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arXiv 2404.14701cs.LG
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用于选择分析的深度神经网络:通过梯度正则化增强行为规律性

Deep neural networks for choice analysis: Enhancing behavioral regularity with gradient regularization

Cornell University(康奈尔大学);École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne(洛桑联邦理工学院);University of Leeds(利兹大学);University of California, Berkeley(加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校);University of Florida(佛罗里达大学)

Siqi Feng, Rui Yao, Stephane Hess, Ricardo A. Daziano, Timothy Brathwaite, Joan Walker, Shenhao Wang

AI总结:

提出强/弱行为规律性指标及含六种梯度正则化项的约束优化框架,有效提升了DNN在出行选择分析中的行为规律性与泛化能力,且保持了较高的预测精度。

摘要:

深度神经网络(DNN)经常表现出行为不规律的模式,这极大地限制了其在出行行为建模中的实际潜力和理论有效性。本研究提出了强行为规律性和弱行为规律性作为评估个体需求函数单调性(即“需求法则”)的新指标,并进一步设计了一个包含六种梯度正则化项的约束优化框架,以增强DNN的行为规律性。所提出的框架被应用于Chicago和London的出行调查数据,以检验在大样本与小样本场景以及领域内与领域外泛化之间预测能力和行为规律性的权衡。结果表明,与具有强行为基础的模型(如多项Logit)不同,基准DNN无法保证行为规律性。然而,梯度正则化(GR)在保持其相对较高预测能力的同时,将DNN的行为规律性提高了约6个百分点(pp)。在小样本场景中,GR比在大样本场景中更有效,同时将行为规律性提高了约20 pp,对数似然提高了约1.7%。与DNN的领域内泛化相比,GR在领域外泛化中更有效:它将表现不佳的基准DNN的行为规律性大幅提高了约65 pp,这表明行为正则化对于增强模型可迁移性和预测应用至关重要。此外,所提出的框架适用于其他基于神经网络的选择模型,如TasteNets。未来的研究可以将行为规律性作为指标,与对数似然一起用于评估出行需求模型,并探索其他方法在采用复杂机器学习模型时进一步增强行为规律性。

英文摘要:

Deep neural networks (DNNs) frequently present behaviorally irregular patterns, significantly limiting their practical potentials and theoretical validity in travel behavior modeling. This study proposes strong and weak behavioral regularities as novel metrics to evaluate the monotonicity of individual demand functions (known as the "law of demand"), and further designs a constrained optimization framework with six gradient regularizers to enhance DNNs' behavioral regularity. The proposed framework is applied to travel survey data from Chicago and London to examine the trade-off between predictive power and behavioral regularity for large vs. small sample scenarios and in-domain vs. out-of-domain generalizations. The results demonstrate that, unlike models with strong behavioral foundations such as the multinomial logit, the benchmark DNNs cannot guarantee behavioral regularity. However, gradient regularization (GR) increases DNNs' behavioral regularity by around 6 percentage points (pp) while retaining their relatively high predictive power. In the small sample scenario, GR is more effective than in the large sample scenario, simultaneously improving behavioral regularity by about 20 pp and log-likelihood by around 1.7%. Comparing with the in-domain generalization of DNNs, GR works more effectively in out-of-domain generalization: it drastically improves the behavioral regularity of poorly performing benchmark DNNs by around 65 pp, indicating the criticality of behavioral regularization for enhancing model transferability and application in forecasting. Moreover, the proposed framework is applicable to other NN-based choice models such as TasteNets. Future studies could use behavioral regularity as a metric along with log-likelihood in evaluating travel demand models, and investigate other methods to further enhance behavioral regularity when adopting complex machine learning models.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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