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arXiv 2312.08511cs.CYcs.LGecon.THstat.ML
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算法决策中预测的相对价值

The Relative Value of Prediction in Algorithmic Decision Making

Harvard University(哈佛大学)

Juan Carlos Perdomo

AI总结:

研究算法决策中预测在改善社会福利方面的相对价值,在多个统计模型中确定了预测与扩大资源获取等政策杠杆相比的相对价值条件,并指导实际系统设计。

摘要:

算法预测正越来越多地被用于指导公共领域中资源与干预措施的分配。在这些领域,预测是达成目的的手段。它们为利益相关者提供对未来事件发生可能性的洞察,以此作为提高决策质量和增进社会福利的手段。然而,如果最大化福利是最终目标,预测只是拼图的一小部分。社会规划者还可以追求其他各种政策杠杆来改善最终结果,例如扩大可用资源的获取途径,或增加干预措施的效果规模。鉴于设计决策的广泛性,一个基本问题是:在算法决策中,预测的相对价值是什么?由更好的预测带来的福利改善与其他政策杠杆相比如何?我们工作的目标是开启对这些问题的正式研究。我们的主要结果是理论性的。在定量社会科学家常用的几个统计模型中,我们确定了简单且明确的条件,用以判定预测相对于扩大获取途径的相对价值。此外,我们阐明了如何将这些理论见解用于指导实践中算法决策系统的设计。

英文摘要:

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly used to inform the allocations of goods and interventions in the public sphere. In these domains, predictions serve as a means to an end. They provide stakeholders with insights into likelihood of future events as a means to improve decision making quality, and enhance social welfare. However, if maximizing welfare is the ultimate goal, prediction is only a small piece of the puzzle. There are various other policy levers a social planner might pursue in order to improve bottom-line outcomes, such as expanding access to available goods, or increasing the effect sizes of interventions. Given this broad range of design decisions, a basic question to ask is: What is the relative value of prediction in algorithmic decision making? How do the improvements in welfare arising from better predictions compare to those of other policy levers? The goal of our work is to initiate the formal study of these questions. Our main results are theoretical in nature. We identify simple, sharp conditions determining the relative value of prediction vis-à-vis expanding access, within several statistical models that are popular amongst quantitative social scientists. Furthermore, we illustrate how these theoretical insights may be used to guide the design of algorithmic decision making systems in practice.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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