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arXiv 2410.19782cs.CVcs.LG
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基于卫星雷达影像的格陵兰海沟海冰条件数据驱动不确定性感知预报

Data-Driven Uncertainty-Aware Forecasting of Sea Ice Conditions in the Gulf of Ob Based on Satellite Radar Imagery

Applied AI Center, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russia(斯克尔科沃科学与技术研究所应用人工智能中心);Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia(莫斯科物理技术学院);Autonomous Non-Profit Organization Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (AIRI), Moscow, Russia(自主非营利组织人工智能研究 institute(AIRI))

Stefan Maria Ailuro, Anna Nedorubova, Timofey Grigoryev, Evgeny Burnaev, Vladimir Vanovskiy

AI总结:

本文提出了一种基于卫星雷达影像的格陵兰海沟海冰条件数据驱动不确定性感知预报方法,通过整合视频预测模型与领域特定数据处理技术,提升预测精度和鲁棒性,以应对北极环境的不确定性挑战。

摘要:

由于北极海域活动的增加以及显著的海冰消融,对格陵兰海沟的高可靠性短期海冰预报需求日益增加,以确保海上安全和运营效率。在本工作中,我们提出了一种新的数据驱动方法,利用哨兵-1卫星雷达影像序列、天气观测和GLORYS预报数据,对格陵兰海沟的海冰状况进行预测。我们的方法整合了先进的视频预测模型,这些模型最初是为视觉任务开发的,并结合了针对北极海冰动态独特挑战的领域特定数据预处理和增强技术。我们的方法核心是使用不确定性量化来评估预测的可靠性,确保在安全关键应用中的稳健决策。此外,我们提出了一种基于置信度的模型混合机制,以提高预测精度和模型鲁棒性,这对于在动荡的北极环境中实现可靠的操作至关重要。我们的结果表明,与基线方法相比,有显著的改进,强调了不确定性量化和专门数据处理对于有效和安全的操作以及可靠预测的重要性。

英文摘要:

The increase in Arctic marine activity due to rapid warming and significant sea ice loss necessitates highly reliable, short-term sea ice forecasts to ensure maritime safety and operational efficiency. In this work, we present a novel data-driven approach for sea ice condition forecasting in the Gulf of Ob, leveraging sequences of radar images from Sentinel-1, weather observations, and GLORYS forecasts. Our approach integrates advanced video prediction models, originally developed for vision tasks, with domain-specific data preprocessing and augmentation techniques tailored to the unique challenges of Arctic sea ice dynamics. Central to our methodology is the use of uncertainty quantification to assess the reliability of predictions, ensuring robust decision-making in safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we propose a confidence-based model mixture mechanism that enhances forecast accuracy and model robustness, crucial for reliable operations in volatile Arctic environments. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements over baseline approaches, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification and specialized data handling for effective and safe operations and reliable forecasting.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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