We address the problem of using observational data to estimate peer contagion effects, the influence of treatments applied to individuals in a network on the outcomes of their neighbors. A main challenge to such estimation is that homophily - the tendency of connected units to share similar latent traits - acts as an unobserved confounder for contagion effects. Informally, it's hard to tell whether your friends have similar outcomes because they were influenced by your treatment, or whether it's due to some common trait that caused you to be friends in the first place. Because these common causes are not usually directly observed, they cannot be simply adjusted for. We describe an approach to perform the required adjustment using node embeddings learned from the network itself. The main aim is to perform this adjustment nonparametrically, without functional form assumptions on either the process that generated the network or the treatment assignment and outcome processes. The key contributions are to nonparametrically formalize the causal effect in a way that accounts for homophily, and to show how embedding methods can be used to identify and estimate this effect. Code is available at https://github.com/IrinaCristali/Peer-Contagion-on-Networks.
In non-network settings, encouragement designs have been widely used to analyze causal effects of a treatment, policy, or intervention on an outcome of interest when randomizing the treatment was considered impractical or when compliance to treatment cannot be perfectly enforced. Unfortunately, such questions related to treatment compliance have received less attention in network settings and the most well-studied experimental design in networks, the two-stage randomization design, requires perfect compliance with treatment. The paper proposes a new experimental design called peer encouragemen…
A prominent threat to causal inference about peer effects over social networks is the presence of homophily bias, that is, social influence between friends and families is entangled with common characteristics or underlying similarities that form close connections. Analysis of social network data has suggested that certain health conditions such as obesity and psychological states including happiness and loneliness can spread over a network. However, such analyses of peer effects or contagion effects have come under criticism because homophily bias may compromise the causal statement. We devel…
ISI Foundation（ISI基金会）；UniCredit（裕信银行）；New York University（纽约大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to characterize social influence, and, in general, most data-science analyses focus on correlations, statistical independence, or conditional independence. Only recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in "causal data science", e.g., grounded on causality theories. In this paper we adopt a principled causal approach to the analysis of social influence fro…
Peer effects, in which the behavior of an individual is affected by the behavior of their peers, are posited by multiple theories in the social sciences. Other processes can also produce behaviors that are correlated in networks and groups, thereby generating debate about the credibility of observational (i.e. nonexperimental) studies of peer effects. Randomized field experiments that identify peer effects, however, are often expensive or infeasible. Thus, many studies of peer effects use observational data, and prior evaluations of causal inference methods for adjusting observational data to …
Randomized experiments, or A/B tests are used to estimate the causal impact of a feature on the behavior of users by creating two parallel universes in which members are simultaneously assigned to treatment and control. However, in social network settings, members interact, such that the impact of a feature is not always contained within the treatment group. Researchers have developed a number of experimental designs to estimate network effects in social settings. Alternatively, naturally occurring exogenous variation, or 'natural experiments,' allow researchers to recover causal estimates of …
We describe semiparametric estimation and inference for causal effects using observational data from a single social network. Our asymptotic results are the first to allow for dependence of each observation on a growing number of other units as sample size increases. In addition, while previous methods have implicitly permitted only one of two possible sources of dependence among social network observations, we allow for both dependence due to transmission of information across network ties and for dependence due to latent similarities among nodes sharing ties. We propose new causal effects th…
Many previous causal inference studies require no interference, that is, the potential outcomes of a unit do not depend on the treatments of other units. However, this no-interference assumption becomes unreasonable when a unit interacts with other units in the same group or cluster. In a motivating application, a university in China admits students through two channels: the college entrance exam (also known as Gaokao) and recommendation (often based on Olympiads in various subjects). The university randomly assigns students to dorms, each of which hosts four students. Students within the same…
