This paper proposes a new high dimensional regression method by merging Gaussian process regression into a variational autoencoder framework. In contrast to other regression methods, the proposed method focuses on the case where output responses are on a complex high dimensional manifold, such as images. Our contributions are summarized as follows: (i) A new regression method estimating high dimensional image responses, which is not handled by existing regression algorithms, is proposed. (ii) The proposed regression method introduces a strategy to learn the latent space as well as the encoder and decoder so that the result of the regressed response in the latent space coincide with the corresponding response in the data space. (iii) The proposed regression is embedded into a generative model, and the whole procedure is developed by the variational autoencoder framework. We demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our method through a number of experiments on various visual data regression problems.
Although the expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm was introduced in 1970, it remains somewhat inaccessible to machine learning practitioners due to its obscure notation, terse proofs and lack of concrete links to modern machine learning techniques like autoencoded variational Bayes. This has resulted in gaps in the AI literature concerning the meaning of such concepts like "latent variables" and "variational lower bound," which are frequently used but often not clearly explained. The roots of these ideas lie in the EM algorithm. We first give a tutorial presentation of the EM algorithm for …
In the U.S., corn is the most produced crop and has been an essential part of the American diet. To meet the demand for supply chain management and regional food security, accurate and timely large-scale corn yield prediction is attracting more attention in precision agriculture. Recently, remote sensing technology and machine learning methods have been widely explored for crop yield prediction. Currently, most county-level yield prediction models use county-level mean variables for prediction, ignoring much detailed information. Moreover, inconsistent spatial resolution between crop area and …
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Google Inc.（谷歌公司）
High-level manipulation of facial expressions in images --- such as changing a smile to a neutral expression --- is challenging because facial expression changes are highly non-linear, and vary depending on the appearance of the face. We present a fully automatic approach to editing faces that combines the advantages of flow-based face manipulation with the more recent generative capabilities of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). During training, our model learns to encode the flow from one expression to another over a low-dimensional latent space. At test time, expression editing can be done si…
University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）；Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；Sheffield, UK（英国谢菲尔德）
This paper introduces a method to approximate Gaussian process regression by representing the problem as a stochastic differential equation and using variational inference to approximate solutions. The approximations are compared with full GP regression and generated paths are demonstrated to be indistinguishable from GP samples. We show that the approach extends easily to non-linear dynamics and discuss extensions to which the approach can be easily applied.
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Bogazici University（海峡大学）
We present the development of a semi-supervised regression method using variational autoencoders (VAE), which is customized for use in soft sensing applications. We motivate the use of semi-supervised learning considering the fact that process quality variables are not collected at the same frequency as other process variables leading to many unlabelled records in operational datasets. These unlabelled records are not possible to use for training quality variable predictions based on supervised learning methods. Use of VAEs for unsupervised learning is well established and recently they were u…
University of Utah（犹他大学）；School of Computing（计算学院）；Scientific Computing and Imaging Institute（科学计算与成像研究所）
Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such structures) over all the outputs and latent functions for posterior approximation, which, however, can miss the strong posterior dependencies among the latent variables and hurt the inference quality. In addition, the updates of the variational parameters are inefficient and can be prohibitively expensive for a large number of outputs. To overcome these limitations…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab（麻省理工学院-IBM沃森人工智能实验室）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
This paper presents a novel variational inference framework for deriving a family of Bayesian sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models whose approximations are variationally optimal with respect to the full-rank GPR model enriched with various corresponding correlation structures of the observation noises. Our variational Bayesian SGPR (VBSGPR) models jointly treat both the distributions of the inducing variables and hyperparameters as variational parameters, which enables the decomposability of the variational lower bound that in turn can be exploited for stochastic optimization. Such…
While unsupervised variational autoencoders (VAE) have become a powerful tool in neuroimage analysis, their application to supervised learning is under-explored. We aim to close this gap by proposing a unified probabilistic model for learning the latent space of imaging data and performing supervised regression. Based on recent advances in learning disentangled representations, the novel generative process explicitly models the conditional distribution of latent representations with respect to the regression target variable. Performing a variational inference procedure on this model leads to j…
Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad（印度理工学院海得拉巴分校）；RIKEN Center for AI Project（理化学研究所人工智能项目中心）
