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arXiv 2405.09596cs.LGcs.AIstat.ME
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基于H3索引与因果语言建模(CLM)的海事轨迹预测增强方法

Enhancing Maritime Trajectory Forecasting via H3 Index and Causal Language Modelling (CLM)

PRISME Laboratory(PRISME实验室);SAS Impact;University of Orléans(奥尔良大学)

Nicolas Drapier, Aladine Chetouani, Aurélien Chateigner

AI总结:

本研究将船舶轨迹预测转化为自然语言处理问题,通过H3索引转换AIS坐标为单元格标识,结合因果语言建模实现仅用GNSS位置、30分钟上下文即可精准预测未来8小时的全球船舶轨迹,效果优于传统卡尔曼滤波方法。

摘要:

船舶轨迹预测是人工智能领域一个日益增长的研究方向。传统方法依赖LSTM、GRU网络甚至Transformer架构来进行时空序列预测。本研究提出了一种仅使用GNSS位置预测这些轨迹的可行替代方案,将该时空问题视为自然语言处理问题。AIS消息的纬度/经度坐标通过H3索引转换为单元格标识符。得益于伪八进制表示,语言模型更容易学习H3索引的空间层级结构。研究将该方法与海事领域广泛使用的经典卡尔曼滤波器进行对比,并引入Fréchet距离作为主要评估指标。研究表明,仅使用GNSS位置,无需依赖速度、航向或外部条件等任何额外信息(这与许多传统方法不同),即可在30分钟上下文的支持下,相当精确地预测未来长达8小时的船舶轨迹。研究证实该替代方案的效果足以支撑全球范围内的轨迹预测。

英文摘要:

The prediction of ship trajectories is a growing field of study in artificial intelligence. Traditional methods rely on the use of LSTM, GRU networks, and even Transformer architectures for the prediction of spatio-temporal series. This study proposes a viable alternative for predicting these trajectories using only GNSS positions. It considers this spatio-temporal problem as a natural language processing problem. The latitude/longitude coordinates of AIS messages are transformed into cell identifiers using the H3 index. Thanks to the pseudo-octal representation, it becomes easier for language models to learn the spatial hierarchy of the H3 index. The method is compared with a classical Kalman filter, widely used in the maritime domain, and introduces the Fréchet distance as the main evaluation metric. We show that it is possible to predict ship trajectories quite precisely up to 8 hours ahead with 30 minutes of context, using solely GNSS positions, without relying on any additional information such as speed, course, or external conditions - unlike many traditional methods. We demonstrate that this alternative works well enough to predict trajectories worldwide.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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