Social applications mine user social graphs to improve performance in search, provide recommendations, allow resource sharing and increase data privacy. When such applications are implemented on a peer-to-peer (P2P) architecture, the social graph is distributed on the P2P system: the traversal of the social graph translates into a socially-informed routing in the peer-to-peer layer. In this work we introduce the model of a projection graph that is the result of decentralizing a social graph onto a peer-to-peer network. We focus on three social network metrics: degree, node betweenness and edge…
Empirical data shows that in the absence of incentives, a peer participating in a Peer-to-Peer (P2P) network wishes to free-riding. Most solutions for providing incentives in P2P networks are based on direct reciprocity, which are not appropriate for most P2P multimedia sharing networks due to the unique features exhibited by such networks: large populations of anonymous agents interacting infrequently, asymmetric interests of peers, network errors, and multiple concurrent transactions. In this paper, we design and rigorously analyze a new family of incentive protocols that utilizes indirect r…
The Linear Threshold Model is a widely used model that describes how information diffuses through a social network. According to this model, an individual adopts an idea or product after the proportion of their neighbors who have adopted it reaches a certain threshold. Typical applications of the Linear Threshold Model assume that thresholds are either the same for all network nodes or randomly distributed, even though some people may be more susceptible to peer pressure than others. To address individual-level differences, we propose causal inference methods for estimating individual threshol…
Children and adolescents interact in peer groups, which are known to influence a range of psychological and behavioral outcomes. In developmental psychology and related disciplines, social cognitive mapping (SCM), as implemented with the SCM 4.0 software, is the most commonly used method for identifying peer groups from peer report data. However, in a series of four studies, we demonstrate that SCM has an unacceptably high risk of false positives. Specifically, we show that SCM will identify peer groups even when applied to random data. We introduce backbone extraction and community detection …
Distributed online social networks (DOSNs) were first proposed to solve the problem of privacy, security and scalability. A significant amount of research was undertaken to offer viable DOSN solutions that were capable of competing with the existing centralized OSN applications such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram. This research led to the emergence of the use of peer-to-peer (P2P) networks as a possible solution, upon which several OSNs such as LifeSocial.KOM, Safebook, PeerSoN among others were based. In this paper, we define the basic requirements for a P2P OSN. We then revisit one of t…
What is the effect of the combined direct and indirect social influences-peer pressure (PP)-on a social groups collective decisions? We present a model that captures PP as a function of the socio-cultural distance between individuals in a social group. Using this model and empirical data from 15 real-world social networks we found that the PP level determines how fast a social group reaches consensus. More importantly, the levels of PP determine the leaders who can achieve full control of their social groups. PP can overcome barriers imposed upon a consensus by the existence of tightly connect…
We consider social peer-to-peer data management systems (PDMS), where each peer maintains both semantic mappings between its schema and some acquaintances, and social links with peer friends. In this context, reformulating a query from a peer's schema into other peer's schemas is a hard problem, as it may generate as many rewritings as the set of mappings from that peer to the outside and transitively on, by eventually traversing the entire network. However, not all the obtained rewritings are relevant to a given query. In this paper, we address this problem by inspecting semantic mappings and…
Creativity is viewed as one of the most important skills in the context of future-of-work. In this paper, we explore how the dynamic (self-organizing) nature of social networks impacts the fostering of creative ideas. We run 6 trials (N=288) of a web-based experiment involving divergent ideation tasks. We find that network connections gradually adapt to individual creative performances, as the participants predominantly seek to follow high-performing peers for creative inspirations. We unearth both opportunities and bottlenecks afforded by such self-organization. While exposure to high-perform…
Online social networks, such as Facebook and twitter, are a growing phenomenon in today's world, with various platforms providing capabilities for individuals to collaborate through messaging and chatting as well as sharing of content such as videos and photos. Most, if not all, of these platforms are based on centralized computing systems, meaning that the control and management of the systems lies in the hand of one provider, which must be trusted to treat the data and communication traces securely. While users aim for privacy and data sovereignty, often the providers aim to monetize the dat…
