深层天气巡天的变化天空
The Variable Sky of Deep Synoptic Surveys
摘要：
发现变源和瞬变源是天气测量的一个重要成果。警报流将需要根据个性化标准进行过滤--这是一个由通常称为Broker的功能管理的过程。为了从数量上了解警报生成和经纪人任务的规模，我们对天空中数量最多的可变目标-银河系恒星、类星体、活动星系核和小行星-进行了分析。发现LSST在巡天开始时每晚将能发现约10^5颗高纬|b| > 20度变星。(The对于|b| < 20度的相应数量是更大的数量级，但是受到关于消光和拥挤的警告。然而，新发现的数量可能会在两年内下降到每晚100个以下。对GAIA进行的同样分析澄清了GAIA和LSST调查的互补性。据预测，可变星系核（AGN）和类星体（QSO）的发现开始于每晚约3000个，并在4年内减少50倍。SNe预计约为1100/晚，经过几年的调查，将主导新的变量发现率。LSST小行星的发现将从每晚> 10^5开始，如果轨道确定在每个历元有50%的成功率，将在2年内下降到每晚1000以下。
英文摘要：
The discovery of variable and transient sources is an essential product of synoptic surveys. The alert stream will require filtering for personalized criteria -- a process managed by a functionality commonly described as a Broker. In order to understand quantitatively the magnitude of the alert generation and Broker tasks, we have undertaken an analysis of the most numerous types of variable targets in the sky -- Galactic stars, QSOs, AGNs and asteroids. It is found that LSST will be capable of discovering ~10^5 high latitude |b| > 20 deg) variable stars per night at the beginning of the survey. (The corresponding number for |b| < 20 deg is orders of magnitude larger, but subject to caveats concerning extinction and crowding.) However, the number of new discoveries may well drop below 100/night within 2 years. The same analysis applied to GAIA clarifies the complementarity of the GAIA and LSST surveys. Discovery of variable galactic nuclei (AGNs) and Quasi Stellar Objects (QSOs) are each predicted to begin at ~3000 per night, and decrease by 50X over 4 years. SNe are expected at ~1100/night, and after several survey years will dominate the new variable discovery rate. LSST asteroid discoveries will start at > 10^5 per night, and if orbital determination has a 50% success rate per epoch, will drop below 1000/night within 2 years.
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