (Catoni, 2007) using shifted Rademacher processes (Wegkamp, 2003; Lecué and Mitchell, 2012; Zhivotovskiy and Hanneke…
We consider using an ensemble of binary classifiers for transductive prediction, when unlabeled test data are known in advance. We derive minimax optimal rules for confidence-rated prediction in this setting. By using PAC-Bayes analysis on these rules, we obtain data-dependent performance guarantees without distributional assumptions on the data. Our analysis techniques are readily extended to a setting in which the predictor is allowed to abstain.
CWI Amsterdam(阿姆斯特丹数学与计算机科学国家研究所);Leiden University(莱顿大学);Google Research(谷歌研究院);Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University(东北大学库里计算机科学学院)
We give a novel, unified derivation of conditional PAC-Bayesian and mutual information (MI) generalization bounds. We derive conditional MI bounds as an instance, with special choice of prior, of conditional MAC-Bayesian (Mean Approximately Correct) bounds, itself derived from conditional PAC-Bayesian bounds, where `conditional' means that one can use priors conditioned on a joint training and ghost sample. This allows us to get nontrivial PAC-Bayes and MI-style bounds for general VC classes, something recently shown to be impossible with standard PAC-Bayesian/MI bounds. Second, it allows us t…
We give tight concentration bounds for mixtures of martingales that are simultaneously uniform over (a) mixture distributions, in a PAC-Bayes sense; and (b) all finite times. These bounds are proved in terms of the martingale variance, extending classical Bernstein inequalities, and sharpening and simplifying prior work.
University of Copenhagen(哥本哈根大学);University of Aalborg(奥尔堡大学)
We present a new second-order oracle bound for the expected risk of a weighted majority vote. The bound is based on a novel parametric form of the Chebyshev- Cantelli inequality (a.k.a. one-sided Chebyshev's), which is amenable to efficient minimization. The new form resolves the optimization challenge faced by prior oracle bounds based on the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality, the C-bounds [Germain et al., 2015], and, at the same time, it improves on the oracle bound based on second order Markov's inequality introduced by Masegosa et al. [2020]. We also derive a new concentration of measure inequ…
We investigate the cold posterior effect through the lens of PAC-Bayes generalization bounds. We argue that in the non-asymptotic setting, when the number of training samples is (relatively) small, discussions of the cold posterior effect should take into account that approximate Bayesian inference does not readily provide guarantees of performance on out-of-sample data. Instead, out-of-sample error is better described through a generalization bound. In this context, we explore the connections between the ELBO objective from variational inference and the PAC-Bayes objectives. We note that, whi…
Despite recent advances in its theoretical understanding, there still remains a significant gap in the ability of existing PAC-Bayesian theories on meta-learning to explain performance improvements in the few-shot learning setting, where the number of training examples in the target tasks is severely limited. This gap originates from an assumption in the existing theories which supposes that the number of training examples in the observed tasks and the number of training examples in the target tasks follow the same distribution, an assumption that rarely holds in practice. By relaxing this ass…
UCL(伦敦大学学院);University Carlos III of Madrid(马德里卡洛斯三世大学);East China Normal University(华东师范大学);Deepmind
PAC-Bayes bounds have been proposed to get risk estimates based on a training sample. In this paper the PAC-Bayes approach is combined with stability of the hypothesis learned by a Hilbert space valued algorithm. The PAC-Bayes setting is used with a Gaussian prior centered at the expected output. Thus a novelty of our paper is using priors defined in terms of the data-generating distribution. Our main result estimates the risk of the randomized algorithm in terms of the hypothesis stability coefficients. We also provide a new bound for the SVM classifier, which is compared to other known bound…
We present a new concentration of measure inequality for sums of independent bounded random variables, which we name a split-kl inequality. The inequality is particularly well-suited for ternary random variables, which naturally show up in a variety of problems, including analysis of excess losses in classification, analysis of weighted majority votes, and learning with abstention. We demonstrate that for ternary random variables the inequality is simultaneously competitive with the kl inequality, the Empirical Bernstein inequality, and the Unexpected Bernstein inequality, and in certain regim…
Equivariant networks capture the inductive bias about the symmetry of the learning task by building those symmetries into the model. In this paper, we study how equivariance relates to generalization error utilizing PAC Bayesian analysis for equivariant networks, where the transformation laws of feature spaces are determined by group representations. By using perturbation analysis of equivariant networks in Fourier domain for each layer, we derive norm-based PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. The bound characterizes the impact of group size, and multiplicity and degree of irreducible represen…
Centre for Artificial Intelligence(人工智能中心);University College London(伦敦大学学院);Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所)