Human behavior often exhibit a scheme in which individuals adopt indifferent, neutral, or radical positions on a given topic. The mechanisms leading to community formation are strongly related with social pressure and the topology of the contact network. Here, we discuss an approach to model social behavior which accounts for the protection by alike peers proportional to their relative abundance in the closest neighborhood. We explore the ensuing non-linear dynamics emphasizing the role of the specific structure of the social network, modeled by scale-free graphs. We find that both coexistence…
The importance of peer influence on consumer actions plays a vital role in marketing efforts. However, peer influence effects are often confounded with latent homophily, which are unobserved commonalities that drive friendship. Understanding causality has become one of the pressing issues of current research. We present an approach to explicitly account for various causal influences. We implement a simulation framework to show the effectiveness of two latent homophily proxies, latent coordinates and community membership, in improving peer influence effect estimates on game downloads in a Japan…
In this work, we investigate the structure and evolution of a peer-to-peer (P2P) payment application. A unique aspect of the network under consideration is that the edges among nodes represent financial transactions among individuals who shared an offline social interaction. Our dataset comes from Venmo, the most popular P2P mobile payment service. We present a series of static and dynamic measurements that summarize the key aspects of any social network, namely the degree distribution, density and connectivity. We find that the degree distributions do not follow a power-law distribution, conf…
Social advertising uses information about consumers' peers, including peer affiliations with a brand, product, organization, etc., to target ads and contextualize their display. This approach can increase ad efficacy for two main reasons: peers' affiliations reflect unobserved consumer characteristics, which are correlated along the social network; and the inclusion of social cues (i.e., peers' association with a brand) alongside ads affect responses via social influence processes. For these reasons, responses may be increased when multiple social signals are presented with ads, and when ads a…
Peer recommendation is a crowdsourcing task that leverages the opinions of many to identify interesting content online, such as news, images, or videos. Peer recommendation applications often use social signals, e.g., the number of prior recommendations, to guide people to the more interesting content. How people react to social signals, in combination with content quality and its presentation order, determines the outcomes of peer recommendation, i.e., item popularity. Using Amazon Mechanical Turk, we experimentally measure the effects of social signals in peer recommendation. Specifically, a…
Instant quality feedback in the form of online peer ratings is a prominent feature of modern massive online social networks (MOSNs). It allows network members to indicate their appreciation of a post, comment, photograph, etc. Some MOSNs support both positive and negative (signed) ratings. In this study, we rated 11 thousand MOSN member profiles and collected user responses to the ratings. MOSN users are very sensitive to peer ratings: 33% of the subjects visited the researcher's profile in response to rating, 21% also rated the researcher's profile picture, and 5% left a text comment. The gra…
In addition to seamless connectivity and smartness, the objects in the Internet of Things (IoT) are expected to have the social capabilities -- these objects are termed as ``social objects''. In this paper, an intuitive paradigm of social interactions between these objects are argued and modeled. The impact of social behavior on the interaction pattern of social objects is studied taking Peer-to-Peer (P2P) resource sharing as an example application. The model proposed in this paper studies the implications of competitive vs. cooperative social paradigm, while peers attempt to attain the shared…
Ensuring the early detection of important social network users is a challenging task. Some peer ranking services are now well established, such as PeerIndex, Klout, or Kred. Their function is to rank users according to their influence. This notion of influence is however abstract, and the algorithms achieving this ranking are opaque. Following the rising demand for a more transparent web, we explore the problem of gaining knowledge by reverse engineering such peer ranking services, with regards to the social network topology they get as an input. Since these services exploit the online activit…
MOOC participants often feel isolated and disconnected from their peers. Navigating meaningful peer interactions, generating a sense of belonging, and achieving social presence are all major challenges for MOOC platforms. MOOC users often rely on external social platforms for such connection and peer interaction, however, off-platform networking often distracts participants from their learning. With the intention of resolving this issue, we introduce PeerCollab, a web-based platform that provides affordances to create communities and supports meaningful peer interactions, building close-knit g…
