Traditional neural networks are simple to train but they typically produce overconfident predictions. In contrast, Bayesian neural networks provide good uncertainty quantification but optimizing them is time consuming due to the large parameter space. This paper proposes to combine the advantages of both approaches by performing Variational Inference in the Final layer Output space (VIFO), because the output space is much smaller than the parameter space. We use neural networks to learn the mean and the variance of the probabilistic output. Using the Bayesian formulation we incorporate collapsed variational inference with VIFO which significantly improves the performance in practice. On the other hand, like standard, non-Bayesian models, VIFO enjoys simple training and one can use Rademacher complexity to provide risk bounds for the model. Experiments show that VIFO provides a good tradeoff in terms of run time and uncertainty quantification, especially for out of distribution data.
We consider the problem of joint modelling of metabolic signals and gene expression in systems biology applications. We propose an approach based on input-output factorial hidden Markov models and propose a structured variational inference approach to infer the structure and states of the model. We start from the classical free form structured variational mean field approach and use a expectation propagation to approximate the expectations needed in the variational loop. We show that this corresponds to a factored expectation constrained approximate inference. We validate our model through ext…
Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model uncertainty. Variational methods have been used for approximating intractable integrals that arise in Bayesian inference for neural networks. In this report, we review the major variational inference concepts pertinent to Bayesian neural networks and compare various approximation methods used in literature. We also talk about the applications of variational bayes in …
Topic models are Bayesian models that are frequently used to capture the latent structure of certain corpora of documents or images. Each data element in such a corpus (for instance each item in a collection of scientific articles) is regarded as a convex combination of a small number of vectors corresponding to `topics' or `components'. The weights are assumed to have a Dirichlet prior distribution. The standard approach towards approximating the posterior is to use variational inference algorithms, and in particular a mean field approximation. We show that this approach suffers from an insta…
Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed latent state-space trajectories with nonlinear transitions, ii) scale to large data sets thanks to the use of a stochastic objective and fast, approximate inference, iii) enable the design of rich emission models which iv) will naturally lead to structured outputs. Two different paths of introducing latent state sequences are pursued, leading to the variatio…
Recent progress in deep latent variable models has largely been driven by the development of flexible and scalable variational inference methods. Variational training of this type involves maximizing a lower bound on the log-likelihood, using samples from the variational posterior to compute the required gradients. Recently, Burda et al. (2016) have derived a tighter lower bound using a multi-sample importance sampling estimate of the likelihood and showed that optimizing it yields models that use more of their capacity and achieve higher likelihoods. This development showed the importance of …
Amsterdam Machine Learning Lab, University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学阿姆斯特丹机器学习实验室）
Neural processes (NPs) constitute a family of variational approximate models for stochastic processes with promising properties in computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification. These processes use neural networks with latent variable inputs to induce predictive distributions. However, the expressiveness of vanilla NPs is limited as they only use a global latent variable, while target specific local variation may be crucial sometimes. To address this challenge, we investigate NPs systematically and present a new variant of NP model that we call Doubly Stochastic Variational Neural Pr…
Robustness to outliers is a central issue in real-world machine learning applications. While replacing a model to a heavy-tailed one (e.g., from Gaussian to Student-t) is a standard approach for robustification, it can only be applied to simple models. In this paper, based on Zellner's optimization and variational formulation of Bayesian inference, we propose an outlier-robust pseudo-Bayesian variational method by replacing the Kullback-Leibler divergence used for data fitting to a robust divergence such as the beta- and gamma-divergences. An advantage of our approach is that superior but comp…
We consider the problem of state estimation in general state-space models using variational inference. For a generic variational family defined using the same backward decomposition as the actual joint smoothing distribution, we establish for the first time that, under mixing assumptions, the variational approximation of expectations of additive state functionals induces an error which grows at most linearly in the number of observations. This guarantee is consistent with the known upper bounds for the approximation of smoothing distributions using standard Monte Carlo methods. Moreover, we pr…
Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay（印度理工学院孟买分校）
Deep neural networks have revolutionized medical image analysis and disease diagnosis. Despite their impressive performance, it is difficult to generate well-calibrated probabilistic outputs for such networks, which makes them uninterpretable black boxes. Bayesian neural networks provide a principled approach for modelling uncertainty and increasing patient safety, but they have a large computational overhead and provide limited improvement in calibration. In this work, by taking skin lesion classification as an example task, we show that by shifting Bayesian inference to the functional space …
