The power spectrum of weak lensing fluctuations has a non-Gaussian distribution due to its quadratic nature. On small scales the Central Limit Theorem acts to Gaussianize this distribution but non-Gaussianity in the signal due to gravitational collapse is increasing and the functional form of the likelihood is unclear. Analyses have traditionally assumed a Gaussian likelihood with non-linearity incorporated into the covariance matrix; here we provide the theory underpinning this assumption. We calculate, for the first time, the leading-order correction to the distribution of angular power spectra from non-Gaussianity in the underlying signal and study the transition to Gaussianity. Our expressions are valid for an arbitrary number of correlated maps and correct the Wishart distribution in the presence of weak (but otherwise arbitrary) non-Gaussianity in the signal. Surprisingly, the resulting distribution is not equivalent to an Edgeworth expansion. The leading-order effect is to broaden the covariance matrix by the usual trispectrum term, with residual skewness sourced by the trispectrum and the square of the bispectrum. Using lognormal lensing maps we demonstrate that our likelihood is uniquely able to model both large and mildly non-linear scales. We provide easy-to-compute statistics to quantify the size of the non-Gaussian corrections. We show that the full non-Gaussian likelihood can be accurately modelled as a Gaussian on small, non-linear scales. On large angular scales non-linearity in the lensing signal imparts a negligible correction to the likelihood, which takes the Wishart form in the full-sky case. Our formalism is equally applicable to any kind of projected field.
We present a new Planck CMB lensing-CMB temperature cross-correlation likelihood that can be used to constrain cosmology via the Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect. CMB lensing is an excellent tracer of ISW, and we use the latest PR4 Planck data maps and lensing reconstruction to produce the first public Planck likelihood to constrain this signal. We demonstrate the likelihood by constraining the CMB background temperature from Planck data alone, where the ISW-lensing cross-correlation is a powerful way to break the geometric degeneracy, substantially improving constraints from the CMB and le…
We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple Hierarchical Model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak lensing analyses are naturally biased low, and this does not indicate any new physics such as deviations from $Λ$CDM. Mathematically, the biases arise because noisy two-point functions follow skewed distributions. This form of bias is already known from CMB analyses, where the low multipoles have asymmetric error bars. Weak lensing is more strongly affected …
We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in one-dimensional marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in one-dimensional posteriors of $Ω_{\rm m}$ and $σ_{\rm 8}$ due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear …
Precise reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background lensing potential can be achieved with deep polarization surveys by iteratively removing lensing-induced $B$ modes. We introduce a lensing spectrum estimator and its likelihood for such optimal iterative reconstruction. Our modelling share similarities to the state-of-the-art likelihoods for quadratic estimator-based (QE) lensing reconstruction. In particular, we generalize the $N_L^{(0)}$ and $N_L^{(1)}$ lensing biases, and design a realization-dependent spectrum debiaser, making this estimator robust to uncertainties in the data model…
We develop a Maximum Likelihood estimator (MLE) to measure the masses of galaxy clusters through the impact of gravitational lensing on the temperature and polarization anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We show that, at low noise levels in temperature, this optimal estimator outperforms the standard quadratic estimator by a factor of two. For polarization, we show that the Stokes Q/U maps can be used instead of the traditional E- and B-mode maps without losing information. We test and quantify the bias in the recovered lensing mass for a comprehensive list of potential sys…
We investigate whether a Gaussian likelihood, as routinely assumed in the analysis of cosmological data, is supported by simulated survey data. We define test statistics, based on a novel method that first destroys Gaussian correlations in a dataset, and then measures the non-Gaussian correlations that remain. This procedure flags pairs of datapoints which depend on each other in a non-Gaussian fashion, and thereby identifies where the assumption of a Gaussian likelihood breaks down. Using this diagnostic, we find that non-Gaussian correlations in the CFHTLenS cosmic shear correlation function…
In many cosmological inference problems, the likelihood (the probability of the observed data as a function of the unknown parameters) is unknown or intractable. This necessitates approximations and assumptions, which can lead to incorrect inference of cosmological parameters, including the nature of dark matter and dark energy, or create artificial model tensions. Likelihood-free inference covers a novel family of methods to rigorously estimate posterior distributions of parameters using forward modelling of mock data. We present likelihood-free cosmological parameter inference using weak len…
