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arXiv 2204.09019eess.SPcs.LGcs.SYeess.SYphysics.ao-ph
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面向不同时间尺度增强型风速预测的混合Transformer网络

Hybrid Transformer Network for Different Horizons-based Enriched Wind Speed Forecasting

Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee(印度鲁基理工学院)

M. Madhiarasan, Partha Pratim Roy

AI总结:

本文提出一种基于ICEEMDAN分解、Transformer网络预测与MLP误差修正的混合风速预测模型,在印度真实风电场数据上取得优于现有方法的精度。

摘要:

高精度的不同时间尺度风速预测有助于构建更优的现代电力系统。本文提出了一种新颖的、精密的混合风速预测模型,并将其应用于不同时间尺度。所提出的混合预测模型使用带自适应噪声的改进完全集合经验模态分解(ICEEMDAN)将原始风速数据分解为固有模态函数(IMF)。我们将从ICEEMDAN得到的子序列输入Transformer网络。每个Transformer网络计算预测子序列,然后将其传递到融合阶段。通过融合各个Transformer网络的预测子序列获得初步风速预测。估计残差误差值,并使用多层感知器神经网络预测误差。将预测误差加到初步预测风速上,以提高风速预测的精度。基于印度Kethanur风电场实时数据集的对比分析结果表明,所提出的ICEEMDAN-TNF-MLPN-RECS混合模型具有优越性能:案例研究1中MAE=1.7096*10^-07、MAPE=2.8416*10^-06、MRE=2.8416*10^-08、MSE=5.0206*10^-14、RMSE=2.2407*10^-07;案例研究2中MAE=6.1565*10^-07、MAPE=9.5005*10^-06、MRE=9.5005*10^-08、MSE=8.9289*10^-13、RMSE=9.4493*10^-07,其增强型风速预测优于现有最先进方法,并减轻了电力系统工程师的负担。

英文摘要:

Highly accurate different horizon-based wind speed forecasting facilitates a better modern power system. This paper proposed a novel astute hybrid wind speed forecasting model and applied it to different horizons. The proposed hybrid forecasting model decomposes the original wind speed data into IMFs (Intrinsic Mode Function) using Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN). We fed the obtained subseries from ICEEMDAN to the transformer network. Each transformer network computes the forecast subseries and then passes to the fusion phase. Get the primary wind speed forecasting from the fusion of individual transformer network forecast subseries. Estimate the residual error values and predict errors using a multilayer perceptron neural network. The forecast error is added to the primary forecast wind speed to leverage the high accuracy of wind speed forecasting. Comparative analysis with real-time Kethanur, India wind farm dataset results reveals the proposed ICEEMDAN-TNF-MLPN-RECS hybrid model's superior performance with MAE=1.7096*10^-07, MAPE=2.8416*10^-06, MRE=2.8416*10^-08, MSE=5.0206*10^-14, and RMSE=2.2407*10^-07 for case study 1 and MAE=6.1565*10^-07, MAPE=9.5005*10^-06, MRE=9.5005*10^-08, MSE=8.9289*10^-13, and RMSE=9.4493*10^-07 for case study 2 enriched wind speed forecasting than state-of-the-art methods and reduces the burden on the power system engineer.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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