As a key component to intuitive cognition and reasoning solutions in human intelligence, causal knowledge provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' interpretability towards decision-making by helping reduce the searching space. However, there is still a considerable gap in discovering and incorporating causality into RL, which hinders the rapid development of causal RL. In this paper, we consider explicitly modeling the generation process of states with the causal graphical model, based on which we augment the policy. We formulate the causal structure updating into the RL interaction process with active intervention learning of the environment. To optimize the derived objective, we propose a framework with theoretical performance guarantees that alternates between two steps: using interventions for causal structure learning during exploration and using the learned causal structure for policy guidance during exploitation. Due to the lack of public benchmarks that allow direct intervention in the state space, we design the root cause localization task in our simulated fault alarm environment and then empirically show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method against state-of-the-art baselines. Theoretical analysis shows that our performance improvement attributes to the virtuous cycle of causal-guided policy learning and causal structure learning, which aligns with our experimental results. Codes are available at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/FaultAlarm_RL.
Policies trained via reinforcement learning (RL) are often very complex even for simple tasks. In an episode with $n$ time steps, a policy will make $n$ decisions on actions to take, many of which may appear non-intuitive to the observer. Moreover, it is not clear which of these decisions directly contribute towards achieving the reward and how significant is their contribution. Given a trained policy, we propose a black-box method based on counterfactual reasoning that estimates the causal effect that these decisions have on reward attainment and ranks the decisions according to this estimate…
Contextual bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms have been successfully used in various interactive learning systems such as online advertising, recommender systems, and dynamic pricing. However, they have yet to be widely adopted in high-stakes application domains, such as healthcare. One reason may be that existing approaches assume that the underlying mechanisms are static in the sense that they do not change over different environments. In many real-world systems, however, the mechanisms are subject to shifts across environments which may invalidate the static environment assumption…
University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）；Lund University（隆德大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Uppsala University（乌普萨拉大学）；Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学）；RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）
Questions in causality, control, and reinforcement learning go beyond the classical machine learning task of prediction under i.i.d. observations. Instead, these fields consider the problem of learning how to actively perturb a system to achieve a certain effect on a response variable. Arguably, they have complementary views on the problem: In control, one usually aims to first identify the system by excitation strategies to then apply model-based design techniques to control the system. In (non-model-based) reinforcement learning, one directly optimizes a reward. In causality, one focus is on…
WPI（伍斯特理工学院）；College of William & Mary（威廉与玛丽学院）；JD Finance（京东金融）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）；Lenovo Group Limited（联想集团有限公司）
Many real-world human behaviors can be characterized as a sequential decision making processes, such as urban travelers choices of transport modes and routes (Wu et al. 2017). Differing from choices controlled by machines, which in general follows perfect rationality to adopt the policy with the highest reward, studies have revealed that human agents make sub-optimal decisions under bounded rationality (Tao, Rohde, and Corcoran 2014). Such behaviors can be modeled using maximum causal entropy (MCE) principle (Ziebart 2010). In this paper, we define and investigate a general reward trans-format…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）；Microsoft Research Asia（微软亚洲研究院）
Behavioral cloning has proven to be effective for learning sequential decision-making policies from expert demonstrations. However, behavioral cloning often suffers from the causal confusion problem where a policy relies on the noticeable effect of expert actions due to the strong correlation but not the cause we desire. This paper presents Object-aware REgularizatiOn (OREO), a simple technique that regularizes an imitation policy in an object-aware manner. Our main idea is to encourage a policy to uniformly attend to all semantic objects, in order to prevent the policy from exploiting nuisanc…
When decision-makers can directly intervene, policy evaluation algorithms give valid causal estimates. In off-policy evaluation (OPE), there may exist unobserved variables that both impact the dynamics and are used by the unknown behavior policy. These "confounders" will introduce spurious correlations and naive estimates for a new policy will be biased. We develop worst-case bounds to assess sensitivity to these unobserved confounders in finite horizons when confounders are drawn iid each period. We demonstrate that a model-based approach with robust MDPs gives sharper lower bounds by exploit…
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University（纽约大学库朗数学科学研究所）；New York University（纽约大学）
Reinforcement learning algorithms have had tremendous successes in online learning settings. However, these successes have relied on low-stakes interactions between the algorithmic agent and its environment. In many settings where RL could be of use, such as health care and autonomous driving, the mistakes made by most online RL algorithms during early training come with unacceptable costs. These settings require developing reinforcement learning algorithms that can operate in the so-called batch setting, where the algorithms must learn from set of data that is fixed, finite, and generated fro…
The ability to adapt to changes in environmental contingencies is an important challenge in reinforcement learning. Indeed, transferring previously acquired knowledge to environments with unseen structural properties can greatly enhance the flexibility and efficiency by which novel optimal policies may be constructed. In this work, we study the problem of transfer learning under changes in the environment dynamics. In this study, we apply causal reasoning in the offline reinforcement learning setting to transfer a learned policy to new environments. Specifically, we use the Decision Transforme…
