In this article, we discuss a bivariate distribution whose conditionals are univariate binomial distributions and the marginals are not binomial that exhibits negative correlation. Some useful structural properties of this distribution namely marginals, moments, generating functions, stochastic ordering are investigated. Simple proofs of negative correlation, marginal over-dispersion, distribution of sum and conditional given the sum are also derived. The distribution is shown to be a member of the multi-parameter exponential family and some natural but useful consequences are also outlined. The proposed distribution tends to a recently investigated conditional Poisson distribution studied by Ghosh et al. (2020). Finally, the distribution is fitted to two bivariate count data sets with an inherent negative correlation to illustrate its suitability.
The current statistical procedures implemented in statistical software packages for pooling of diagnostic test accuracy data include hSROC regression and the bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model (BRMA). However, these models do not report the overall mean but rather the mean for a central study with random-effect equal to zero and have difficulties estimating the correlation between sensitivity and specificity when the number of studies in the meta-analysis is small and/or when the between-study variance is relatively large. This tutorial on advanced statistical methods for meta-analys…
Novel Stein-type Characterizations of Bivariate Count Distributions with Applications
School of Mathematics, South China University of Technology（华南理工大学数学学院）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Helmut Schmidt University（赫尔穆特·施密特大学数学与统计系）
Bivariate meta-analysis provides a useful framework for combining information across related studies and has been utilised to combine evidence from clinical studies to evaluate treatment efficacy on two outcomes. It has also been used to investigate surrogacy patterns between treatment effects on the surrogate endpoint and the final outcome. Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. The standard bivariate meta-analytic approach models the observed …
The paper considers the problem of establishing data support for the simplifying assumption (SA) in a bivariate conditional copula model. It is known that SA greatly simplifies the inference for a conditional copula model, but standard tools and methods for testing SA tend to not provide reliable results. After splitting the observed data into training and test sets, the method proposed will use a flexible training data Bayesian fit to define tests based on randomization and standard asymptotic theory. Theoretical justification for the method is provided and its performance is studied using si…
The beta distribution is a basic distribution serving several purposes. It is used to model data, and also, as a more flexible version of the uniform distribution, it serves as a prior distribution for a binomial probability. The bivariate beta distribution plays a similar role for two probabilities that have a bivariate binomial distribution. We provide a new multivariate distribution with beta marginal distributions, positive probability over the unit square, and correlations over the full range. We discuss its extension to three or more dimensions.
In this article we introduce a three-parameter extension of the bivariate exponential-geometric (BEG) law (Kozubowski and Panorska, 2005). We refer to this new distribution as bivariate gamma-geometric (BGG) law. A bivariate random vector $(X,N)$ follows BGG law if $N$ has geometric distribution and $X$ may be represented (in law) as a sum of $N$ independent and identically distributed gamma variables, where these variables are independent of $N$. Statistical properties such as moment generation and characteristic functions, moments and variance-covariance matrix are provided. The marginal and…
Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an important role in modeling such data. In this article, we consider the inferential aspect of a bivariate Poisson conditionals distribution for which both the conditionals are Poisson but the marginals are typically non-Poisson. It has Poisson marginals only in the case of independence. It appears that a simple iterative procedure under the maximum likelihood method …
The bivariate distribution with exponential conditionals (BEC) is introduced by Arnold and Strauss [Bivariate distributions with exponential conditionals, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83 (1988) 522--527]. This work presents a simple and fast algorithm for simulating random variates from this density.
Little attention has been given to the correlation coefficient when data come from discrete or continuous non-normal populations. In this article, we consider the efficiency of two correlation coefficients which are from the same family, Pearson's and Spearman's estimators. Two discrete bivariate distributions were examined: the Poisson and the Negative Binomial. The comparison between these two estimators took place using classical and bootstrap techniques for the construction of confidence intervals. Thus, these techniques are also subject to comparison. Simulation studies were also used for…
We propose a novel flexible bivariate conditional Poisson (BCP) INteger-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model for correlated count time series data. Our proposed BCP-INGARCH model is mathematically tractable and has as the main advantage over existing bivariate INGARCH models its ability to capture a broad range (both negative and positive) of contemporaneous cross-correlation which is a non-trivial advancement. Properties of stationarity and ergodicity for the BCP-INGARCH process are developed. Estimation of the parameters is performed through condition…
In this paper, we introduce a new class of bivariate distributions called the bivariate exponentiated extended Weibull distributions. The model introduced here is of Marshall-Olkin type. This new class of bivariate distributions contains several bivariate lifetime models. Some mathematical properties of the new class of distributions are studied. We provide the joint and conditional density functions, the joint cumulative distribution function and the joint survival function. Special bivariate distributions are investigated in some detail. The maximum likelihood estimators are obtained using t…
We introduce the bivariate unit-log-symmetric model based on the bivariate log-symmetric distribution (BLS) defined in [Vila et al., 2022, Bivariate Log-symmetric Models: Theoretical Properties and Parameter Estimation. Avaliable at arXiv:2211.13839] as a flexible family of bivariate distributions over the unit square. We then study its mathematical properties such as stochastic representations, quantiles, conditional distributions, independence of the marginal distributions and moments. Maximum likelihood estimation method is discussed and examined through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the…
In this paper we develop a very general class of bivariate discrete distributions. The basic idea is very simple. The marginals are obtained by taking the random geometric sum of a baseline distribution function. The proposed class of distributions is a very flexible class of distributions in the sense the marginals can take variety of shapes. It can be multimodal as well as heavy tailed also. It can be both over dispersed as well as under dispersed. Moreover, the correlation can be of a wide range. We discuss different properties of the proposes class of bivariate distributions. The proposed …
Conditional copulas are flexible statistical tools that couple joint conditional and marginal conditional distributions. In a linear regression setting with more than one covariate and two dependent outcomes, we propose the use of additive models for conditional bivariate copula models and discuss computation and model selection tools for performing Bayesian inference. The method is illustrated using simulations and a real example.
