The aim of this paper is to show that in some cases risk averse multistage stochastic programming problems can be reformulated in a form of risk neutral setting. This is achieved by a change of the reference probability measure making ``bad" (extreme) scenarios more frequent. As a numerical example we demonstrate advantages of such change-of-measure approach applied to the Brazilian Interconnected Power System operation planning problem.
This paper addresses risk awareness of stochastic optimization problems. Nested risk measures appear naturally in this context, as they allow beneficial reformulations for algorithmic treatments. The reformulations presented extend usual Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations in dynamic optimization by involving risk awareness in the problem formulation. Nested risk measures are built on risk measures, which originate by conditioning on the history of a stochastic process. We derive martingale properties of these risk measures and use them to prove continuity. It is demonstrated that stochastic opt…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to be minimized. This framework is axiomatically justified in terms of time-consistency of risk preferences, is amenable to dynamic optimization, and is unifying in the sense that it captures a full range of risk assessments from risk-neutral to worst case. Within this framework, we propose and analyze an online risk-averse MPC algorithm that is provably stabil…
The vast majority of the literature on stochastic semidefinite programs (stochastic SDPs) with recourse is concerned with risk-neutral models. In this paper, we introduce mean-risk models for stochastic SDPs and study structural properties as convexity and (Lipschitz) continuity. Special emphasis is placed on stability with respect to changes of the underlying probability distribution. Perturbations of the true distribution may arise from incomplete information or working with (finite discrete) approximations for the sake of computational efficiency. We discuss extended formulations for stocha…
We introduce adaptive sampling methods for stochastic programs with deterministic constraints. First, we propose and analyze a variant of the stochastic projected gradient method where the sample size used to approximate the reduced gradient is determined on-the-fly and updated adaptively. This method is applicable to a broad class of expectation-based risk measures and leads to a significant reduction in the individual gradient evaluations used to estimate the objective function gradient. Numerical experiments with expected risk minimization and conditional value-at-risk minimization support …
We propose a distributionally robust return-risk model for Markov decision processes (MDPs) under risk and reward ambiguity. The proposed model optimizes the weighted average of mean and percentile performances, and it covers the distributionally robust MDPs and the distributionally robust chance-constrained MDPs (both under reward ambiguity) as special cases. By considering that the unknown reward distribution lies in a Wasserstein ambiguity set, we derive the tractable reformulation for our model. In particular, we show that that the return-risk model can also account for risk from uncertain…
We consider two market designs for a network of prosumers, trading energy: (i) a centralized design which acts as a benchmark, and (ii) a peer-to-peer market design. High renewable energy penetration requires that the energy market design properly handles uncertainty. To that purpose, we consider risk neutral models for market designs (i), (ii), and their risk-averse interpretations in which prosumers are endowed with coherent risk measures reflecting heterogeneity in their risk attitudes. We characterize analytically risk-neutral and risk-averse equilibrium in terms of existence and uniquenes…
This paper studies the communication complexity of convex risk-averse optimization over a network. The problem generalizes the well-studied risk-neutral finite-sum distributed optimization problem and its importance stems from the need to handle risk in an uncertain environment. For algorithms in the literature, there exists a gap in communication complexities for solving risk-averse and risk-neutral problems. We propose two distributed algorithms, namely the distributed risk averse optimization (DRAO) method and the distributed risk averse optimization with sliding (DRAO-S) method, to close t…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is widely used to account for the preferences of a risk-averse agent in the extreme loss scenarios. To study the effectiveness of randomization in interdiction games with an interdictor that is both risk and ambiguity averse, we introduce a distributionally robust network interdiction game where the interdictor randomizes over the feasible interdiction plans in order to minimize the worst-case CVaR of the flow with respect to both the unknown distribution of the capacity of the arcs and his mixed strategy over interdicted arcs. The flow player, on the contrary,…
We consider a continuous time Principal-Agent model on a finite time horizon, where we look for the existence of an optimal contract both parties agreed on. Contrary to the main stream, where the principal is modelled as risk-neutral, we assume that both the principal and the agent have exponential utility, and are risk averse with same risk awareness level. Moreover, the agent's quality is unknown and modelled as a filtering term in the problem, which is revealed as time passes by. The principal can not observe the agent's real action, but can only recommend action levels to the agent. Hence,…
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) aims to maximize the expected total reward, while the risk of uncertain outcomes needs to be controlled to ensure reliable performance in a risk-averse setting. In this paper, we consider the problem of maximizing dynamic risk of a sequence of rewards in infinite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We adapt the Expected Conditional Risk Measures (ECRMs) to the infinite-horizon risk-averse MDP and prove its time consistency. Using a convex combination of expectation and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a special one-step conditional risk measure,…
This paper considers a statistical signal processing problem involving agent based models of financial markets which at a micro-level are driven by socially aware and risk- averse trading agents. These agents trade (buy or sell) stocks by exploiting information about the decisions of previous agents (social learning) via an order book in addition to a private (noisy) signal they receive on the value of the stock. We are interested in the following: (1) Modelling the dynamics of these risk averse agents, (2) Sequential detection of a market shock based on the behaviour of these agents. Structur…
The real challenge in drone-logistics is to develop an economically-feasible Unmanned Aerial Mobility Network (UAMN). In this paper, we propose an integrated airport location (strategic decision) and routes planning (operational decision) optimization framework to minimize the total cost of the network, while guaranteeing flow constraints, capacity constraints, and electricity constraints. To facility expensive long-term infrastructure planning facing demand uncertainty, we develop a data-driven risk-averse two-stage stochastic optimization model based on the Wasserstein distance. We develop a…
