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arXiv 2409.04412stat.MEq-fin.MFq-fin.RM
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鲁棒可 elicitable 函数

Robust Elicitable Functionals

University of Toronto(多伦多大学)

Kathleen E. Miao, Silvana M. Pesenti

AI总结:

本文提出鲁棒可 elicitable 函数,通过Kullback-Leibler散度量化基分布的潜在偏差,保证在不确定性区域边界有唯一解,并应用于再保险和鲁棒回归问题。

摘要:

Elicitable functionals 和 (strictly) consistent scoring functions 因其在确定唯一最优预测中的实用性而受到关注,因此能够有效回测预测。然而,在实践中,假设分布正确指定过于强,难以可靠维持。为此,本文在 elicitable functionals 框架中引入统计鲁棒性,即鲁棒函数能处理基分布的小偏差。具体而言,本文通过Kullback-Leibler散度量化基分布的潜在偏差,证明鲁棒 elicitable 函数在不确定性区域边界有唯一解,并提供存在性和唯一性的条件。由于每个 elicitable 函数有无限多个评分函数,本文提出 b-齐次严格一致评分函数类,使鲁棒函数保持良好的统计性质。并通过再保险和鲁棒回归问题示例展示其应用。

英文摘要:

Elicitable functionals and (strictly) consistent scoring functions are of interest due to their utility of determining (uniquely) optimal forecasts, and thus the ability to effectively backtest predictions. However, in practice, assuming that a distribution is correctly specified is too strong a belief to reliably hold. To remediate this, we incorporate a notion of statistical robustness into the framework of elicitable functionals, meaning that our robust functional accounts for "small" misspecifications of a baseline distribution. Specifically, we propose a robustified version of elicitable functionals by using the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify potential misspecifications from a baseline distribution. We show that the robust elicitable functionals admit unique solutions lying at the boundary of the uncertainty region, and provide conditions for existence and uniqueness. Since every elicitable functional possesses infinitely many scoring functions, we propose the class of b-homogeneous strictly consistent scoring functions, for which the robust functionals maintain desirable statistical properties. We show the applicability of the robust elicitable functional in several examples: in a reinsurance setting and in robust regression problems.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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