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are multi-layer, flexible extensions of Gaussian processes but their training remains challenging. Sparse approximations simplify the training but often require optimization over a large number of inducing inputs and their locations across layers. In this paper, we simplify the training by setting the locations to a fixed subset of data and sampling the inducing inputs from a variational distribution. This reduces the trainable parameters and computation cost without significant performance degradations, as demonstrated by our empirical results on regression prob…
Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) use learning-enabled components (LECs) extensively to cope with various complex tasks under high-uncertainty environments. However, the dataset shifts between the training and testing phase may lead the LECs to become ineffective to make large-error predictions, and further, compromise the safety of the overall system. In our paper, we first provide the formal definitions for different types of dataset shifts in learning-enabled CPS. Then, we propose an approach to detect the dataset shifts effectively for regression problems. Our approach is based on the inductiv…
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of California, Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）；UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and jointly treats both the distributions of the inducing variables and hyper-parameters as variational parameters. Then we propose structured variable distributions and marginalize latent variables, which enables the decomposability of a tractable variational lower bound and leads to stochastic optimization. Our inference approach is able to model data in which ou…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates, robustness to over-fitting, and principled ways for tuning hyper-parameters. However the scalability of these models to big datasets remains an active topic of research. We introduce a novel re-parametrisation of variational inference for sparse GP regression and latent variable models that allows for an efficient distributed algorithm. This is done by exploiting …
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Shenzhen University（深圳大学）
This paper presents a variational Bayesian kernel selection (VBKS) algorithm for sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models. In contrast to existing GP kernel selection algorithms that aim to select only one kernel with the highest model evidence, our proposed VBKS algorithm considers the kernel as a random variable and learns its belief from data such that the uncertainty of the kernel can be interpreted and exploited to avoid overconfident GP predictions. To achieve this, we represent the probabilistic kernel as an additional variational variable in a variational inference (VI) framewo…
Learning-enabled components (LECs) are widely used in cyber-physical systems (CPS) since they can handle the uncertainty and variability of the environment and increase the level of autonomy. However, it has been shown that LECs such as deep neural networks (DNN) are not robust and adversarial examples can cause the model to make a false prediction. The paper considers the problem of efficiently detecting adversarial examples in LECs used for regression in CPS. The proposed approach is based on inductive conformal prediction and uses a regression model based on variational autoencoder. The arc…
We develop a novel probabilistic generative model based on the variational autoencoder approach. Notable aspects of our architecture are: a novel way of specifying the latent variables prior, and the introduction of an ordinality enforcing unit. We describe how to do supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning, and nominal and ordinal classification, with the model. We analyze generative properties of the approach, and the classification effectiveness under nominal and ordinal classification, using two benchmark datasets. Our results show that our model can achieve comparable results…
Gaussian process regression is increasingly applied for learning unknown dynamical systems. In particular, the implicit quantification of the uncertainty of the learned model makes it a promising approach for safety-critical applications. When using Gaussian process regression to learn unknown systems, a commonly considered approach consists of learning the residual dynamics after applying some generic discretization technique, which might however disregard properties of the underlying physical system. Variational integrators are a less common yet promising approach to discretization, as they …
One major drawback of state-of-the-art artificial intelligence is its lack of explainability. One approach to solve the problem is taking causality into account. Causal mechanisms can be described by structural causal models. In this work, we propose a method for estimating bivariate structural causal models using a combination of normalising flows applied to density estimation and variational Gaussian process regression for post-nonlinear models. It facilitates causal discovery, i.e. distinguishing cause and effect, by either the independence of cause and residual or a likelihood ratio test. …
Excellent variational approximations to Gaussian process posteriors have been developed which avoid the $\mathcal{O}\left(N^3\right)$ scaling with dataset size $N$. They reduce the computational cost to $\mathcal{O}\left(NM^2\right)$, with $M\ll N$ being the number of inducing variables, which summarise the process. While the computational cost seems to be linear in $N$, the true complexity of the algorithm depends on how $M$ must increase to ensure a certain quality of approximation. We address this by characterising the behavior of an upper bound on the KL divergence to the posterior. We sho…
Interactive Digital Media Institute（互动数字媒体研究所）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）
While much research effort has been dedicated to scaling up sparse Gaussian process (GP) models based on inducing variables for big data, little attention is afforded to the other less explored class of low-rank GP approximations that exploit the sparse spectral representation of a GP kernel. This paper presents such an effort to advance the state of the art of sparse spectrum GP models to achieve competitive predictive performance for massive datasets. Our generalized framework of stochastic variational Bayesian sparse spectrum GP (sVBSSGP) models addresses their shortcomings by adopting a Ba…
Amortized Variational Inference for Logistic Regression with Missing Covariates
