arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2408.13293cs.LGcs.AI
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用于准确可靠交通预测的因果感知时空多图卷积网络

Causally-Aware Spatio-Temporal Multi-Graph Convolution Network for Accurate and Reliable Traffic Prediction

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University(香港理工大学);Tongji University(同济大学);Sichuan University(四川大学);NEOMA Business School(诺欧商学院)

Pingping Dong, Xiao-Lin Wang, Indranil Bose, Kam K. H. Ng, Xiaoning Zhang, Xiaoge Zhang

AI总结:

本文提出端到端交通预测框架,结合动态因果结构学习、因果感知时空多图卷积网络(CASTMGCN)与共形预测,提升预测精度并保证不确定性量化的统计有效性。

摘要:

准确且可靠的预测对广泛的应用具有深远意义。本研究聚焦于时空学习问题的一个实例——交通预测,展示了一个为做出准确可靠预测而开发的先进深度学习模型。尽管交通预测取得了显著进展,但有限的研究同时纳入显式和隐式交通模式以提升预测性能。同时,交通状态的变异性需要以统计上有原则的方式量化模型预测的不确定性;然而,现有研究在置信区间反映其包含真实值的实际可能性方面,未提供可证明的统计有效性保证。本文提出一个端到端的交通预测框架,利用三个主要组件生成准确可靠的交通预测:动态因果结构学习,用于从海量交通数据中发现隐式交通模式;因果感知时空多图卷积网络(CASTMGCN),用于学习时空依赖关系;以及共形预测,用于不确定性量化。CASTMGCN融合了表征交通网络不同重要方面的多个图,以及一个捕捉外生因素对路网影响的辅助图。在此基础上,进一步开发了一种针对时空数据定制的共形预测方法,用于量化不同预测时间跨度下节点级交通预测的不确定性。在两个真实交通数据集上的实验结果表明,所提方法在预测精度上优于多个最先进模型;此外,在严格满足覆盖统计有效性的同时,它生成了比其他方法更高效的预测区间。

英文摘要:

Accurate and reliable prediction has profound implications to a wide range of applications. In this study, we focus on an instance of spatio-temporal learning problem--traffic prediction--to demonstrate an advanced deep learning model developed for making accurate and reliable forecast. Despite the significant progress in traffic prediction, limited studies have incorporated both explicit and implicit traffic patterns simultaneously to improve prediction performance. Meanwhile, the variability nature of traffic states necessitates quantifying the uncertainty of model predictions in a statistically principled way; however, extant studies offer no provable guarantee on the statistical validity of confidence intervals in reflecting its actual likelihood of containing the ground truth. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end traffic prediction framework that leverages three primary components to generate accurate and reliable traffic predictions: dynamic causal structure learning for discovering implicit traffic patterns from massive traffic data, causally-aware spatio-temporal multi-graph convolution network (CASTMGCN) for learning spatio-temporal dependencies, and conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification. CASTMGCN fuses several graphs that characterize different important aspects of traffic networks and an auxiliary graph that captures the effect of exogenous factors on the road network. On this basis, a conformal prediction approach tailored to spatio-temporal data is further developed for quantifying the uncertainty in node-wise traffic predictions over varying prediction horizons. Experimental results on two real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms several state-of-the-art models in prediction accuracy; moreover, it generates more efficient prediction regions than other methods while strictly satisfying the statistical validity in coverage.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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