We make three related contributions motivated by the challenge of training stochastic neural networks, particularly in a PAC-Bayesian setting: (1) we show how averaging over an ensemble of stochastic neural networks enables a new class of \emph{partially-aggregated} estimators; (2) we show that these lead to provably lower-variance gradient estimates for non-differentiable signed-output networks; (3) we reformulate a PAC-Bayesian bound for these networks to derive a directly optimisable, differentiable objective and a generalisation guarantee, without using a surrogate loss or loosening the bo…
Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所);University College London(伦敦大学学院)
Most PAC-Bayesian bounds hold in the batch learning setting where data is collected at once, prior to inference or prediction. This somewhat departs from many contemporary learning problems where data streams are collected and the algorithms must dynamically adjust. We prove new PAC-Bayesian bounds in this online learning framework, leveraging an updated definition of regret, and we revisit classical PAC-Bayesian results with a batch-to-online conversion, extending their remit to the case of dependent data. Our results hold for bounded losses, potentially \emph{non-convex}, paving the way to p…
PAC-Bayesian Generalization Guarantees for Fairness on Stochastic and Deterministic Classifiers
CNRS(法国国家科学研究中心);Institut d Optique Graduate School(高等光学学院);Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所);Institut Universitaire de France(法国大学研究院);Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1(里昂第一大学);Univ Rennes(雷恩大学)
Learning sentence vectors from an unlabeled corpus has attracted attention because such vectors can represent sentences in a lower dimensional and continuous space. Simple heuristics using pre-trained word vectors are widely applied to machine learning tasks. However, they are not well understood from a theoretical perspective. We analyze learning sentence vectors from a transfer learning perspective by using a PAC-Bayes bound that enables us to understand existing heuristics. We show that simple heuristics such as averaging and inverse document frequency weighted averaging are derived by our …
Australian Institute for Machine Learning, University of Adelaide(阿德莱德大学机器学习研究所);Monash University(莫纳什大学)
We introduce a new and rigorously-formulated PAC-Bayes meta-learning algorithm that solves few-shot learning. Our proposed method extends the PAC-Bayes framework from a single task setting to the meta-learning multiple task setting to upper-bound the error evaluated on any, even unseen, tasks and samples. We also propose a generative-based approach to estimate the posterior of task-specific model parameters more expressively compared to the usual assumption based on a multivariate normal distribution with a diagonal covariance matrix. We show that the models trained with our proposed meta-lear…
In this work, we propose a PAC-Bayes bound for the generalization risk of the Gibbs classifier in the multi-class classification framework. The novelty of our work is the critical use of the confusion matrix of a classifier as an error measure; this puts our contribution in the line of work aiming at dealing with performance measure that are richer than mere scalar criterion such as the misclassification rate. Thanks to very recent and beautiful results on matrix concentration inequalities, we derive two bounds showing that the true confusion risk of the Gibbs classifier is upper-bounded by it…
University of Cambridge(剑桥大学);Element AI;University of Toronto(多伦多大学);Vector Institute(向量研究所)
The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayes framework (McAllester, 1999) can incorporate knowledge about the learning algorithm and (data) distribution through the use of distribution-dependent priors, yielding tighter generalization bounds on data-dependent posteriors. Using this flexibility, however, is difficult, especially when the data distribution is presumed to be unknown. We show how an ε-differentially private data-dependent prior yields a valid PAC-Bayes bound, and then show how non-private mechanisms for choosing priors can also yield generalization bounds. As an application of t…
University College London(伦敦大学学院);Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所)
We introduce a modified version of the excess risk, which can be used to obtain tighter, fast-rate PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds. This modified excess risk leverages information about the relative hardness of data examples to reduce the variance of its empirical counterpart, tightening the bound. We combine this with a new bound for $[-1, 1]$-valued (and potentially non-independent) signed losses, which is more favourable when they empirically have low variance around $0$. The primary new technical tool is a novel result for sequences of interdependent random vectors which may be of indep…
East China Normal University(华东师范大学);University College London(伦敦大学学院)
This paper presents eight PAC-Bayes bounds to analyze the generalization performance of multi-view classifiers. These bounds adopt data dependent Gaussian priors which emphasize classifiers with high view agreements. The center of the prior for the first two bounds is the origin, while the center of the prior for the third and fourth bounds is given by a data dependent vector. An important technique to obtain these bounds is two derived logarithmic determinant inequalities whose difference lies in whether the dimensionality of data is involved. The centers of the fifth and sixth bounds are cal…
Mines ParisTech – PSL(巴黎高等矿业学院——巴黎文理研究大学);Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所);Sorbonne Université(索邦大学);University College London(伦敦大学学院)
