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机器学习算法预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险:系统综述

Machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms: a systematic review

King’s College London(伦敦国王学院);Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust(盖伊和圣托马斯国民保健服务基金会信托);University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust(伦敦大学学院医院国民保健服务基金会信托);King’s College Hospital(国王学院医院)

Karan Daga, Siddharth Agarwal, Zaeem Moti, Matthew BK Lee, Munaib Din, David Wood, Marc Modat, Thomas C Booth

AI总结:

本研究系统综述机器学习算法预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险的性能,通过检索四大数据库20项研究,发现模型准确率0.66-0.90但与临床标准比较结果不一,现有证据未证明其优于传统方法,需进一步验证。

摘要:

目的:蛛网膜下腔出血是颅内动脉瘤破裂的潜在致命后果,但难以预测动脉瘤是否会破裂。颅内动脉瘤的预防性治疗也存在风险,因此识别易破裂动脉瘤具有重要临床意义。本系统综述旨在评估机器学习算法预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险的性能。方法:检索MEDLINE、Embase、Cochrane Library和Web of Science数据库至2023年12月,纳入所有采用机器学习算法预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险的研究,使用预测模型偏倚风险评估工具(PROBAST)评估偏倚风险,PROSPERO注册号为CRD42023452509。结果:在筛选的10307条记录中,20项研究符合纳入标准,共涉及20286例动脉瘤病例;机器学习模型的性能准确率范围为0.66-0.90;6项研究将模型与当前临床标准比较,结果喜忧参半;多数研究存在高偏倚风险或适用性问题,限制了结论的推断;缺乏足够同质数据进行荟萃分析。结论:机器学习可用于预测颅内动脉瘤破裂风险,但现有证据未全面证明其优于现有实践,限制了其作为临床辅助工具的作用;在临床应用前,需进一步开展前瞻性多中心研究验证近期机器学习工具的临床有效性。

英文摘要:

Purpose: Subarachnoid haemorrhage is a potentially fatal consequence of intracranial aneurysm rupture, however, it is difficult to predict if aneurysms will rupture. Prophylactic treatment of an intracranial aneurysm also involves risk, hence identifying rupture-prone aneurysms is of substantial clinical importance. This systematic review aims to evaluate the performance of machine learning algorithms for predicting intracranial aneurysm rupture risk. Methods: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched until December 2023. Studies incorporating any machine learning algorithm to predict the risk of rupture of an intracranial aneurysm were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). PROSPERO registration: CRD42023452509. Results: Out of 10,307 records screened, 20 studies met the eligibility criteria for this review incorporating a total of 20,286 aneurysm cases. The machine learning models gave a 0.66-0.90 range for performance accuracy. The models were compared to current clinical standards in six studies and gave mixed results. Most studies posed high or unclear risks of bias and concerns for applicability, limiting the inferences that can be drawn from them. There was insufficient homogenous data for a meta-analysis. Conclusions: Machine learning can be applied to predict the risk of rupture for intracranial aneurysms. However, the evidence does not comprehensively demonstrate superiority to existing practice, limiting its role as a clinical adjunct. Further prospective multicentre studies of recent machine learning tools are needed to prove clinical validation before they are implemented in the clinic.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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