The recent success of reinforcement learning's (RL) in solving complex tasks is most often attributed to its capacity to explore and exploit an environment where it has been trained. Sample efficiency is usually not an issue since cheap simulators are available to sample data on-policy. On the other hand, task oriented dialogues are usually learnt from offline data collected using human demonstrations. Collecting diverse demonstrations and annotating them is expensive. Unfortunately, use of RL methods trained on off-policy data are prone to issues of bias and generalization, which are further …
Max Planck Institute for Software Systems (MPI-SWS)（马克斯·普朗克软件系统研究所）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）
We study a security threat to reinforcement learning where an attacker poisons the learning environment to force the agent into executing a target policy chosen by the attacker. As a victim, we consider RL agents whose objective is to find a policy that maximizes reward in infinite-horizon problem settings. The attacker can manipulate the rewards and the transition dynamics in the learning environment at training-time, and is interested in doing so in a stealthy manner. We propose an optimization framework for finding an optimal stealthy attack for different measures of attack cost. We provide…
Most prior approaches to offline reinforcement learning (RL) have taken an iterative actor-critic approach involving off-policy evaluation. In this paper we show that simply doing one step of constrained/regularized policy improvement using an on-policy Q estimate of the behavior policy performs surprisingly well. This one-step algorithm beats the previously reported results of iterative algorithms on a large portion of the D4RL benchmark. The one-step baseline achieves this strong performance while being notably simpler and more robust to hyperparameters than previously proposed iterative alg…
University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；U.S. Army Research Laboratory（美国陆军研究实验室）；Amazon（亚马逊）
We focus on parameterized policy search for reinforcement learning over continuous action spaces. Typically, one assumes the score function associated with a policy is bounded, which fails to hold even for Gaussian policies. To properly address this issue, one must introduce an exploration tolerance parameter to quantify the region in which it is bounded. Doing so incurs a persistent bias that appears in the attenuation rate of the expected policy gradient norm, which is inversely proportional to the radius of the action space. To mitigate this hidden bias, heavy-tailed policy parameterization…
Causality Meets Locality: Provably Generalizable and Scalable Policy Learning for Networked Systems
King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms promise to be applicable in settings where only a fixed data-set (batch) of environment interactions is available and no new experience can be acquired. This property makes these algorithms appealing for real world problems such as robot control. In practice, however, standard off-policy algorithms fail in the batch setting for continuous control. In this paper, we propose a simple solution to this problem. It admits the use of data generated by arbitrary behavior policies and uses a learned prior -- the advantage-weighted behavior model (ABM) -- to…
Campbell-Goodhart's law relates to the causal inference error whereby decision-making agents aim to influence variables which are correlated to their goal objective but do not reliably cause it. This is a well known error in Economics and Political Science but not widely labelled in Artificial Intelligence research. Through a simple example, we show how off-the-shelf deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are not necessarily immune to this cognitive error. The off-policy learning method is tricked, whilst the on-policy method is not. The practical implication is that naive application of …
Max Planck Institute for Software Systems (MPI-SWS)（马克斯·普朗克软件系统研究所）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）
We study a security threat to reinforcement learning where an attacker poisons the learning environment to force the agent into executing a target policy chosen by the attacker. As a victim, we consider RL agents whose objective is to find a policy that maximizes average reward in undiscounted infinite-horizon problem settings. The attacker can manipulate the rewards or the transition dynamics in the learning environment at training-time and is interested in doing so in a stealthy manner. We propose an optimization framework for finding an \emph{optimal stealthy attack} for different measures …
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）
Excessively changing policies in many real world scenarios is difficult, unethical, or expensive. After all, doctor guidelines, tax codes, and price lists can only be reprinted so often. We may thus want to only change a policy when it is probable that the change is beneficial. In cases that a policy is a threshold on contextual variables we can estimate treatment effects for populations lying at the threshold. This allows for a schedule of incremental policy updates that let us optimize a policy while making few detrimental changes. Using this idea, and the theory of linear contextual bandits…
This paper studies an instance of the multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, specifically where several causal MABs operate chronologically in the same dynamical system. Practically the reward distribution of each bandit is governed by the same non-trivial dependence structure, which is a dynamic causal model. Dynamic because we allow for each causal MAB to depend on the preceding MAB and in doing so are able to transfer information between agents. Our contribution, the Chronological Causal Bandit (CCB), is useful in discrete decision-making settings where the causal effects are changing across tim…
Center for Smart Health, University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校智能健康中心）
A data science task can be deemed as making sense of the data or testing a hypothesis about it. The conclusions inferred from data can greatly guide us to make informative decisions. Big data has enabled us to carry out countless prediction tasks in conjunction with machine learning, such as identifying high risk patients suffering from a certain disease and taking preventable measures. However, healthcare practitioners are not content with mere predictions - they are also interested in the cause-effect relation between input features and clinical outcomes. Understanding such relations will he…
