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arXiv 2405.08052econ.GNq-fin.EC
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贸易开放度、关税与经济增长:来自二十国集团成员国的实证研究

Trade Openness, Tariffs and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study from Countries of G-20

S M Toufiqul Huq Sowrov

AI总结:

本文基于11个G20成员国面板数据,采用OLS、固定效应及1年滞后回归处理内生性,实证发现贸易开放度与经济增长显著正相关、滞后模型中关税与增长显著负相关,建议各国实施差异化贸易开放与关税放宽政策。

摘要:

国际贸易一直是经济发展与增长相关讨论的核心议题,贸易开放度的定义、范围及其影响也已得到大量研究。传统观点及多数实证研究均认为,关税是经济增长的负面影响因素。本文实证检验了以贸易额占GDP比重衡量的贸易开放度、进口关税率与经济增长之间的关系。研究选取11个二十国集团成员国的面板数据集,采用OLS(普通最小二乘法)和面板数据固定效应回归开展回归分析,为处理贸易开放度变量的内生性问题,使用了1年期滞后回归技术。结果显示,贸易开放度与经济增长呈显著正相关;在滞后模型中,关税与经济增长呈显著负相关,且结果稳健且显著。政策建议提出,各国应实施符合自身国情的贸易开放与关税放宽政策。

英文摘要:

International trade has been in the forefront of economic development and growth debates. Trade openness, its definition, scope, and impacts have also been studied numerously. Tariff has been dubbed as negative influencer of economic growth as per conventional wisdom and most empirical studies. This paper empirically examines relationships among trade openness as trade share to GDP, import tariff rate and economic growth. Panel dataset of 11 G-20 member countries were selected for the study. Results found a positively significant correlation between trade openness and economic growth. Tariff has negatively significant correlation with economic growth in lagged model. OLS and panel data fixed-effects regression were employed to carry out the regression analysis. To deal with endogeneity in trade openness variable, a 1-year lag regression technique was conducted. Results are robust and significant. Policy recommendation suggests country specific trade opening and tariff relaxation.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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