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arXiv 2303.00515cs.LGstat.ME
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具有时空因果注意力机制的可解释水位预测器

Interpretable Water Level Forecaster with Spatiotemporal Causal Attention Mechanisms

Department of Statistics, Changwon National University(昌原国立大学统计学系);Department of Statistics, Unversity of Seoul(首尔大学统计学系)

Sungchul Hong, Yunjin Choi, Jong-June Jeon

AI总结:

本文提出一种带掩码的时空因果 transformer 水位预测模型,通过生成符合常识的定量可解释性度量,在首尔汉江数据集上取得更优预测效果与分布偏移鲁棒性。

摘要:

准确预测河流水位对于有效管理交通流量和降低与自然灾害相关的风险至关重要。由于影响河流流动的因素错综复杂,这项任务具有挑战性。机器学习的最新进展带来了许多有效的预测方法。然而,这些方法因其结构复杂而缺乏可解释性,导致可靠性有限。为解决这一问题,本研究提出了一种可量化可解释性的深度学习模型,重点关注水位预测。该模型致力于生成与输入数据中蕴含的常识相一致的定量可解释性度量。这一目标通过采用专门设计的带掩码 transformer 架构实现,其中包含一个捕捉时空因果关系的多层网络。我们在来自韩国首尔的 2016 年至 2021 年汉江数据集上进行了比较分析。结果表明,我们的方法提供了与常识一致的增强可解释性,性能优于竞争方法,并且还提升了对分布偏移的鲁棒性。

英文摘要:

Accurate forecasting of river water levels is vital for effectively managing traffic flow and mitigating the risks associated with natural disasters. This task presents challenges due to the intricate factors influencing the flow of a river. Recent advances in machine learning have introduced numerous effective forecasting methods. However, these methods lack interpretability due to their complex structure, resulting in limited reliability. Addressing this issue, this study proposes a deep learning model that quantifies interpretability, with an emphasis on water level forecasting. This model focuses on generating quantitative interpretability measurements, which align with the common knowledge embedded in the input data. This is facilitated by the utilization of a transformer architecture that is purposefully designed with masking, incorporating a multi-layer network that captures spatiotemporal causation. We perform a comparative analysis on the Han River dataset obtained from Seoul, South Korea, from 2016 to 2021. The results illustrate that our approach offers enhanced interpretability consistent with common knowledge, outperforming competing methods and also enhances robustness against distribution shift.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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