Scalable Bi-causal Optimal Transport via KL Relaxation and Policy Gradients
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Data Science and AI Institute, and Mathematical Institute for Data Science, Johns Hopkins University（应用数学与统计学系、数据科学与人工智能学院以及数据科学数学研究所，约翰霍普金斯大学）；Department of Statistics, Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance, and Nuffield College, University of Oxford（统计系、牛津-曼定量金融研究所以及牛津大学努尔菲尔德学院）；Management Science & Engineering Department, Stanford University（管理科学与工程系，斯坦福大学）；School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University（北京大学数学科学学院）
Interpretable Reward Redistribution in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Approach
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣迭戈分校）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；University of Liverpool（利物浦大学）
This work explores the idea of a causal contextual multi-armed bandit approach to automated marketing, where we estimate and optimize the causal (incremental) effects. Focusing on causal effect leads to better return on investment (ROI) by targeting only the persuadable customers who wouldn't have taken the action organically. Our approach draws on strengths of causal inference, uplift modeling, and multi-armed bandits. It optimizes on causal treatment effects rather than pure outcome, and incorporates counterfactual generation within data collection. Following uplift modeling results, we opti…
CausalCOMRL: Context-Based Offline Meta-Reinforcement Learning with Causal Representation
organization= School of Software , addressline= Shandong University , city= Jinan , postcode= 250101 , country= China；organization= The State Key Lab of Brain-Machine Intelligence , addressline= Zhejiang University , city= Hangzhou , postcode= 310027 , country= China
Causal Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Sample-Efficient IoT Channel Access
Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India（电子工程系，印度理工学院，蒂鲁帕蒂，安得拉邦，印度）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA（电气与计算机工程系，沃思堡理工大学，沃思堡，马萨诸塞州，美国）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA, USA（电气与计算机工程系，弗吉尼亚理工大学，亚历山大，弗吉尼亚州，美国）
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts' opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts' causal judgments can be combined in order to…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）
The intersection of causal inference and machine learning for decision-making is rapidly expanding, but the default decision criterion remains an \textit{average} of individual causal outcomes across a population. In practice, various operational restrictions ensure that a decision-maker's utility is not realized as an \textit{average} but rather as an \textit{output} of a downstream decision-making problem (such as matching, assignment, network flow, minimizing predictive risk). In this work, we develop a new framework for off-policy evaluation with \textit{policy-dependent} linear optimizati…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；CSAIL（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）
We introduce an off-policy evaluation procedure for highlighting episodes where applying a reinforcement learned (RL) policy is likely to have produced a substantially different outcome than the observed policy. In particular, we introduce a class of structural causal models (SCMs) for generating counterfactual trajectories in finite partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). We see this as a useful procedure for off-policy "debugging" in high-risk settings (e.g., healthcare); by decomposing the expected difference in reward between the RL and observed policy into specific episod…
Monash University（莫纳什大学）；Turning Point, Eastern Health Clinical School, Monash University（莫纳什大学东方健康临床学院Turning Point）
Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand load has become a considerable burden for many government authorities, and EMS demand is often an early indicator for stress in communities, a warning sign of emerging problems. In this paper, we introduce Deep Planning and Policy Making Net (DeepPPMNet), a Long Short-Term Memory network based, global forecasting and inference framework to forecast the EMS demand, analyse causal relationships, and perform `what-if' analyses for policy-making across multiple local government areas. Unless traditional univariate forecasting techniques, the proposed method …
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich（慕尼黑大学）；Siemens CT（西门子中央研究院）
Estimating individual treatment effects from data of randomized experiments is a critical task in causal inference. The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) is usually made in causal inference. However, interference can introduce bias when the assigned treatment on one unit affects the potential outcomes of the neighboring units. This interference phenomenon is known as spillover effect in economics or peer effect in social science. Usually, in randomized experiments or observational studies with interconnected units, one can only observe treatment responses under interference. Hence…
Assessing the effects of a policy based on observational data from a different policy is a common problem across several high-stake decision-making domains, and several off-policy evaluation (OPE) techniques have been proposed. However, these methods largely formulate OPE as a problem disassociated from the process used to generate the data (i.e. structural assumptions in the form of a causal graph). We argue that explicitly highlighting this association has important implications on our understanding of the fundamental limits of OPE. First, this implies that current formulation of OPE corresp…
Econometric vs. Causal Structure-Learning for Time-Series Policy Decisions: Evidence from the UK COVID-19 Policies
Bayesian Artificial Intelligence research lab, MInDS research group（贝叶斯人工智能研究实验室，MInDS研究小组）；School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London（电子工程与计算机科学学院，伦敦女王玛丽大学）
Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on the treatment effect of a single outcome dimension. These methods are unable to capture continuous space treatment policies with a measure of intensity. They also lack the capacity to consider the complexity of treatment such as matching candidate treatments with the subject. We propose to formulate the effectiveness of treatment as a parametrizable model, ex…
