In recent years, researchers proposed a variety of deep learning models for wind power forecasting. These models predict the wind power generation of wind farms or entire regions more accurately than traditional machine learning algorithms or physical models. However, latest research has shown that deep learning models can often be manipulated by adversarial attacks. Since wind power forecasts are essential for the stability of modern power systems, it is important to protect them from this threat. In this work, we investigate the vulnerability of two different forecasting models to targeted, semi-targeted, and untargeted adversarial attacks. We consider a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for predicting the power generation of individual wind farms and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for forecasting the wind power generation throughout Germany. Moreover, we propose the Total Adversarial Robustness Score (TARS), an evaluation metric for quantifying the robustness of regression models to targeted and semi-targeted adversarial attacks. It assesses the impact of attacks on the model's performance, as well as the extent to which the attacker's goal was achieved, by assigning a score between 0 (very vulnerable) and 1 (very robust). In our experiments, the LSTM forecasting model was fairly robust and achieved a TARS value of over 0.78 for all adversarial attacks investigated. The CNN forecasting model only achieved TARS values below 0.10 when trained ordinarily, and was thus very vulnerable. Yet, its robustness could be significantly improved by adversarial training, which always resulted in a TARS above 0.46.
Trajectory prediction is an integral component of modern autonomous systems as it allows for envisioning future intentions of nearby moving agents. Due to the lack of other agents' dynamics and control policies, deep neural network (DNN) models are often employed for trajectory forecasting tasks. Although there exists an extensive literature on improving the accuracy of these models, there is a very limited number of works studying their robustness against adversarially crafted input trajectories. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we propose a targeted adversarial attack against DNN models fo…
WindFM: An Open-Source Foundation Model for Zero-Shot Wind Power Forecasting
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University（经济管理学院，华北电力大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences（交叉信息学院）；Department of Automation（自动化系）；Department of Electrical Engineering（电气工程系）
AIShield；Bosch Global Software Technologies（博世全球软件技术公司）
Real-world deep learning models developed for Time Series Forecasting are used in several critical applications ranging from medical devices to the security domain. Many previous works have shown how deep learning models are prone to adversarial attacks and studied their vulnerabilities. However, the vulnerabilities of time series models for forecasting due to adversarial inputs are not extensively explored. While the attack on a forecasting model might aim to deteriorate the performance of the model, it is more effective, if the attack is focused on a specific impact on the model's output. In…
Improving the forecast accuracy of wind power by leveraging multiple hierarchical structure
Lucas English School of Mathematics and Physics The University of Queensland St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia（Lucas English 数学与物理学院 昆士兰大学 斯塔 Lucia 分校）；Mahdi Abolghasemi School of Mathematics and Physics The University of Queensland St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia（Mahdi Abolghasemi 数学与物理学院 昆士兰大学 斯塔 Lucia 分校）
Building the conditional probability distribution of wind power forecast errors benefits both wind farms (WFs) and independent system operators (ISOs). Establishing the joint probability distribution of wind power and the corresponding forecast data of spatially correlated WFs is the foundation for deriving the conditional probability distribution. Traditional parameter estimation methods for probability distributions require the collection of historical data of all WFs. However, in the context of multi-regional interconnected grids, neither regional ISOs nor WFs can collect the raw data of WF…
System Engineering Institute, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学系统工程研究所）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）；Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co. Ltd.（国网辽宁省电力有限公司电力科学研究院）
Wind power is one of the most important renewable energy sources and accurate wind power forecasting is very significant for reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. This paper proposes a novel framework with spatiotemporal attention networks (STAN) for wind power forecasting. This model captures spatial correlations among wind farms and temporal dependencies of wind power time series. First of all, we employ a multi-head self-attention mechanism to extract spatial correlations among wind farms. Then, temporal dependencies are captured by the Sequence-to-Sequence (S…
Shandong University（山东大学）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) approach for short-term probabilistic wind generation forecasting is proposed in this paper to exploit the advantages of different forecasting models. The proposed approach can combine different forecasting models th…
Geometric deep learning has gained tremendous attention in both academia and industry due to its inherent capability of representing arbitrary structures. Due to exponential increase in interest towards renewable sources of energy, especially wind energy, accurate wind speed forecasting has become very important. . In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning architecture, Multi Scale Graph Wavenet for wind speed forecasting. It is based on a graph convolutional neural network and captures both spatial and temporal relationships in multivariate time series weather data for wind speed foreca…
In this technical report, we present our solution for the Baidu KDD Cup 2022 Spatial Dynamic Wind Power Forecasting Challenge. Wind power is a rapidly growing source of clean energy. Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability and the security of supply. Therefore, organizers provide a wind power dataset containing historical data from 134 wind turbines and launch the Baidu KDD Cup 2022 to examine the limitations of current methods for wind power forecasting. The average of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is used as the evaluation score. We adopt…
In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on KSHMM. We numerically compared the performance of our KSHMM-based forecasting technique to other techniques with machine learning, using wind-speed data offered by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Our results demonstrate that, compared to these methods, the proposed technique offers comparable or better performance.
