通货膨胀目标制策略及其可信度
Inflation targeting strategy and its credibility
摘要：
如果货币政策策略是通货膨胀和利率目标制，那么货币供给是内生的。有了这一点和完美的可信度，价格水平和通货膨胀理论只需要费雪方程，但它以一种新的意义解释因果关系：如果货币当局提高政策利率，它将提高通货膨胀目标，反之亦然，给定自然利率。如果可信度不是完美的，或者预期不是完全理性的，那么这个理论就需要更多的东西。在这里，我提出了一个模型，对应于这个理论，包括稳态的情况下，并在供应冲击后的复苏动态，有和没有政策反应，这样的冲击。但是，在IRT的有限视野假设下，在未来的某个时间点，货币供应必须成为外生的。这就促使代理人审查迄今为止的货币总量统计数据，并形成对货币供应增长和通货膨胀率的预测。此外，小型开放经济体的通货膨胀模型使我们能够推断出，在这种情况下，IRT比其他情况下更强大，并且具有相同的可信度。但对货币当局来说，事情并不一定容易：它不仅要监控内部指标，还要监控外部通胀及其决定因素，而且在某些情况下，它必须对利率进行更剧烈的调整。
英文摘要：
The money supply is endogenous if the monetary policy strategy is the so called Inflation and Interest Rate Targeting, IRT. With that and perfect credibility, the theory of the price level and inflation only needs the Fisher equation, but it interprets causality in a new sense: if the monetary authority raises the policy rate, it will raise the inflation target, and vice versa, given the natural interest rate. If credibility is not perfect or if expectations are not completely rational, the theory needs something more. Here I present a model corresponding to this theory that includes both the steady state case and the recovery dynamics after a supply shock, with and without policy reactions to such a shock. But, under the finite horizon assumption for IRT, at some future point in time the money supply must become exogenous. This creates the incentive for agents to examine, as of today, statistics on monetary aggregates and form their forecasts of money supply growth and inflation rates. Additionally, inflation models of the small open economy allow us to deduce that the IRT in this case is much more powerful than otherwise, and for the same degree of credibility. But things are not necessarily easier for the monetary authority: it must monitor not only internal indicators, but also external inflation and its determinants, and it must, in certain circumstances, make more intense adjustments to the interest rate.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