Peak counts have been shown to be an excellent tool to extract the non-Gaussian part of the weak lensing signal. Recently, we developped a fast stochastic forward model to predict weak-lensing peak counts. Our model is able to reconstruct the underlying distribution of observables for analyses. In this work, we explore and compare various strategies for constraining parameter using our model, focusing on the matter density $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ and the density fluctuation amplitude $σ_8$. First, we examine the impact from the cosmological dependency of covariances (CDC). Second, we perform the analys…
Headline constraints on cosmological parameters from current weak lensing surveys are derived from two-point statistics that are known to be statistically sub-optimal, even in the case of Gaussian fields. We study the performance of a new fast implementation of the Quadratic Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimator, optimal for Gaussian fields, to test the performance of Pseudo-Cl estimators for upcoming weak lensing surveys and quantify the gain from a more optimal method. Through the use of realistic survey geometries, noise levels, and power spectra, we find that there is a decrease in the errors…
We report the application of implicit likelihood inference to the prediction of the macro-parameters of strong lensing systems with neural networks. This allows us to perform deep learning analysis of lensing systems within a well-defined Bayesian statistical framework to explicitly impose desired priors on lensing variables, to obtain accurate posteriors, and to guarantee convergence to the optimal posterior in the limit of perfect performance. We train neural networks to perform a regression task to produce point estimates of lensing parameters. We then interpret these estimates as compresse…
We investigate whether a Gaussian likelihood is sufficient to obtain accurate parameter constraints from a Euclid-like combined tomographic power spectrum analysis of weak lensing, galaxy clustering and their cross-correlation. Testing its performance on the full sky against the Wishart distribution, which is the exact likelihood under the assumption of Gaussian fields, we find that the Gaussian likelihood returns accurate parameter constraints. This accuracy is robust to the choices made in the likelihood analysis, including the choice of fiducial cosmology, the range of scales included, and …
The angular power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies reconstructed from Planck data seem to present too much gravitational lensing distortion. This is quantified by the control parameter $A_L$ that should be compatible with unity for a standard cosmology. With the Class Boltzmann solver and the profile-likelihood method, for this parameter we measure a 2.6$σ$ shift from 1 using the Planck public likelihoods. We show that, owing to strong correlations with the reionization optical depth $τ$ and the primordial perturbation amplitude $A_s$, a $\sim2σ$ tensio…
We present and describe im3shape, a new publicly available galaxy shape measurement code for weak gravitational lensing shear. im3shape performs a maximum likelihood fit of a bulge-plus-disc galaxy model to noisy images, incorporating an applied point spread function. We detail challenges faced and choices made in its design and implementation, and then discuss various limitations that affect this and other maximum likelihood methods. We assess the bias arising from fitting an incorrect galaxy model using simple noise-free images and find that it should not be a concern for current cosmic shea…
We extend our maximum likelihood method for reconstructing the cluster-mass cross-correlation from cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies and develop new estimators that utilize six different quadratic combinations of CMB temperature and polarization fields. Our maximum likelihood estimators are constructed with delensed CMB temperature and polarization fields by using an assumed model of the convergence field and they can be iteratively applied to a set of clusters, approaching to the optimal condition for the lensing reconstruction as the assumed initial model is refined.…
Subject of this paper are the statistical properties of ellipticity alignments between galaxies evoked by their coupled angular momenta. Starting from physical angular momentum models, we bridge the gap towards ellipticity correlations, ellipticity spectra and derived quantities such as aperture moments, comparing the intrinsic signals with those generated by gravitational lensing, with the projected galaxy sample of EUCLID in mind. We investigate the dependence of intrinsic ellipticity correlations on cosmological parameters and show that intrinsic ellipticity correlations give rise to non-Ga…
The exact non-Gaussian weak lensing likelihood: A framework to calculate analytic likelihoods for correlation functions on masked Gaussian random fields
We introduce a new estimator of the CMB lensing power spectrum, together with its likelihood, based on iterative lensing reconstruction. Despite the increased complexity of the lensing maps, this estimator shares similarities with the standard quadratic estimator. Most importantly, it is unbiased towards the assumptions done on the noise and cosmology for the lensing reconstruction. This new spectrum estimator can double the constraints on the lensing amplitude compared to the quadratic estimator, while keeping numerical cost under control and being robust to errors.