Opinion polls mediated through a social network can give us, in addition to usual demographics data like age, gender and geographic location, a friendship structure between voters and the temporal dynamics of their activity during the voting process. Using a Facebook application we collected friendship relationships, demographics and votes of over ten thousand users on the referendum on the definition of marriage in Croatia held on 1st of December 2013. We also collected data on online news articles mentioning our application. Publication of these articles align closely with large peaks of vot…
Recent years have seen several earnest initiatives from both academic researchers as well as open source communities to implement and deploy decentralized online social networks (DOSNs). The primary motivations for DOSNs are privacy and autonomy from big brotherly service providers. The promise of decentralization is complete freedom for end-users from any service providers both in terms of keeping privacy about content and communication, and also from any form of censorship. However decentralization introduces many challenges. One of the principal problems is to guarantee availability of data…
In this paper, we study a model of opinion dynamics in a social network in the presence increasing interpersonal influence, i.e., increasing peer pressure. Each agent in the social network has a distinct social stress function given by a weighted sum of internal and external behavioral pressures. We assume a weighted average update rule and prove conditions under which a connected group of agents converge to a fixed opinion distribution, and under which conditions the group reaches consensus. We show that the update rule is a gradient descent and explain its transient and asymptotic convergenc…
This paper contains the details of a distributed trust-aware recommendation system. Trust-base recommenders have received a lot of attention recently. The main aim of trust-based recommendation is to deal the problems in traditional Collaborative Filtering recommenders. These problems include cold start users, vulnerability to attacks, etc.. Our proposed method is a distributed approach and can be easily deployed on social networks or real life networks such as sensor networks or peer to peer networks.
Understanding adoption patterns of smartphones is of vital importance to telecommunication managers in today's highly dynamic mobile markets. In this paper, we leverage the network structure and specific position of each individual in the social network to account for and measure the potential heterogeneous role of peer influence in the adoption of the iPhone 3G. We introduce the idea of core/periphery as a meso-level organizational principle to study the social network, which complements the use of centrality measures derived from either global network properties (macro-level) or from each in…
The paper discusses diverse interconnected relationships formed within a seemingly unrelated group of students and a conceptually different problem statement. This study uses a Social Network Analysis (SNA) to analyze and map the connections among the individuals. SNA facilitates understanding the psychology of a group of people while performing a certain task. This could help predict further patterns in which a similar group might perform these tasks. As discussed in this paper, the analysis of selection of teammates for a project indirectly implies friendships in a department and can predict…
It is widely believed that one's peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the pattern by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game makes a decision among choices with differing utilities. We observe the follo…
While social media has become an empowering agent to individual voices and freedom of expression, it also facilitates anti-social behaviors including online harassment, cyberbullying, and hate speech. In this paper, we present the first comparative study of hate speech instigators and target users on Twitter. Through a multi-step classification process, we curate a comprehensive hate speech dataset capturing various types of hate. We study the distinctive characteristics of hate instigators and targets in terms of their profile self-presentation, activities, and online visibility. We find that…
Ad-hoc Social Networks have become popular to support novel applications related to location-based mobile services that are of great importance to users and businesses. Unlike traditional social services using a centralized server to fetch location, ad-hoc social network services support infrastructure less real-time social networking. It allows users to collaborate and share views anytime anywhere. However, current ad-hoc social network applications are either not available without rooting the mobile phones or don't filter the nearby users based on common interests without a centralized serve…
Many-to-one matching markets exist in numerous different forms, such as college admissions, matching medical interns to hospitals for residencies, assigning housing to college students, and the classic firms and workers market. In all these markets, externalities such as complementarities and peer effects severely complicate the preference ordering of each agent. Further, research has shown that externalities lead to serious problems for market stability and for developing efficient algorithms to find stable matchings. In this paper we make the observation that peer effects are often the resul…
