对冲人口波动风险
Bet-hedging against demographic fluctuations
摘要：
生物有机体必须应对外部环境和内部种群动力学的随机变化。理论研究和实验室实验表明，种群多样性可能是适应不同环境的有效赌注对冲策略。在这里，我们表明，赌注对冲也可以有效地对抗人口波动，即使在一个恒定的环境中，人口的增长和生存之间的权衡。一个物种可以通过多样化成为“快速生长”和“生存更好”的个体共存的亚群，从而在长期内最大限度地提高其总体丰度。我们的模型概括了统计物理模型的出生-死亡过程，包括扩散，在此期间，新的人口被发现，并可以进一步纳入当地环境的变化。通过这种方式，我们将针对人口和环境变化的不同赌注对冲策略统一起来，作为适应人口增长中这两种不确定性的一般手段。
英文摘要：
Biological organisms have to cope with stochastic variations in both the external environment and the internal population dynamics. Theoretical studies and laboratory experiments suggest that population diversification could be an effective bet-hedging strategy for adaptation to varying environments. Here we show that bet-hedging can also be effective against demographic fluctuations that pose a trade-off between growth and survival for populations even in a constant environment. A species can maximize its overall abundance in the long term by diversifying into coexisting subpopulations of both "fast-growing" and "better-surviving" individuals. Our model generalizes statistical physics models of birth-death processes to incorporate dispersal, during which new populations are founded, and can further incorporate variations of local environments. In this way we unify different bet-hedging strategies against demographic and environmental variations as a general means of adaptation to both types of uncertainties in population growth.
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