Naive estimates of the statistics of large scale structure and weak lensing power spectrum measurements that include only Gaussian errors exaggerate their scientific impact. Non-linear evolution and finite volume effects are both significant sources of non-Gaussian covariance that reduce the ability of power spectrum measurements to constrain cosmological parameters. Using a halo model formalism, we derive an intuitive understanding of the various contributions to the covariance and show that our analytical treatment agrees with simulations. This approach enables an approximate derivation of a…
We present a new estimation method for mapping the gravitational lensing potential from observed CMB intensity and polarization fields. Our method uses Bayesian techniques to estimate the average curvature of the potential over small local regions. These local curvatures are then used to construct an estimate of a low pass filter of the gravitational potential. By utilizing Bayesian/likelihood methods one can easily overcome problems with missing and/or non-uniform pixels and problems with partial sky observations (E and B mode mixing, for example). Moreover, our methods are local in nature wh…
We present a field-based approach to the analysis of cosmic shear data to infer jointly cosmological parameters and the dark matter distribution. This forward modelling approach samples the cosmological parameters and the initial matter fluctuations, using a physical gravity model to link the primordial fluctuations to the non-linear matter distribution. Cosmological parameters are sampled and updated consistently through the forward model, varying (1) the initial matter power spectrum, (2) the geometry through the distance-redshift relationship, and (3) the growth of structure and light-cone …
Weak gravitational lensing is one of the few direct methods to map the dark-matter distribution on large scales in the Universe, and to estimate cosmological parameters. We study a Bayesian inference problem where the data covariance $\mathbf{C}$, estimated from a number $n_{\textrm{s}}$ of numerical simulations, is singular. In a cosmological context of large-scale structure observations, the creation of a large number of such $N$-body simulations is often prohibitively expensive. Inference based on a likelihood function often includes a precision matrix, $Ψ= \mathbf{C}^{-1}$. The covariance …
Likelihood-free inference provides a rigorous approach to preform Bayesian analysis using forward simulations only. The main advantage of likelihood-free methods is its ability to account for complex physical processes and observational effects in forward simulations. Here we explore the potential of likelihood-free forward modeling for Bayesian cosmological inference using the redshift evolution of the cluster abundance combined with weak-lensing mass calibration. We use two complementary likelihood-free methods, namely Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Density-Estimation Likelihood-…
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a promising approach for probing dark matter models on sub-galactic scales. Recent work has proposed the subhalo effective density slope as a more reliable observable than the commonly used subhalo mass function. The subhalo effective density slope is a measurement independent of assumptions about the underlying density profile and can be inferred for individual subhalos through traditional sampling methods. To go beyond individual subhalo measurements, we leverage recent advances in machine learning and introduce a neural likelihood-ratio estimator …
Comparisons between observed and predicted strong lensing properties of galaxy clusters have been routinely used to claim either tension or consistency with $Λ$CDM cosmology. However, standard approaches to such cosmological tests are unable to quantify the preference for one cosmology over another. We advocate approximating the relevant Bayes factor using a marginal likelihood that is based on the following summary statistic: the posterior probability distribution function for the parameters of the scaling relation between Einstein radii and cluster mass, $α$ and $β$. We demonstrate, for the …
We constrain properties of cluster haloes by performing likelihood analysis using lensing shear and flexion data. We test our analysis using two mock cluster haloes: an isothermal ellipsoid (SIE) model and a more realistic elliptical Navarro-Frenk-White (eNFW) model. For both haloes, we find that flexion is more sensitive to the halo ellipticity than shear. The introduction of flexion information significantly improves the constraints on halo ellipticity, orientation and mass. We also point out that there is a degeneracy between the mass and the ellipticity of SIE models in the lensing signal.