In this paper, the influence of the social media on the opinion formation process is modeled during an election campaign. In the proposed model, peer- to-peer interactions and targeted online propaganda messages are assumed to be the driving forces of the opinion formation dynamics. The conviction power of the targeted messages is based on the collected and processed private information. In this work, the model is based on an artificial society, initially evenly divided between two parties. The bounded confidence model governs peer-to-peer interactions with a value of confidence parameter whic…
Incorporating Like-Minded Peers to Overcome Friend Data Sparsity in Session-Based Social Recommendations
College of Computer Science, Inner Mongolia University（内蒙古大学计算机学院）；College of Medicine, University of Florida（佛罗里达大学医学院）；School of Engineering and Computer Science, Victoria University of Wellington（惠灵顿维多利亚大学工程与计算机科学学院）；School of Computer Science, Fudan University（复旦大学计算机学院）
The structure of an online social network in most cases cannot be described just by links between its members. We study online social networks, in which members may have certain attitude, positive or negative toward each other, and so the network consists of a mixture of both positive and negative relationships. Our goal is to predict the sign of a given relationship based on the evidences provided in the current snapshot of the network. More precisely, using machine learning techniques we develop a model that after being trained on a particular network predicts the sign of an unknown or hidde…
The idea of a social cloud has emerged as a resource sharing paradigm in a social network context. Undoubtedly, state-of-the-art social cloud systems demonstrate the potential of the social cloud acting as complementary to other computing paradigms such as the cloud, grid, peer-to-peer and volunteer computing. However, in this note, we have done a critical survey of the social cloud literature and come to the conclusion that these initial efforts fail to offer a general framework of the social cloud, also, to show the uniqueness of the social cloud. This short note reveals that there are signi…
An unprecedented information wealth produced by online social networks, further augmented by location/collocation data, is currently fragmented across different proprietary services. Combined, it can accurately represent the social world and enable novel socially-aware applications. We present Prometheus, a socially-aware peer-to-peer service that collects social information from multiple sources into a multigraph managed in a decentralized fashion on user-contributed nodes, and exposes it through an interface implementing non-trivial social inferences while complying with user-defined access …
Fads, product adoption, mobs, rumors, memes, and emergent norms are diverse social contagions that have been modeled as network cascades. Empirical study of these cascades is vulnerable to what we describe as the "opacity problem": the inability to observe the critical level of peer influence required to trigger an individual's behavioral change. Even with maximal information, network cascades reveal intervals that bound critical levels of peer exposure, rather than critical values themselves. Existing practice uses interval maxima, which systematically over-estimates the social influence requ…
Each year, there are nearly 4 million youth experiencing homelessness (YEH) in the United States with HIV prevalence ranging from 3 to 11.5%. Peer change agent (PCA) models for HIV prevention have been used successfully in many populations, but there have been notable failures. In recent years, network interventionists have suggested that these failures could be attributed to PCA selection procedures. The change agents themselves who are selected to do the PCA work can often be as important as the messages they convey. To address this concern, we tested a new PCA intervention for YEH, with thr…
Large-scale rumor spreading could pose severe social and economic damages. The emergence of online social networks along with the new media can even make rumor spreading more severe. Effective control of rumor spreading is of theoretical and practical significance. This paper takes the first step to understand how the blockchain technology can help limit the spread of rumors. Specifically, we develop a new paradigm for social networks embedded with the blockchain technology, which employs decentralized contracts to motivate trust networks as well as secure information exchange contract. We des…
The architectures of deployed anonymity systems such as Tor suffer from two key problems that limit user's trust in these systems. First, paths for anonymous communication are built without considering trust relationships between users and relays in the system. Second, the network architecture relies on a set of centralized servers. In this paper, we propose Pisces, a decentralized protocol for anonymous communications that leverages users' social links to build circuits for onion routing. We argue that such an approach greatly improves the system's resilience to attackers. A fundamental chall…