Many practical machine learning tasks can be framed as Structured prediction problems, where several output variables are predicted and considered interdependent. Recent theoretical advances in structured prediction have focused on obtaining fast rates convergence guarantees, especially in the Implicit Loss Embedding (ILE) framework. PAC-Bayes has gained interest recently for its capacity of producing tight risk bounds for predictor distributions. This work proposes a novel PAC-Bayes perspective on the ILE Structured prediction framework. We present two generalization bounds, on the risk and e…
Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所);ENS Paris-Saclay(巴黎萨克雷高等师范学校);University College London(伦敦大学学院)
We present new PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for learning problems with unbounded loss functions. This extends the relevance and applicability of the PAC-Bayes learning framework, where most of the existing literature focuses on supervised learning problems with a bounded loss function (typically assumed to take values in the interval [0;1]). In order to relax this assumption, we propose a new notion called HYPE (standing for \emph{HYPothesis-dependent rangE}), which effectively allows the range of the loss to depend on each predictor. Based on this new notion we derive a novel PAC-Bayesi…
Univ Lyon, UJM-Saint-Etienne, CNRS, Institut d Optique Graduate School, Laboratoire Hubert Curien UMR 5516(里昂大学,圣埃蒂安让·莫内大学,法国国家科学研究中心,光学研究生院,于贝尔·居里安实验室 UMR 5516);Airbus Opération S.A.S(空中客车运营公司);University of Toulouse, Institut de Recherche en Informatique de Toulouse(图卢兹大学,图卢兹信息研究所)
We propose the first general PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for adversarial robustness, that estimate, at test time, how much a model will be invariant to imperceptible perturbations in the input. Instead of deriving a worst-case analysis of the risk of a hypothesis over all the possible perturbations, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian framework to bound the averaged risk on the perturbations for majority votes (over the whole class of hypotheses). Our theoretically founded analysis has the advantage to provide general bounds (i) that are valid for any kind of attacks (i.e., the adversarial att…
We focus on a stochastic learning model where the learner observes a finite set of training examples and the output of the learning process is a data-dependent distribution over a space of hypotheses. The learned data-dependent distribution is then used to make randomized predictions, and the high-level theme addressed here is guaranteeing the quality of predictions on examples that were not seen during training, i.e. generalization. In this setting the unknown quantity of interest is the expected risk of the data-dependent randomized predictor, for which upper bounds can be derived via a PAC-…
Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所);University College London(伦敦大学学院);Université Paris-Saclay(巴黎萨克雷大学)
"No free lunch" results state the impossibility of obtaining meaningful bounds on the error of a learning algorithm without prior assumptions and modelling. Some models are expensive (strong assumptions, such as as subgaussian tails), others are cheap (simply finite variance). As it is well known, the more you pay, the more you get: in other words, the most expensive models yield the more interesting bounds. Recent advances in robust statistics have investigated procedures to obtain tight bounds while keeping the cost minimal. The present paper explores and exhibits what the limits are for obt…
University of Cambridge(剑桥大学);Invenia Labs(Invenia实验室)
In this paper, we investigate the question: Given a small number of datapoints, for example N = 30, how tight can PAC-Bayes and test set bounds be made? For such small datasets, test set bounds adversely affect generalisation performance by withholding data from the training procedure. In this setting, PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive, due to their ability to use all the data to simultaneously learn a posterior and bound its generalisation risk. We focus on the case of i.i.d. data with a bounded loss and consider the generic PAC-Bayes theorem of Germain et al. While their theorem is …
This habilitation thesis presents several contributions to (1) the PAC-Bayesian analysis of statistical learning, (2) the three aggregation problems: given d functions, how to predict as well as (i) the best of these d functions (model selection type aggregation), (ii) the best convex combination of these d functions, (iii) the best linear combination of these d functions, (3) the multi-armed bandit problems.
University College London(伦敦大学学院);Inria(法国国家信息与自动化研究所)
We give a general recipe for derandomising PAC-Bayesian bounds using margins, with the critical ingredient being that our randomised predictions concentrate around some value. The tools we develop straightforwardly lead to margin bounds for various classifiers, including linear prediction -- a class that includes boosting and the support vector machine -- single-hidden-layer neural networks with an unusual \(\erf\) activation function, and deep ReLU networks. Further, we extend to partially-derandomised predictors where only some of the randomness is removed, letting us extend bounds to cases …
Université Laval(拉瓦尔大学);Univ. of St-Etienne(圣艾蒂安大学)
This paper provides a theoretical analysis of domain adaptation based on the PAC-Bayesian theory. We propose an improvement of the previous domain adaptation bound obtained by Germain et al. in two ways. We first give another generalization bound tighter and easier to interpret. Moreover, we provide a new analysis of the constant term appearing in the bound that can be of high interest for developing new algorithmic solutions.
