赢得选举的机会对社交媒体策略的影响
The Chance of Winning Election Impacts on Social Media Strategy
AI总结：
研究分析候选人推文发现，随着获胜机会增加，候选人会缩小沟通对象，从普通大众转向选区和特定个人，为竞选策略提供新见解。
摘要：
社交媒体已成为政治行为者进行选举竞选的重要舞台。尽管许多研究关注与党派偏见相关的政治竞选，但政治家也可以根据获胜机会开展不同的竞选活动。例如，领先候选人在选举中的表现与边缘候选人不同，反之亦然。然而，我们对根据选举赔率在社交媒体政治竞选策略上的这种差异知之甚少。我们通过分析候选人的推文（涉及用户、主题和回复的情感）来解决这个问题。我们的研究发现，随着获胜机会的增加，候选人会缩小其沟通对象，从普通大众转向选区和特定个人（经过验证的账户或拥有大量粉丝的账户）。我们的研究基于候选人选举形势这一新颖视角的分析，为候选人的竞选策略带来了新见解。
英文摘要：
Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
