来自光变的矮星系活动星系核（DAVOS）：基于光学巡天时域巡天的中等质量黑洞族群统计
Dwarf AGNs from Variability for the Origins of Seeds (DAVOS): Intermediate-mass black hole demographics from optical synoptic surveys
AI总结：
本文通过前向蒙特卡洛模型预测矮星系中活动星系核的光变可观测性，区分不同黑洞种子模型并量化选择偏差，为鲁宾天文台约束中等质量黑洞族群提供方法。
摘要：
我们提出了一个现象学的前向蒙特卡洛模型，用于预测可通过光学光变观测到的矮星系中活动星系核（AGN）的族群。该模型考虑了中等质量黑洞（IMBH）质量范围内活动星系核光谱能量分布的预期变化，并利用光学光变随黑洞（BH）质量变化的观测约束来生成模拟光变曲线。我们采用了几种不同的黑洞占据率模型，其中包括一种针对核外中等质量黑洞的模型，以量化所预测的矮星系中本地活动星系核质量函数和光度函数的差异。由此，我们能够在存在复杂选择效应的情况下，对活动星系核的可变比例作为物理宿主性质（如宿主星系恒星质量）的函数进行建模。我们发现，在维拉·C·鲁宾天文台的观测条件下，对于恒星质量低于约 $10^8 M_\odot$ 的宿主星系，我们所采用的“重”和“轻”初始黑洞种子情形的占据率可以通过光变数据在 $2-3 \sigma$ 水平上加以区分。我们证明了一种选择偏差的普遍存在，即恢复出的中等质量黑洞质量平均高于由本地宿主星系-黑洞质量标度关系所预测的值，且偏差强度依赖于巡天灵敏度。本工作所发展的方法可更广泛地用于预测和校正时域巡天中活动星系核族群研究的选择效应。最后，我们表明，利用鲁宾天文台在几个夜晚进行约每小时一次节奏的定向观测，鉴于中等质量黑洞预期的快速光变时标，可以对其质量提供强有力的约束。
英文摘要：
We present a phenomenological forward Monte Carlo model for forecasting the population of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in dwarf galaxies observable via their optical variability. Our model accounts for expected changes in the spectral energy distribution of AGNs in the intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) mass range and uses observational constraints on optical variability as a function of black hole (BH) mass to generate mock light curves. Adopting several different models for the BH occupation function, including one for off-nuclear IMBHs, we quantify differences in the predicted local AGN mass and luminosity functions in dwarf galaxies. As a result, we are able to model the variable fraction of AGNs as a function of physical host properties, such as host galaxy stellar mass, in the presence of complex selection effects. We find that our adopted occupation fractions for the "heavy" and "light" initial BH seeding scenarios can be distinguished with variability data at the $2-3 σ$ level for galaxy host stellar masses below $\sim 10^8 M_\odot$ with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. We demonstrate the prevalence of a selection bias whereby recovered IMBH masses fall, on average, above the predicted value from the local host galaxy - BH mass scaling relation with the strength of the bias dependent on the survey sensitivity. The methodology developed in this work can be used more broadly to forecast and correct for selection effects for AGN demographic studies in synoptic surveys. Finally, we show that a targeted $\sim$ hourly cadence program over a few nights with the Rubin Observatory can provide strong constraints on IMBH masses given their expected rapid variability timescales.
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