INRIA Paris - École Normale Supérieure(法国国家信息与自动化研究所巴黎分部 - 巴黎高等师范学院);Google(谷歌)
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanation to the Bayesian Occam's razor criteria, under the assumption that the data is generated by an i.i.d distribution. Moreover, as the negative log-likelihood is an unbounded loss function, we motivate and propose a PAC-Bayesian theorem tailored for the sub-gamma loss family, and w…
Inria Lille - Nord Europe(法国国家信息与自动化研究所里尔-北欧中心);University College London(伦敦大学学院)
Generalised Bayesian learning algorithms are increasingly popular in machine learning, due to their PAC generalisation properties and flexibility. The present paper aims at providing a self-contained survey on the resulting PAC-Bayes framework and some of its main theoretical and algorithmic developments.
The Bayesian posterior minimizes the "inferential risk" which itself bounds the "predictive risk". This bound is tight when the likelihood and prior are well-specified. However since misspecification induces a gap, the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution may have poor generalization performance. This work develops a multi-sample loss (PAC$^m$) which can close the gap by spanning a trade-off between the two risks. The loss is computationally favorable and offers PAC generalization guarantees. Empirical study demonstrates improvement to the predictive distribution.
McGill University(麦吉尔大学);University of Alberta(阿尔伯塔大学)
Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors. PAC-Bayesian methods overcome this problem by providing bounds that hold regardless of the correctness of the prior distribution. This paper introduces the first PAC-Bayesian bound for the batch reinforcement learning problem with function approximation. We show how this bound can be used to perform model-selection in a transfer learning scenario. Our empirical …
Population attributes are essential in health for understanding who the data represents and precision medicine efforts. Even within disease infection labels, patients can exhibit significant variability; "fever" may mean something different when reported in a doctor's office versus from an online app, precluding directly learning across different datasets for the same prediction task. This problem falls into the domain adaptation paradigm. However, research in this area has to-date not considered who generates the data; symptoms reported by a woman versus a man, for example, could also have di…
LTS2;EPFL(洛桑联邦理工学院);IDCOM;University of Edinburgh(爱丁堡大学)
Recently the generalization error of deep neural networks has been analyzed through the PAC-Bayesian framework, for the case of fully connected layers. We adapt this approach to the convolutional setting.
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and deterministic predictors often performs well in practice. To fill this gap, we develop a new generalization error bound, the PAC-Bayesian transportation bound, unifying the PAC-Bayesian analysis and the chaining method in view of the optimal transportation. It is the first PAC-Bayesian bound that relates the risks of any two predictors according to their distance,…
Meta-learning can successfully acquire useful inductive biases from data. Yet, its generalization properties to unseen learning tasks are poorly understood. Particularly if the number of meta-training tasks is small, this raises concerns about overfitting. We provide a theoretical analysis using the PAC-Bayesian framework and derive novel generalization bounds for meta-learning. Using these bounds, we develop a class of PAC-optimal meta-learning algorithms with performance guarantees and a principled meta-level regularization. Unlike previous PAC-Bayesian meta-learners, our method results in a…
In this paper, we provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different target distribution. On the one hand, we propose an improvement of the previous approach proposed by Germain et al. (2013), that relies on a novel distribution pseudodistance based on a disagreement averaging, allowing us to derive a new tighter PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation bound for the stochastic Gibbs classifier. We specialize it to linear classifiers, and design a learning algorithm which …
INRIA, SIERRA Project-Team(法国国家信息与自动化研究所,SIERRA项目组);D.I., Ecole Normale Superieure(巴黎高等师范学校计算机科学系);Univ Lyon, UJM-Saint-Etienne, CNRS, IOGS, Laboratoire Hubert Curien UMR 5516(里昂大学,圣艾蒂安让·莫内大学,法国国家科学研究中心,IOGS,于贝尔·居里安实验室);Université Laval(拉瓦尔大学)
We study the issue of PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation: We want to learn, from a source domain, a majority vote model dedicated to a target one. Our theoretical contribution brings a new perspective by deriving an upper-bound on the target risk where the distributions' divergence---expressed as a ratio---controls the trade-off between a source error measure and the target voters' disagreement. Our bound suggests that one has to focus on regions where the source data is informative.From this result, we derive a PAC-Bayesian generalization bound, and specialize it to linear classifiers. Then, we i…
Aalborg University(奥尔堡大学);Laboratoire Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL)(里尔信号与自动化实验室(CRIStAL))
In this paper we derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for autonomous stochastic LTI state-space models. The motivation for deriving such error bounds is that they will allow deriving similar error bounds for more general dynamical systems, including recurrent neural networks. In turn, PACBayesian error bounds are known to be useful for analyzing machine learning algorithms and for deriving new ones.