Lab. Traitement du signal, Ecole Militaire Polytechnique, BP 17 Bordj El Bahri, Algeria（信号处理实验室，军事理工大学，BP 17 Bordj El Bahri，阿尔及利亚）；Lab. d'Informatique de Grenoble, CNRS, France（格勒诺布尔信息实验室，法国国家科学研究中心，法国）；University of Paris Saclay, CNRS, CentraleSupelec, Laboratoire des signaux et systèmes, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France（巴黎萨克雷大学，法国国家科学研究中心，中央超导电子学学院，信号与系统实验室，91190，法国）
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Brookhaven National Laboratory（布鲁克海文国家实验室）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）
We employ variational autoencoders to extract physical insight from a dataset of one-particle Anderson impurity model spectral functions. Autoencoders are trained to find a low-dimensional, latent space representation that faithfully characterizes each element of the training set, as measured by a reconstruction error. Variational autoencoders, a probabilistic generalization of standard autoencoders, further condition the learned latent space to promote highly interpretable features. In our study, we find that the learned latent variables strongly correlate with well known, but nontrivial, par…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）
Gaussian processes with derivative information are useful in many settings where derivative information is available, including numerous Bayesian optimization and regression tasks that arise in the natural sciences. Incorporating derivative observations, however, comes with a dominating $O(N^3D^3)$ computational cost when training on $N$ points in $D$ input dimensions. This is intractable for even moderately sized problems. While recent work has addressed this intractability in the low-$D$ setting, the high-$N$, high-$D$ setting is still unexplored and of great value, particularly as machine l…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；New York Genome Center（纽约基因组中心）
Brittle optimization has been observed to adversely impact model likelihoods for regression and VAEs when simultaneously fitting neural network mappings from a (random) variable onto the mean and variance of a dependent Gaussian variable. Previous works have bolstered optimization and improved likelihoods, but fail other basic posterior predictive checks (PPCs). Under the PPC framework, we propose critiques to test predictive mean and variance calibration and the predictive distribution's ability to generate sensible data. We find that our attractively simple solution, to treat heteroscedastic…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
Gaussian processes are distributions over functions that are versatile and mathematically convenient priors in Bayesian modelling. However, their use is often impeded for data with large numbers of observations, $N$, due to the cubic (in $N$) cost of matrix operations used in exact inference. Many solutions have been proposed that rely on $M \ll N$ inducing variables to form an approximation at a cost of $\mathcal{O}(NM^2)$. While the computational cost appears linear in $N$, the true complexity depends on how $M$ must scale with $N$ to ensure a certain quality of the approximation. In this wo…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；TTI-Chicago（芝加哥丰田技术研究所）；Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）
We propose an efficient optimization algorithm for selecting a subset of training data to induce sparsity for Gaussian process regression. The algorithm estimates an inducing set and the hyperparameters using a single objective, either the marginal likelihood or a variational free energy. The space and time complexity are linear in training set size, and the algorithm can be applied to large regression problems on discrete or continuous domains. Empirical evaluation shows state-of-art performance in discrete cases and competitive results in the continuous case.
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a powerful framework for extrapolation, interpolation, and noise removal in regression and classification. This paper considers constraining GPs to arbitrarily-shaped domains with boundary conditions. We solve a Fourier-like generalised harmonic feature representation of the GP prior in the domain of interest, which both constrains the GP and attains a low-rank representation that is used for speeding up inference. The method scales as $\mathcal{O}(nm^2)$ in prediction and $\mathcal{O}(m^3)$ in hyperparameter learning for regression, where $n$ is the number of …
Amazon Web Services（亚马逊网络服务公司）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Los Angeles, CA, USA（美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶）
Estimation of uncertainty in deep learning models is of vital importance, especially in medical imaging, where reliance on inference without taking into account uncertainty could lead to misdiagnosis. Recently, the probabilistic Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) has become a popular model for anomaly detection in applications such as lesion detection in medical images. The VAE is a generative graphical model that is used to learn the data distribution from samples and then generate new samples from this distribution. By training on normal samples, the VAE can be used to detect inputs that deviate …
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
We propose a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood of Gaussian process regression models that can be computed without matrix factorisation of the full kernel matrix. We show that approximate maximum likelihood learning of model parameters by maximising our lower bound retains many of the sparse variational approach benefits while reducing the bias introduced into parameter learning. The basis of our bound is a more careful analysis of the log-determinant term appearing in the log marginal likelihood, as well as using the method of conjugate gradients to derive tight lower bounds on the te…
Heteroscedastic regression considering the varying noises among observations has many applications in the fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates the latent function and the noise function together in a unified non-parametric Bayesian framework. Though showing remarkable performance, HGP suffers from the cubic time complexity, which strictly limits its application to big data. To improve the scalability, we first develop a variational sparse inference algorithm, named VSHGP, to handle large-scale datas…