We detect out-of-training-distribution sentences in Neural Machine Translation using the Bayesian Deep Learning equivalent of Transformer models. For this we develop a new measure of uncertainty designed specifically for long sequences of discrete random variables -- i.e. words in the output sentence. Our new measure of uncertainty solves a major intractability in the naive application of existing approaches on long sentences. We use our new measure on a Transformer model trained with dropout approximate inference. On the task of German-English translation using WMT13 and Europarl, we show tha…
IBM Research AI（IBM研究人工智能部门）；Yorktown Heights, NY（纽约州约克镇高地（这里注意：根据提取规则，地址信息不应提取，但原HTML中“Affiliation: Yorktown Heights, NY”可能是地址而非机构，结合上下文，正确机构应为“IBM Research AI”，另一个“Affiliation”可能是地址或重复，需确认。但根据提取规则，只提取明确的机构。原文本中明确的机构是“IBM Research AI”，“Yorktown Heights, NY”是地点，非机构。因此正确应为[{）
Disentangled representations, where the higher level data generative factors are reflected in disjoint latent dimensions, offer several benefits such as ease of deriving invariant representations, transferability to other tasks, interpretability, etc. We consider the problem of unsupervised learning of disentangled representations from large pool of unlabeled observations, and propose a variational inference based approach to infer disentangled latent factors. We introduce a regularizer on the expectation of the approximate posterior over observed data that encourages the disentanglement. We a…
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology (HIIT)（赫尔辛基信息技术研究所）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）
Many machine learning applications are based on data collected from people, such as their tastes and behaviour as well as biological traits and genetic data. Regardless of how important the application might be, one has to make sure individuals' identities or the privacy of the data are not compromised in the analysis. Differential privacy constitutes a powerful framework that prevents breaching of data subject privacy from the output of a computation. Differentially private versions of many important Bayesian inference methods have been proposed, but there is a lack of an efficient unified ap…
Criteo AI Lab（Criteo人工智能实验室）；Durham University（杜伦大学）
The combination of the re-parameterization trick with the use of variational auto-encoders has caused a sensation in Bayesian deep learning, allowing the training of realistic generative models of images and has considerably increased our ability to use scalable latent variable models. The re-parameterization trick is necessary for models in which no analytical variational bound is available and allows noisy gradients to be computed for arbitrary models. However, for certain standard output layers of a neural network, analytical bounds are available and the variational auto-encoder may be used…
University of Utah（犹他大学）；School of Computing（计算学院）；Scientific Computing and Imaging Institute（科学计算与成像研究所）
Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such structures) over all the outputs and latent functions for posterior approximation, which, however, can miss the strong posterior dependencies among the latent variables and hurt the inference quality. In addition, the updates of the variational parameters are inefficient and can be prohibitively expensive for a large number of outputs. To overcome these limitations…
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have been used for several years in many time series analysis or pattern recognitions tasks. HMM are often trained by means of the Baum-Welch algorithm which can be seen as a special variant of an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Second-order training techniques such as Variational Bayesian Inference (VI) for probabilistic models regard the parameters of the probabilistic models as random variables and define distributions over these distribution parameters, hence the name of this technique. VI can also bee regarded as a special case of an EM algorithm. In th…
This paper shows how the variational Bayes method provides a computational efficient technique in the context of hierarchical modelling using Dirichlet process priors, in particular without requiring conjugate prior assumption. It shows, using the so called parameter separation parameterization, a simple criterion under which the variational method works well. Based on this framework, its provides a full variational solution for the Dirichlet process. The numerical results show that the method is very computationally efficient when compared to MCMC. Finally, we propose an empirical method to e…
A recent novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes handles heterogeneous outputs assuming that each output has its own likelihood function. It uses a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model all likelihoods' parameters as latent functions drawn from a Gaussian process with a linear model of coregionalisation covariance. By means of an inducing points framework, the model is able to obtain tractable variational bounds amenable to stochastic variational inference. Nonetheless, the strong conditioning between the variational parameters and the hyper-parameters burdens the ad…
University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Academia Sinica（中央研究院）；Taiwan AI Labs（台湾人工智能实验室）
Recent years have seen adversarial losses been applied to many fields. Their applications extend beyond the originally proposed generative modeling to conditional generative and discriminative settings. While prior work has proposed various output activation functions and regularization approaches, some open questions still remain unanswered. In this paper, we aim to study the following two research questions: 1) What types of output activation functions form a well-behaved adversarial loss? 2) How different combinations of output activation functions and regularization approaches perform empi…