Agent-based modeling and simulation tools provide a mature platform for development of complex simulations. They however, have not been applied much in the domain of mainstream modeling and simulation of computer networks. In this article, we evaluate how and if these tools can offer any value-addition in the modeling & simulation of complex networks such as pervasive computing, large-scale peer-to-peer systems, and networks involving considerable environment and human/animal/habitat interaction. Specifically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of NetLogo - a tool that has been widely used in th…
A community is sub-network inside P2P networks that partition the network into groups of similar peers to improve performance by reducing network traffic and high search query success rate. Large communities are common in online social networks than traditional file-sharing P2P networks because many people capture huge amounts of data through their lives. This increases the number of hosts bearing similar data in the network and hence increases the size of communities. This article presents a Memory Thread-based Communities for our entity-based social P2P network that partition the network int…
Pathogenic social media accounts such as terrorist supporters exploit communities of supporters for conducting attacks on social media. Early detection of PSM accounts is crucial as they are likely to be key users in making a harmful message "viral". This paper overviews my recent doctoral work on utilizing causal inference to identify PSM accounts within a short time frame around their activity. The proposed scheme (1) assigns time-decay causality scores to users, (2) applies a community detection-based algorithm to group of users sharing similar causality scores and finally (3) deploys a cla…
Interpersonal relationships are necessary for successful daily functioning and wellbeing. Numerous studies have demonstrated the importance of social connectivity for mental health, both through direct peer-to-peer influence and by the location of individuals within their social network. Passive monitoring using smartphones provides an advanced tool to map social networks based on the proximity between individuals. This study investigates the feasibility of using a smartphone app to measure and assess the relationship between social network metrics and mental health. The app collected Bluetoot…
Identifying and communicating relationships between causes and effects is important for understanding our world, but is affected by language structure, cognitive and emotional biases, and the properties of the communication medium. Despite the increasing importance of social media, much remains unknown about causal statements made online. To study real-world causal attribution, we extract a large-scale corpus of causal statements made on the Twitter social network platform as well as a comparable random control corpus. We compare causal and control statements using statistical language and sen…
Over the past decade, online social networks (OSNs) such as Twitter and Facebook have thrived and experienced rapid growth to over 1 billion users. A major evolution would be to leverage the characteristics of OSNs to evaluate the effectiveness of the many routing schemes developed by the research community in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we showcase the Secure Opportunistic Schemes (SOS) middleware which allows different routing schemes to be easily implemented relieving the burden of security and connection establishment. The feasibility of creating a delay tolerant social network is…
Social learning -by observing and copying others- is a highly successful cultural mechanism for adaptation, outperforming individual information acquisition and experience. Here, we investigate social learning in the context of the uniquely human capacity for reflective, analytical reasoning. A hallmark of the human mind is our ability to engage analytical reasoning, and suppress false associative intuitions. Through a set of lab-based network experiments, we find that social learning fails to propagate this cognitive strategy. When people make false intuitive conclusions, and are exposed to t…
The peer-to-peer (P2P) economy relies on establishing trust in distributed networked systems, where the reliability of a user is assessed through digital peer-review processes that aggregate ratings into reputation scores. Here we present evidence of a network effect which biases digital reputation, revealing that P2P networks display exceedingly high levels of reciprocity. In fact, these are much higher than those compatible with a null assumption that preserves the empirically observed level of agreement between all pairs of nodes, and rather close to the highest levels structurally compatib…
Causal Disentanglement for Regulating Social Influence Bias in Social Recommendation
School of Electrical and Data Engineering, University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学电气与数据工程学院）；School of Artificial Intelligence, Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences（重庆文理学院人工智能学院）
Estimating influence on social media networks is an important practical and theoretical problem, especially because this new medium is widely exploited as a platform for disinformation and propaganda. This paper introduces a novel approach to influence estimation on social media networks and applies it to the real-world problem of characterizing active influence operations on Twitter during the 2017 French presidential elections. The new influence estimation approach attributes impact by accounting for narrative propagation over the network using a network causal inference framework applied to…
