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arXiv 2005.10180cs.AIcs.LG
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结合专家的因果判断

Combining Experts' Causal Judgments

Imperial College London(帝国理工学院);Cornell University(康奈尔大学)

Dalal Alrajeh, Hana Chockler, Joseph Y. Halpern

摘要:

考虑一个政策制定者,他想决定采取何种干预措施来改变目前不受欢迎的局面。决策者有一个专家团队,每个人都对影响结果的不同因素之间的因果关系有自己的理解。决策者对专家的意见有不同程度的信任。她想综合他们的意见,以决定最有效的干预措施。我们正式定义了有效干预的概念,然后考虑如何将专家的因果判断结合起来,以确定最有效的干预。我们定义了一个概念,两个因果模型是\emph{compatible},并显示如何兼容的因果模型可以合并。然后,我们使用它作为组合专家因果判断的基础。我们还提供了一个定义的分解因果模型,以满足模型不兼容的情况下。我们说明了我们的方法在一些现实生活中的例子。

英文摘要:

Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts' opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts' causal judgments can be combined in order to determine the most effective intervention. We define a notion of two causal models being \emph{compatible}, and show how compatible causal models can be merged. We then use it as the basis for combining experts' causal judgments. We also provide a definition of decomposition for causal models to cater for cases when models are incompatible. We illustrate our approach on a number of real-life examples.

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