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of California, Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）；UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and jointly treats both the distributions of the inducing variables and hyper-parameters as variational parameters. Then we propose structured variable distributions and marginalize latent variables, which enables the decomposability of a tractable variational lower bound and leads to stochastic optimization. Our inference approach is able to model data in which ou…
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in all likelihoods as latent functions. Our multi-output Gaussian process uses a covariance function with a linear model of coregionalisation form. Assuming conditional independence across the underlying latent functions together with an inducing variable framework, we are able to obtain tractable variational bounds amenable to stochastic variational inference…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国理工学院）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）
While a typical supervised learning framework assumes that the inputs and the outputs are measured at the same levels of granularity, many applications, including global mapping of disease, only have access to outputs at a much coarser level than that of the inputs. Aggregation of outputs makes generalization to new inputs much more difficult. We consider an approach to this problem based on variational learning with a model of output aggregation and Gaussian processes, where aggregation leads to intractability of the standard evidence lower bounds. We propose new bounds and tractable approxim…
This paper demonstrates that a simple modification of the variational autoencoder (VAE) formalism enables the method to identify and classify rotated and distorted digits. In particular, the conventional objective (cost) function employed during the training process of a VAE both quantifies the agreement between the input and output data records and ensures that the latent space representation of the input data record is statistically generated with an appropriate mean and standard deviation. After training, simulated data realizations are generated by decoding appropriate latent space points.…
Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Siemens AG（西门子股份公司）；University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）
We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines introduced by the underlying latent and turbulent wind field. The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes. We present an efficient variational approximation based on nested vari…
Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；Ecole Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；Palaiseau, FRANCE（帕莱索，法国（注：此为地址信息，按要求不应提取，此处原HTML可能存在格式错误，正确机构应为前两个））
In the original version of the Variational Autoencoder, Kingma et al. assume Gaussian distributions for the approximate posterior during the inference and for the output during the generative process. This assumptions are good for computational reasons, e.g. we can easily optimize the parameters of a neural network using the reparametrization trick and the KL divergence between two Gaussians can be computed in closed form. However it results in blurry images due to its difficulty to represent multimodal distributions. We show that using two adversarial networks, we can optimize the parameters …
We propose a variational Bayesian inference procedure for online nonlinear system identification. For each output observation, a set of parameter posterior distributions is updated, which is then used to form a posterior predictive distribution for future outputs. We focus on the class of polynomial NARMAX models, which we cast into probabilistic form and represent in terms of a Forney-style factor graph. Inference in this graph is efficiently performed by a variational message passing algorithm. We show empirically that our variational Bayesian estimator outperforms an online recursive least-…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Warwick University（华威大学）
Large, multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets are omnipresent in modern science and engineering. An effective framework for handling such data are Gaussian process deep generative models (GP-DGMs), which employ GP priors over the latent variables of DGMs. Existing approaches for performing inference in GP-DGMs do not support sparse GP approximations based on inducing points, which are essential for the computational efficiency of GPs, nor do they handle missing data -- a natural occurrence in many spatio-temporal datasets -- in a principled manner. We address these shortcomings with the de…
Cyprus University of Technology（塞浦路斯理工大学）；University of Patras（帕特雷大学）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
Memory-efficient continuous Sign Language Translation is a significant challenge for the development of assisted technologies with real-time applicability for the deaf. In this work, we introduce a paradigm of designing recurrent deep networks whereby the output of the recurrent layer is derived from appropriate arguments from nonparametric statistics. A novel variational Bayesian sequence-to-sequence network architecture is proposed that consists of a) a full Gaussian posterior distribution for data-driven memory compression and b) a nonparametric Indian Buffet Process prior for regularizatio…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
