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arXiv 2303.02707cs.CLcs.CY
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利用股市情绪指标通过分层金融数据进行行业风险评估

Industry Risk Assessment via Hierarchical Financial Data Using Stock Market Sentiment Indicators

Hongyin Zhu

AI总结:

针对传统行业风险评估依赖官方统计数据时效性不足的问题,提出结合显性分层数据分析与隐性预训练SML新闻解读的双轨方法,利用实时股市数据与生成式小语言模型提升风险评估的准确性与动态性。

摘要:

跨行业风险评估对于保障经济稳健可持续发展至关重要。以往研究虽因准确性高度依赖官方统计数据,但往往滞后于实时发展动态。为弥补这一差距,本研究致力于将市场微观结构理论与人工智能技术相结合,优化行业风险预测。本文提出一种利用实时股市数据与生成式小语言模型(SLMs)分析行业趋势的方法,通过提升风险评估的时效性,深入探究市场情绪、投资者行为等非传统因素的影响,力求构建更全面、动态的风险评估模型。\n研究面临的核心挑战之一是原始数据中存在固有噪声,可能降低统计分析的精度。此外,行业分析相关的文本数据需要借助预训练语言模型实现更深层次的理解。针对这些问题,我们提出行业趋势分析的双轨方法:显性分析与隐性分析。在显性分析方面,我们采用覆盖行业层面与单个上市公司层面的分层数据分析方法,这种策略性拆分有助于缓解数据噪声的影响,确保更精准地刻画行业动态。与此同时,我们引入隐性分析:预训练一个SML,结合当前新闻事件背景解读行业趋势。该方法利用预训练语料中蕴含的丰富知识,能够细致理解行业趋势及其潜在驱动因素。基于所提方法的实验结果表明,其在提供可靠的行业趋势分析方面效果显著,凸显了革新跨行业风险评估实践的潜力。

英文摘要:

Risk assessment across industries is paramount for ensuring a robust and sustainable economy. While previous studies have relied heavily on official statistics for their accuracy, they often lag behind real-time developments. Addressing this gap, our research endeavors to integrate market microstructure theory with AI technologies to refine industry risk predictions. This paper presents an approach to analyzing industry trends leveraging real-time stock market data and generative small language models (SLMs). By enhancing the timeliness of risk assessments and delving into the influence of non-traditional factors such as market sentiment and investor behavior, we strive to develop a more holistic and dynamic risk assessment model. One of the key challenges lies in the inherent noise in raw data, which can compromise the precision of statistical analyses. Moreover, textual data about industry analysis necessitates a deeper understanding facilitated by pre-trained language models. To tackle these issues, we propose a dual-pronged approach to industry trend analysis: explicit and implicit analysis. For explicit analysis, we employ a hierarchical data analysis methodology that spans the industry and individual listed company levels. This strategic breakdown helps mitigate the impact of data noise, ensuring a more accurate portrayal of industry dynamics. In parallel, we introduce implicit analysis, where we pre-train an SML to interpret industry trends within the context of current news events. This approach leverages the extensive knowledge embedded in the pre-training corpus, enabling a nuanced understanding of industry trends and their underlying drivers. Experimental results based on our proposed methodology demonstrate its effectiveness in delivering robust industry trend analyses, underscoring its potential to revolutionize risk assessment practices across industries.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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