Quantile Regression, Variational Autoencoders, and Diffusion Models for Uncertainty Quantification: A Spatial Analysis of Sub-seasonal Wind Speed Prediction
HSE University（高等经济大学）；National University of Science and Technology MISIS（国立科技研究大学（MISIS））；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Constructor University（康斯特拉克特大学）
There are many problems in physics, biology, and other natural sciences in which symbolic regression can provide valuable insights and discover new laws of nature. A widespread Deep Neural Networks do not provide interpretable solutions. Meanwhile, symbolic expressions give us a clear relation between observations and the target variable. However, at the moment, there is no dominant solution for the symbolic regression task, and we aim to reduce this gap with our algorithm. In this work, we propose a novel deep learning framework for symbolic expression generation via variational autoencoder (…
Athens University of Economics and Business（雅典经济与商业大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
We develop unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI), a method that expands the applicability of variational inference by defining an expressive variational family. UIVI considers an implicit variational distribution obtained in a hierarchical manner using a simple reparameterizable distribution whose variational parameters are defined by arbitrarily flexible deep neural networks. Unlike previous works, UIVI directly optimizes the evidence lower bound (ELBO) rather than an approximation to the ELBO. We demonstrate UIVI on several models, including Bayesian multinomial logistic regression …
Computational design optimization in fluid dynamics usually requires to solve non-linear partial differential equations numerically. In this work, we explore a Bayesian optimization approach to minimize an object's drag coefficient in laminar flow based on predicting drag directly from the object shape. Jointly training an architecture combining a variational autoencoder mapping shapes to latent representations and Gaussian process regression allows us to generate improved shapes in the two dimensional case we consider.
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
Variational Gaussian process (GP) approximations have become a standard tool in fast GP inference. This technique requires a user to select variational features to increase efficiency. So far the common choices in the literature are disparate and lacking generality. We propose to view the GP as lying in a Banach space which then facilitates a unified perspective. This is used to understand the relationship between existing features and to draw a connection between kernel ridge regression and variational GP approximations.
Towards aerodynamic surrogate modeling based on $β$-variational autoencoders
Theoretical and Computational Aerodynamics Branch, Spanish National Institute for Aerospace Technology (INTA)（西班牙航空航天技术国家研究所理论与计算空气动力学分支）；Subdirectorate General of Terrestrial Systems, Spanish National Institute for Aerospace Technology (INTA)（西班牙航空航天技术国家研究所陆地系统总处）；Department of Aerospace Engineering, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学航空航天工程系）
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；Microsoft Research New England（微软新英格兰研究院）；New York University（纽约大学）
We introduce a new scalable variational Gaussian process approximation which provides a high fidelity approximation while retaining general applicability. We propose the harmonic kernel decomposition (HKD), which uses Fourier series to decompose a kernel as a sum of orthogonal kernels. Our variational approximation exploits this orthogonality to enable a large number of inducing points at a low computational cost. We demonstrate that, on a range of regression and classification problems, our approach can exploit input space symmetries such as translations and reflections, and it significantly …
This work introduces the concept of parametric Gaussian processes (PGPs), which is built upon the seemingly self-contradictory idea of making Gaussian processes parametric. Parametric Gaussian processes, by construction, are designed to operate in "big data" regimes where one is interested in quantifying the uncertainty associated with noisy data. The proposed methodology circumvents the well-established need for stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated using an illustrative exam…
High-Dimensional Gaussian Process Regression with Soft Kernel Interpolation
Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology（计算与数学科学部，加州理工学院）；Department of Computer Science, San Francisco State University（计算机科学部，旧金山州立大学）；Base26, CA, USA
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
Deep regression is an important problem with numerous applications. These range from computer vision tasks such as age estimation from photographs, to medical tasks such as ejection fraction estimation from echocardiograms for disease tracking. Semi-supervised approaches for deep regression are notably under-explored compared to classification and segmentation tasks, however. Unlike classification tasks, which rely on thresholding functions for generating class pseudo-labels, regression tasks use real number target predictions directly as pseudo-labels, making them more sensitive to prediction…
Erasmus University Rotterdam（鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method can be used to approximate any posterior distribution, provided that it is given in closed form up to the proportionality constant. The approximation can be any distribution in the exponential family or any mixture of such distributions, which means that it can be made arbitrarily precise. Several examples illustrate the speed and accuracy of our approximation…
Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；University of Technology, Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Xiamen University（厦门大学）
It remains a challenge to simultaneously remove geometric distortion and space-time-varying blur in frames captured through a turbulent atmospheric medium. To solve, or at least reduce these effects, we propose a new scheme to recover a latent image from observed frames by integrating a new variational model and distortion-driven spatial-temporal kernel regression. The proposed scheme first constructs a high-quality reference image from the observed frames using low-rank decomposition. Then, to generate an improved registered sequence, the reference image is iteratively optimized using a varia…