We propose a new variational family for Bayesian neural networks. We decompose the variational posterior into two components, where the radial component captures the strength of each neuron in terms of its magnitude; while the directional component captures the statistical dependencies among the weight parameters. The dependencies learned via the directional density provide better modeling performance compared to the widely-used Gaussian mean-field-type variational family. In addition, the strength of input and output neurons learned via the radial density provides a structured way to compress…
Multi-label classification is the challenging task of predicting the presence and absence of multiple targets, involving representation learning and label correlation modeling. We propose a novel framework for multi-label classification, Multivariate Probit Variational AutoEncoder (MPVAE), that effectively learns latent embedding spaces as well as label correlations. MPVAE learns and aligns two probabilistic embedding spaces for labels and features respectively. The decoder of MPVAE takes in the samples from the embedding spaces and models the joint distribution of output targets under a Multi…
To characterize a physical system to behave as desired, either its underlying governing rules must be known a priori or the system itself be accurately measured. The complexity of full measurements of the system scales with its size. When exposed to real-world conditions, such as perturbations or time-varying settings, the system calibrated for a fixed working condition might require non-trivial re-calibration, a process that could be prohibitively expensive, inefficient and impractical for real-world use cases. In this work, we propose a learning procedure to obtain a desired target output fr…
Deep kernel learning combines the non-parametric flexibility of kernel methods with the inductive biases of deep learning architectures. We propose a novel deep kernel learning model and stochastic variational inference procedure which generalizes deep kernel learning approaches to enable classification, multi-task learning, additive covariance structures, and stochastic gradient training. Specifically, we apply additive base kernels to subsets of output features from deep neural architectures, and jointly learn the parameters of the base kernels and deep network through a Gaussian process mar…
Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference, and it has been recently applied for representation learning with deep generative models. We develop the variational Gaussian process (VGP), a Bayesian nonparametric variational family, which adapts its shape to match complex posterior distributions. The VGP generates approximate posterior samples by generating latent inputs and warping them through random non-linear mappings; the distribution over random mappings is learned during inference, enabling the transformed outputs to adapt to varying complexity. We prove a universal…
TU Kaiserslautern（凯泽斯劳滕工业大学）；MindGarage；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；NeuralSpace；Luleå University of Technology（吕勒奥理工大学）
We introduce a novel uncertainty estimation for classification tasks for Bayesian convolutional neural networks with variational inference. By normalizing the output of a Softplus function in the final layer, we estimate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a coherent manner. The intractable posterior probability distributions over weights are inferred by Bayes by Backprop. Firstly, we demonstrate how this reliable variational inference method can serve as a fundamental construct for various network architectures. On multiple datasets in supervised learning settings (MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-1…
For planning of power systems and for the calibration of operational tools, it is essential to analyse system performance in a large range of representative scenarios. When the available historical data is limited, generative models are a promising solution, but modelling high-dimensional dependencies is challenging. In this paper, a multivariate load state generating model on the basis of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network is proposed. Going beyond common CVAE implementations, the model includes stochastic variation of output samples under given latent vectors and co-…
Permutation invariant multi-output Gaussian Processes for drug combination prediction in cancer
MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学医学研究委员会生物统计学单元）；Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology (OCBE), University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学奥斯陆生物统计学与流行病学中心）；Broad Institute of MIT & Harvard（麻省理工学院与哈佛大学博德研究所）；CRUK Cambridge Centre Ovarian Programme（英国癌症研究剑桥中心卵巢项目）；Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease (CITIID)（剑桥治疗免疫学与传染病研究所）
Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）；Illinois Institute of Technology（伊利诺伊理工学院）
We introduce a deep learning method to simulate the motion of particles trapped in a chaotic recirculating flame. The Lagrangian trajectories of particles, captured using a high-speed camera and subsequently reconstructed in 3-dimensional space, were used to train a variational autoencoder (VAE) which comprises multiple layers of convolutional neural networks. We show that the trajectories, which are statistically representative of those determined in experiments, can be generated using the VAE network. The performance of our model is evaluated with respect to the accuracy and generalization o…