Several bivariate beta distributions have been proposed in the literature. In particular, Olkin and Liu (2003) proposed a 3 parameter bivariate beta model, which Arnold and Ng (2011) extend to 5 and 8 parameter models. The 3 parameter model allows for only positive correlation, while the latter models can accommodate both positive and negative correlation. However, these come at the expense of a density that is mathematically intractable. The focus of this research is on Bayesian estimation for the 5 and 8 parameter models. Since the likelihood does not exist in closed form, we apply approxima…
Vine copulas (or pair-copula constructions) have become an important tool for high-dimensional dependence modeling. Typically, so called simplified vine copula models are estimated where bivariate conditional copulas are approximated by bivariate unconditional copulas. We present the first non-parametric estimator of a non-simplified vine copula that allows for varying conditional copulas using penalized hierarchical B-splines. Throughout the vine copula, we test for the simplifying assumption in each edge, establishing a data-driven non-simplified vine copula estimator. To overcome the curse …
It will be recalled that the classical bivariate normal distributions have normal marginals and normal conditionals. It is natural to ask whether a similar phenomenon can be encountered involving Poisson marginals and conditionals. Reference to Arnold, Castillo and Sarabia's (1999) book on conditionally specified models will confirm that Poisson marginals will be encountered, together with both conditionals being of the Poisson form, only in the case in which the variables are independent. Instead, in the present article we will be focusing on bivariate distributions with one marginal and the …
Nonlinear Modal Interval Regression for Bivariate Data Analysis
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University（东北大学大学院信息科学研究院）；Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya City University（名古屋市立大学大学院医学研究科）
We consider the problem of comparing two Poisson parameters from the Bayesian perspective. Kawasaki and Miyaoka (2012b) proposed the Bayesian index $P(λ_1 < λ_2 | X_1,X_2)$ and expressed it using the hypergeometric series. In this paper, under some conditions, we give four other expressions of the Bayesian index in terms of the cumulative distribution functions of beta, $F$, binomial, and negative binomial distribution. Next, we investigate the relationship between the Bayesian index and the $p$-value of the conditional test with the null hypothesis $H_0: λ_1 \geq λ_2 $ versus an alternative h…
This paper proposes the beta binomial autoregressive moving average model (BBARMA) for modeling quantized amplitude data and bounded count data. The BBARMA model estimates the conditional mean of a beta binomial distributed variable observed over the time by a dynamic structure including: (i) autoregressive and moving average terms; (ii) a set of regressors; and (iii) a link function. Besides introducing the new model, we develop parameter estimation, detection tools, an out-of-signal forecasting scheme, and diagnostic measures. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditi…
Rigby & Stasinopoulos (2005) introduced generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) where the response distribution is not restricted to belong to the exponential family and its parameters can be specified as functions of additive predictors that allows for several types of covariate effects (e.g., linear, non-linear, random and spatial effects). In many empirical situations, however, modeling simultaneously two or more responses conditional on some covariates can be of considerable relevance. In this article, we extend the scope of GAMLSS by introducing a bivariate copu…
Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, it is common to assume that each of these conditional bivariate copulas is independent from its conditioning variables. In this paper, we relax this assumption by discovering the latent functions that specify the shape of a conditional copula given its conditioning variables We le…
Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is proposed via a sparse Gaussian process (GP) prior distribution over the set of smooth calibration functions for the single index model (SIM). The estimation of parameters from the marginal distributions and the calibration function is done jointly via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling from the full posterior distribution. A new Conditional Cross Validated Pseu…
In this article, we analyze perinatal data with birth weight (BW) as primarily interesting response variable. Gestational age (GA) is usually an important covariate and included in polynomial form. However, in opposition to this univariate regression, bivariate modeling of BW and GA is recommended to distinguish effects on each, on both, and between them. Rather than a parametric bivariate distribution, we apply conditional copula regression, where marginal distributions of BW and GA (not necessarily of the same form) can be estimated independently, and where the dependence structure is modele…
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process for count modeling. A draw from the NB process consists of a Poisson distributed finite number of distinct atoms, each of which is associated with a logarithmic distributed number of data samples. We reveal relationships between various count- and mixture-modeling distributions an…
This study considers a new multi-term urn process that has a correlation in the same term and temporal correlation. The objective is to clarify the relationship between the urn model and the Hawkes process. Correlation in the same term is represented by the Pólya urn model and the temporal correlation is incorporated by introducing the conditional initial condition. In the double-scaling limit of this urn process, the self-exciting negative binomial distribution (SE-NBD) process, which is a marked Hawkes process, is obtained. In the standard continuous limit, this process becomes the Hawkes pr…
In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB…
This paper presents the first general (supervised) statistical learning framework for point processes in general spaces. Our approach is based on the combination of two new concepts, which we define in the paper: i) bivariate innovations, which are measures of discrepancy/prediction-accuracy between two point processes, and ii) point process cross-validation (CV), which we here define through point process thinning. The general idea is to carry out the fitting by predicting CV-generated validation sets using the corresponding training sets; the prediction error, which we minimise, is measured …
