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arXiv 2409.00892math.OC
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多阶段鲁棒平均随机谱风险优化

Multistage Robust Average Randomized Spectral Risk Optimization

Qiong Wu, Huifu Xu, Harry Zheng

AI总结:

本文针对决策者风险偏好状态依赖且不一致的多阶段优化问题,提出多阶段平均随机谱风险优化模型及其分布鲁棒版本,并用随机对偶动态规划求解,通过资产配置实验验证其有效性。

摘要:

本文重新审视了 Philpott 等人提出的多阶段谱风险最小化模型以及 Guigues 和 Römisch 提出的模型,但引入了一些新的关注点。我们考虑这样一种情形:决策者的风险偏好可能是状态依赖的,甚至在某些状态下是不一致的,因此不存在单一确定的谱风险测度能够用于表示决策者在每个阶段的偏好。我们采用最近引入的平均随机谱风险测度(ARSRM)来描述决策者在每个阶段的整体风险偏好。为了求解由此产生的多阶段 ARSRM(MARSRM)问题,我们应用了众所周知的随机对偶动态规划(SDDP)方法,该方法以迭代方式生成一系列下界和上界。在一些温和条件下,我们证明了可以在有限次迭代内找到最优解。MARSRM 模型推广了单阶段 ARSRM,并简化了现有多阶段状态依赖偏好鲁棒模型,同时还涵盖了主流的多阶段风险中性和风险规避优化模型。在缺乏决策者随机偏好概率分布完整信息的情况下,我们提出使用分布鲁棒 ARSRM(DR-ARSRM)来描述决策者在每个阶段的偏好。我们详细给出了求解 MARSRM 和 DR-MARSRM 的计算方案。最后,我们通过将 MARSRM 和 DR-MARSRM 应用于一个带交易成本的资产配置问题来检验其性能,并将它们与标准的风险中性和风险规避多阶段线性随机规划(MLSP)模型进行比较。

英文摘要:

In this paper, we revisit the multistage spectral risk minimization models proposed by Philpott et al.~\cite{PdF13} and Guigues and Römisch \cite{GuR12} but with some new focuses. We consider a situation where the decision maker's (DM's) risk preferences may be state-dependent or even inconsistent at some states, and consequently there is not a single deterministic spectral risk measure (SRM) which can be used to represent the DM's preferences at each stage. We adopt the recently introduced average randomized SRM (ARSRM) (in \cite{li2022randomization}) to describe the DM's overall risk preference at each stage. To solve the resulting multistage ARSRM (MARSRM) problem, we apply the well-known stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) method which generates a sequence of lower and upper bounds in an iterative manner. Under some moderate conditions, we prove that the optimal solution can be found in a finite number of iterations. The MARSRM model generalizes the one-stage ARSRM and simplifies the existing multistage state-dependent preference robust model \cite{liu2021multistage}, while also encompassing the mainstream multistage risk-neutral and risk-averse optimization models \cite{GuR12,PdF13}. In the absence of complete information on the probability distribution of the DM's random preferences, we propose to use distributionally robust ARSRM (DR-ARSRM) to describe the DM's preferences at each stage. We detail computational schemes for solving both MARSRM and DR-MARSRM. Finally, we examine the performance of MARSRM and DR-MARSRM by applying them to an asset allocation problem with transaction costs and compare them with standard risk neutral and risk averse multistage linear stochastic programming (MLSP) models.

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