Variational autoencoders employ an amortized inference model to approximate the posterior of latent variables. However, such amortized variational inference faces two challenges: (1) the limited posterior expressiveness of fully-factorized Gaussian assumption and (2) the amortization error of the inference model. We present a novel approach that addresses both challenges. First, we focus on ReLU networks with Gaussian output and illustrate their connection to probabilistic PCA. Building on this observation, we derive an iterative algorithm that finds the mode of the posterior and apply full-co…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular class of deep generative models with many variants and a wide range of applications. Improvements upon the standard VAE mostly focus on the modelling of the posterior distribution over the latent space and the properties of the neural network decoder. In contrast, improving the model for the observational distribution is rarely considered and typically defaults to a pixel-wise independent categorical or normal distribution. In image synthesis, sampling from such distributions produces spatially-incoherent results with uncorrelated pixel noise, resu…
Rice University（莱斯大学）；Northwestern University（西北大学）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；OpenStax
We propose VarFA, a variational inference factor analysis framework that extends existing factor analysis models for educational data mining to efficiently output uncertainty estimation in the model's estimated factors. Such uncertainty information is useful, for example, for an adaptive testing scenario, where additional tests can be administered if the model is not quite certain about a students' skill level estimation. Traditional Bayesian inference methods that produce such uncertainty information are computationally expensive and do not scale to large data sets. VarFA utilizes variational…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Humboldt Universität zu Berlin（柏林洪堡大学）
We propose Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model (VHVM) -- an end-to-end neural network architecture capable of modelling heteroscedastic behaviour in multivariate financial time series. VHVM leverages recent advances in several areas of deep learning, namely sequential modelling and representation learning, to model complex temporal dynamics between different asset returns. At its core, VHVM consists of a variational autoencoder to capture relationships between assets, and a recurrent neural network to model the time-evolution of these dependencies. The outputs of VHVM are time-varying…
Applied Artificial Intelligence Institute (A2I2), Deakin University（应用人工智能研究所（A2I2），迪肯大学）
We propose two generic methods for improving semi-supervised learning (SSL). The first integrates weight perturbation (WP) into existing "consistency regularization" (CR) based methods. We implement WP by leveraging variational Bayesian inference (VBI). The second method proposes a novel consistency loss called "maximum uncertainty regularization" (MUR). While most consistency losses act on perturbations in the vicinity of each data point, MUR actively searches for "virtual" points situated beyond this region that cause the most uncertain class predictions. This allows MUR to impose smoothness…
Samsung AI Center（三星人工智能中心）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
Variational autoencoder (VAE) is a very successful generative model whose key element is the so called amortized inference network, which can perform test time inference using a single feed forward pass. Unfortunately, this comes at the cost of degraded accuracy in posterior approximation, often underperforming the instance-wise variational optimization. Although the latest semi-amortized approaches mitigate the issue by performing a few variational optimization updates starting from the VAE's amortized inference output, they inherently suffer from computational overhead for inference at test …
Vector quantised variational autoencoders (VQ-VAE) are characterised by three main components: 1) encoding visual data, 2) assigning $k$ different vectors in the so-called embedding space, and 3) decoding the learnt features. While images are often represented in RGB colour space, the specific organisation of colours in other spaces also offer interesting features, e.g. CIE L*a*b* decorrelates chromaticity into opponent axes. In this article, we propose colour space conversion, a simple quasi-unsupervised task, to enforce a network learning structured representations. To this end, we trained s…
Seoul National University（首尔国立大学）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
This paper proposes a new high dimensional regression method by merging Gaussian process regression into a variational autoencoder framework. In contrast to other regression methods, the proposed method focuses on the case where output responses are on a complex high dimensional manifold, such as images. Our contributions are summarized as follows: (i) A new regression method estimating high dimensional image responses, which is not handled by existing regression algorithms, is proposed. (ii) The proposed regression method introduces a strategy to learn the latent space as well as the encoder …
This study provides both analysis and a refined, research-ready implementation of Tang and Kucukelbir's Variational Deep Q Network, a novel approach to maximising the efficiency of exploration in complex learning environments using Variational Bayesian Inference. Alongside reference implementations of both Traditional and Double Deep Q Networks, a small novel contribution is presented - the Double Variational Deep Q Network, which incorporates improvements to increase the stability and robustness of inference-based learning. Finally, an evaluation and discussion of the effectiveness of these a…
Previous work explored blending levels from existing games to create levels for a new game that mixes properties of the original games. In this paper, we use Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) for improving upon such techniques. VAEs are artificial neural networks that learn and use latent representations of datasets to generate novel outputs. We train a VAE on level data from Super Mario Bros. and Kid Icarus, enabling it to capture the latent space spanning both games. We then use this space to generate level segments that combine properties of levels from both games. Moreover, by applying evolu…