Precisely forecasting wind speed is essential for wind power producers and grid operators. However, this task is challenging due to the stochasticity of wind speed. To accurately predict short-term wind speed under uncertainties, this paper proposed a multi-variable stacked LSTMs model (MSLSTM). The proposed method utilizes multiple historical meteorological variables, such as wind speed, temperature, humidity, pressure, dew point and solar radiation to accurately predict wind speeds. The prediction performance is extensively assessed using real data collected in West Texas, USA. The experimen…
Department of Statistics, Texas A\&M University, College Station, TX
Wind power forecasting has drawn increasing attention among researchers as the consumption of renewable energy grows. In this paper, we develop a deep learning approach based on encoder-decoder structure. Our model forecasts wind power generated by a wind turbine using its spatial location relative to other turbines and historical wind speed data. In this way, we effectively integrate spatial dependency and temporal trends to make turbine-specific predictions. The advantages of our method over existing work can be summarized as 1) it directly predicts wind power based on historical wind speed,…
University of Kerala（喀拉拉大学）；College of Engineering, Thiruvananthapuram（特里凡得琅工程学院）
Wind speed forecasting models and their application to wind farm operations are attaining remarkable attention in the literature because of its benefits as a clean energy source. In this paper, we suggested the time series machine learning approach called random forest regression for predicting wind speed variations. The computed values of mutual information and auto-correlation shows that wind speed values depend on the past data up to 12 hours. The random forest model was trained using ensemble from two weeks data with previous 12 hours values as input for every value. The computed root mean…
Despite the increasing importance of forecasts of renewable energy, current planning studies only address a general estimate of the forecast quality to be expected and selected forecast horizons. However, these estimates allow only a limited and highly uncertain use in the planning of electric power distribution. More reliable planning processes require considerably more information about future forecast quality. In this article, we present an in-depth analysis and comparison of influencing factors regarding uncertainty in wind and photovoltaic power forecasts, based on four different machine …
Spatial Temporal Approach for High-Resolution Gridded Wind Forecasting across Southwest Western Australia
International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, University of Western Australia（国际射电天文研究中心，西澳大利亚大学）；UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia（西澳大利亚大学海洋研究所）
Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学）；Texas A&M University-Kingsville（德州农工大学金斯维尔分校）
Two-stage ensemble-based forecasting methods have been studied extensively in the wind power forecasting field. However, deep learning-based wind power forecasting studies have not investigated two aspects. In the first stage, different learning structures considering multiple inputs and multiple outputs have not been discussed. In the second stage, the model extrapolation issue has not been investigated. Therefore, we develop four deep neural networks for the first stage to learn data features considering the input-and-output structure. We then explore the model extrapolation issue in the sec…
University of Texas at Arlington（德克萨斯大学阿灵顿分校）；Mojio Inc.（Mojio公司）
The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm using Deep Learning (DL)and in particular, Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs). Motivated by recent advances in renewable energy integration and smart grids, we apply our proposed algorithm for wind speed forecasting. Renewable energy resources (wind and solar)are random in nature and, thus, their integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts. In our proposed framework, we model the spatiotemporal information by a graph whose nodes are data generating entities and its edges basically model how these nodes are int…
This paper introduces an R package ForecastTB that can be used to compare the accuracy of different forecasting methods as related to the characteristics of a time series dataset. The ForecastTB is a plug-and-play structured module, and several forecasting methods can be included with simple instructions. The proposed test-bench is not limited to the default forecasting and error metric functions, and users are able to append, remove, or choose the desired methods as per requirements. Besides, several plotting functions and statistical performance metrics are provided to visualize the comparat…
Improving the Accuracy and Interpretability of Neural Networks for Wind Power Forecasting
Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）
Wind power and other forms of renewable energy sources play an ever more important role in the energy supply of today's power grids. Forecasting renewable energy sources has therefore become essential in balancing the power grid. While a lot of focus is placed on new forecasting methods, little attention is given on how to compare, reproduce and transfer the methods to other use cases and data. One reason for this lack of attention is the limited availability of open-source datasets, as many currently used datasets are non-disclosed and make reproducibility of research impossible. This unavail…
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)（荷兰皇家气象研究所（KNMI））；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
Current statistical post-processing methods for probabilistic weather forecasting are not capable of using full spatial patterns from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In this paper we incorporate spatial wind speed information by using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and obtain probabilistic wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands for 48 hours ahead, based on KNMI's deterministic Harmonie-Arome NWP model. The probabilistic forecasts from the CNNs are shown to have higher Brier skill scores for medium to higher wind speeds, as well as a better continuous ranked probability sco…
The transition from conventional methods of energy production to renewable energy production necessitates better prediction models of the upcoming supply of renewable energy. In wind power production, error in forecasting production is impossible to negate owing to the intermittence of wind. For successful power grid integration, it is crucial to understand the uncertainties that arise in predicting wind power production and use this information to build an accurate and reliable forecast. This can be achieved by observing the fluctuations in wind power production with changes in different para…
CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎综合理工学院CMAP实验室）
We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy systems and markets. We use machine learning to combine outputs from numerical weather prediction models with local observations. The former provide valuable information on higher scales dynamics while the latter gives the model fresher and location-specific data. So as to make the results usable for practitioners, we focus on well-known methods which can handle a…
KDD CUP 2022 proposes a time-series forecasting task on spatial dynamic wind power dataset, in which the participants are required to predict the future generation given the historical context factors. The evaluation metrics contain RMSE and MAE. This paper describes the solution of Team 88VIP, which mainly comprises two types of models: a gradient boosting decision tree to memorize the basic data patterns and a recurrent neural network to capture the deep and latent probabilistic transitions. Ensembling these models contributes to tackle the fluctuation of wind power, and training submodels t…
University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学）；Institute for Energy Systems (IFE)（能源系统研究所）
This study focuses on multi-step spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting for the Norwegian continental shelf. The study aims to leverage spatial dependencies through the relative physical location of different measurement stations to improve local wind forecasts. Our multi-step forecasting models produce either 10-minute, 1- or 4-hour forecasts, with 10-minute resolution, meaning that the models produce more informative time series for predicted future trends. A graph neural network (GNN) architecture was used to extract spatial dependencies, with different update functions to learn temporal co…
Toronto Metropolitan University（多伦多都会大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Bogazici University（博阿齐奇大学）
Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly accurate long-term predictions for wind power can be extremely difficult. One approach to remedy this challenge is to utilize weather information from multiple points across a geographical grid to obtain a holistic view of the wind patterns, along with temporal information from the previous power outputs of the wind farms. Our proposed CNN-RNN architecture combine…
Achieving Skilled and Reliable Daily Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales over France
Atos Inno’Lab TS Bezons（阿托斯创新实验室TS贝宗）；EDF R&D Lab（EDF研发实验室）；Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat & de l’Environnement（气候与环境科学实验室）；CEA（法国国家科学研究中心）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；UVSQ（法国大学巴黎-萨克雷）；Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎-萨克雷大学）；Laboratoire de Mathématiques d’Orsay（奥赛数学实验室）
Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power Integration in Smart Grids based on Hybrid LSSVM-SVMD Method
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Mekelle University（梅克莱尔大学电气与计算机工程学院）；Binghamton University（宾汉姆顿大学）；School of Computer Science Engineering, Galgotias University（加尔各答大学计算机科学与工程学院）；School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology（亚的斯亚贝巴理工学院电气与计算机工程学院）
Northeast Electric Power University（东北电力大学）；State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd. Jilin Power Supply Company（国网吉林省电力有限公司吉林供电公司）；Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）；Naval University of Engineering（海军工程大学）；Cranfield University（克兰菲尔德大学）
In a modern power system with an increasing proportion of renewable energy, wind power prediction is crucial to the arrangement of power grid dispatching plans due to the volatility of wind power. However, traditional centralized forecasting methods raise concerns regarding data privacy-preserving and data islands problem. To handle the data privacy and openness, we propose a forecasting scheme that combines federated learning and deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for ultra-short-term wind power forecasting, called federated deep reinforcement learning (FedDRL). Firstly, this paper uses the de…
DeepMIDE: A Multi-Output Spatio-Temporal Method for Ultra-Scale Offshore Wind Energy Forecasting
Department of Industrial Engineering, Clemson University（克莱姆森大学工业工程系）；Department of Computer Science, Rutgers University（罗杰斯大学计算机科学系）；Department of Statistics, Rutgers University（罗杰斯大学统计学系）；Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Rutgers University（罗杰斯大学工业与系统工程系）；University College, Korea University（韩国大学大学学院）
Symbolic regression corresponds to an ensemble of techniques that allow to uncover an analytical equation from data. Through a closed form formula, these techniques provide great advantages such as potential scientific discovery of new laws, as well as explainability, feature engineering as well as fast inference. Similarly, deep learning based techniques has shown an extraordinary ability of modeling complex patterns. The present paper aims at applying a recent end-to-end symbolic regression technique, i.e. the equation learner (EQL), to get an analytical equation for wind speed forecasting. …
Improving sub-seasonal wind-speed forecasts in Europe with a non-linear model
a LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS,Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Palaiseau, 91120, France b INRIA, Paris, France c EDF R\&D, Palaiseau, France
In recent years, transfer learning gained particular interest in the field of vision and natural language processing. In the research field of vision, e.g., deep neural networks and transfer learning techniques achieve almost perfect classification scores within minutes. Nonetheless, these techniques are not yet widely applied in other domains. Therefore, this article identifies critical challenges and shows potential solutions for power forecasts in the field of renewable energies. It proposes a framework utilizing transfer learning techniques in wind power forecasts with limited or no histor…
Adani Institute of Infrastructure Engineering（阿达尼基础设施工程学院）
Wind turbine is a complex machine with its rotating and non-rotating equipment being sensitive to faults. Due to increased wear and tear, the maintenance aspect of a wind turbine is of critical importance. Unexpected failure of wind turbine components can lead to increased O\&M costs which ultimately reduces effective power capture of a wind farm. Fault detection in wind turbines is often supplemented with SCADA data available from wind farm operators in the form of time-series format with a 10-minute sample interval. Moreover, time-series analysis and data representation has become a powerful…