A market with asymmetric information can be viewed as a repeated exchange game between the informed sector and the uninformed one. In a market with risk-neutral agents, De Meyer [2010] proves that the price process should be a particular kind of Brownian martingale called CMMV. This type of dynamics is due to the strategic use of their private information by the informed agents. In the current paper, we consider the more realistic case where agents on the market are risk-averse. This case is much more complex to analyze as it leads to a non-zero-sum game. Our main result is that the price proc…
College of Engineering, Cornell University（康奈尔大学工程学院）
This paper investigates the problem of designing data-driven stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) for linear time-invariant systems under additive stochastic disturbance, whose probability distribution is unknown but can be partially inferred from data. We propose a novel online learning based risk-averse stochastic MPC framework in which Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraints on system states are required to hold for a family of distributions called an ambiguity set. The ambiguity set is constructed from disturbance data by leveraging a Dirichlet process mixture model that is self-…
We develop a new approach to solving classification problems, which is bases on the theory of coherent measures of risk and risk sharing ideas. The proposed approach aims at designing a risk-averse classifier. The new approach allows for associating distinct risk functional to each classes. The risk may be measured by different (non-linear in probability) measures, We analyze the structure of the new classifier design problem and establish its theoretical relation to known risk-neutral design problems. In particular, we show that the risk-sharing classification problem is equivalent to an impl…
On the Global Convergence of Risk-Averse Natural Policy Gradient Methods with Expected Conditional Risk Measures
Department of Integrated Systems Engineering, The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学整合系统工程系）；Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan（密歇根大学电气工程与计算机科学系）
We extend the single-stage stellarator coil design approach for quasi-symmetry on axis from [Giuliani et al, 2020] to additionally take into account coil manufacturing errors. By modeling coil errors independently from the coil discretization, we have the flexibility to consider realistic forms of coil errors. The corresponding stochastic optimization problems are formulated using a risk-neutral approach and risk-averse approaches. We present an efficient, gradient-based descent algorithm which relies on analytical derivatives to solve these problems. In a comprehensive numerical study, we com…
We consider the stochastic shortest path planning problem in MDPs, i.e., the problem of designing policies that ensure reaching a goal state from a given initial state with minimum accrued cost. In order to account for rare but important realizations of the system, we consider a nested dynamic coherent risk total cost functional rather than the conventional risk-neutral total expected cost. Under some assumptions, we show that optimal, stationary, Markovian policies exist and can be found via a special Bellman's equation. We propose a computational technique based on difference convex programs…
Northumbria University（诺森比亚大学）；University of Macedonia（马其顿大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Designing tax policies that are effective in curbing tax evasion and maximize state revenues requires a rigorous understanding of taxpayer behavior. This work explores the problem of determining the strategy a self-interested, risk-averse tax entity is expected to follow, as it "navigates" - in the context of a Markov Decision Process - a government-controlled tax environment that includes random audits, penalties and occasional tax amnesties. Although simplified versions of this problem have been previously explored, the mere assumption of risk-aversion (as opposed to risk-neutrality) raises …
Existing electricity market designs assume risk neutrality and lack risk-hedging instruments, which leads to suboptimal market outcomes and reduces the overall market efficiency. This paper enables risk-trading in the chance-constrained stochastic electricity market by introducing Arrow-Debreu Securities (ADS) and derives a risk-averse market-clearing model with risk trading. To enable risk trading, the probability space of underlying uncertainty is discretized in a finite number of outcomes, which makes it possible to design practical risk contracts and to produce energy, balancing reserve an…
In this paper we consider an ambiguity-averse multi-stage network game between a user and an attacker. The arc costs are assumed to be random variables that satisfy prescribed first-order moment constraints for some subsets of arcs and individual probability constraints for some particular arcs. The user aims at minimizing its cumulative expected loss by traversing between two fixed nodes in the network, while the attacker's objective is to maximize the user's expected loss by selecting a distribution of arc costs from the family of admissible distributions. In contrast to most of the related …
We present a heuristic policy and performance bound for risk-sensitive convex stochastic control that generalizes linear-exponential-quadratic regulator (LEQR) theory. Our heuristic policy extends standard, risk-neutral model predictive control (MPC); however, instead of ignoring uncertain noise terms, our policy assumes these noise terms turns out either favorably or unfavorably, depending on a risk aversion parameter. In the risk-seeking case, this modified planning problem is convex. In the risk-averse case, it requires minimizing a difference of convex functions, which is done (approximate…
Over the last few decades, electricity markets around the world have adopted multi-settlement structures, allowing for balancing of supply and demand as more accurate forecast information becomes available. Given increasing uncertainty due to adoption of renewables, more recent market design work has focused on optimization of expectation of some quantity, e.g. social welfare. However, social planners and policy makers are often risk averse, so that such risk neutral formulations do not adequately reflect prevailing attitudes towards risk, nor explain the decisions that follow. Hence we incorp…
This paper studies flexible multi-facility capacity expansion with risk aversion. In this setting, the decision maker can periodically expand the capacity of facilities given observations of uncertain demand. We model this situation as a multi-stage stochastic programming problem. We express risk aversion in this problem through conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), and we formulate a mean-CVaR objective. To solve the multi-stage problem, we optimize over decision rules. In particular, we approximate the full policy space of the problem with a tractable family of if-then policies. Subsequently, a …
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院 H. 米尔顿·斯图尔特工业与系统工程学）；School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University（普渡大学工业工程学院）
Optimism as Risk-Seeking in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Laboratory for Information & Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（信息与决策系统实验室，麻省理工学院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
