成分波动对对冲物种生存的影响
Effect of compositional fluctuation on the survival of bet-hedging species
摘要：
了解不同物种在变化环境中的共存是群落生态学中的一个重要问题。赌注对冲是一种帮助物种在这种不断变化的环境中生存的策略。然而，对冲研究往往集中在预期的长期增长率的物种本身，忽视了与其他共存物种的竞争。在这里，我们研究的灭绝风险的赌注对冲物种与其他竞争。我们发现，有三个贡献的灭绝风险。第一种是通常的人口波动，由于在有限的人口随机繁殖和选择过程。第二，由于环境变化引起的种群增长率波动，可能会违反直觉地降低小种群的灭绝风险。除了这两个，我们揭示了第三个贡献，这是独特的赌注对冲物种，多样化成多种表型：人口的表型组成将随着时间的推移而波动，导致灭绝风险增加。我们比较这样的组成波动的人口和环境的贡献，显示它们如何有不同的影响灭绝的风险取决于人口规模，世代重叠，和环境的相关性。
英文摘要：
Understanding the coexistence of diverse species in a changing environment is an important problem in community ecology. Bet-hedging is a strategy that helps species survive in such changing environments. However, studies of bet-hedging have often focused on the expected long-term growth rate of the species by itself, neglecting competition with other coexisting species. Here we study the extinction risk of a bet-hedging species in competition with others. We show that there are three contributions to the extinction risk. The first is the usual demographic fluctuation due to stochastic reproduction and selection processes in finite populations. The second, due to the fluctuation of population growth rate caused by environmental changes, may counterintuitively reduce the extinction risk for small populations. Besides those two, we reveal a third contribution, which is unique to bet-hedging species that diversify into multiple phenotypes: The phenotype composition of the population will fluctuate over time, resulting in increased extinction risk. We compare such compositional fluctuation to the demographic and environmental contributions, showing how they have different effects on the extinction risk depending on the population size, generation overlap, and environmental correlation.
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