The cosmic microwave background (CMB) represents a unique source for the study of gravitational lensing. It is extended across the entire sky, partially polarized, located at the extreme distance of z=1100, and is thought to have the simple, underlying statistics of a Gaussian random field. Here we review the weak lensing of the CMB, highlighting the aspects which differentiate it from the weak lensing of other sources, such as galaxies. We discuss the statistics of the lensing deflection field which remaps the CMB, and the corresponding effect on the power spectra. We then focus on methods fo…
We present a maximum-likelihood weak lensing analysis of the mass distribution in optically selected spectroscopic Galaxy Groups (G$^3$Cv5) in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, using background Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric galaxies. The scaling of halo mass, $M_h$, with various group observables is investigated. Our main results are: 1) the measured relations of halo mass with group luminosity, virial volume and central galaxy stellar mass, $M_\star$, agree very well with predictions from mock group catalogues constructed from a GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation…
We present the optimal convergence and shear estimators for lensing reconstruction from the cosmic microwave background temperature field. This generalizes the deflection estimator, is sensitive to non-lensing modes, provides internal consistency checks, and is always at least as optimal. Previously, these estimators were only known in the squeezed limit. This paper decomposes convergence and shear fields into cosine and sine waves and the lensed correlation function is then Taylor expanded in the wave amplitudes. Maximizing the likelihood function gives the optimal estimators for the converge…
Assuming a Euclid-like weak lensing data set, we compare different methods of dealing with its inherent parameter degeneracies. Including priors into a data analysis can mask the information content of a given data set alone. However, since the information content of a data set is usually estimated with the Fisher matrix, priors are added in order to enforce an approximately Gaussian likelihood. Here, we compare priorless forecasts to more conventional forecasts that use priors. We find strongly non-Gaussian likelihoods for 2d-weak lensing if no priors are used, which we approximate with the D…
In this paper, we propose a Gaussian Process (GP) emulator for the calculation of a) tomographic weak lensing band-power spectra, and b) coefficients of summary data massively compressed with the MOPED algorithm. In the former case cosmological parameter inference is accelerated by a factor of $\sim 10$-$30$ compared to explicit calls to the Boltzmann solver CLASS when applied to KiDS-450 weak lensing data. Much larger gains will come with future data, where with MOPED compression, the speed up can be up to a factor of $\sim 10^3$ when the common Limber approximation is used. Furthermore, the …
The observed acceleration of the universe, explained through dark energy, could alternatively be explained through a modification of gravity that would also induce modifications in the evolution of cosmological perturbations. We use new weak lensing data from the COSMOS survey to test for deviations from General Relativity. The departure from GR is parametrized in a model-independent way that consistently parametrizes the two-point cosmic shear amplitude and growth. Using CMB priors, we perform a likelihood analysis. We find constraints on the amplitude of the signal that do not indicate a dev…
A likelihood-based method for measuring weak gravitational lensing shear in deep galaxy surveys is described and applied to the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). CFHTLenS comprises 154 sq deg of multicolour optical data from the CFHT Legacy Survey, with lensing measurements being made in the i' band to a depth i'(AB)<24.7, for galaxies with signal-to-noise ratio greater than about 10. The method is based on the lensfit algorithm described in earlier papers, but here we describe a full analysis pipeline that takes into account the properties of real surveys. The m…
Non-Gaussian correlations induced in CMB power spectra by gravitational lensing must be included in likelihood analyses for future CMB experiments. We present a simple but accurate likelihood model which includes these correlations and use it for Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation from simulated lensed CMB maps in the context of $Λ$CDM and extensions which include the sum of neutrino masses or the dark energy equation of state $w$. If lensing-induced covariance is not taken into account for a CMB-S4 type experiment, the errors for one combination of parameters in each case would be …
CMB and lensing reconstruction power spectra are powerful probes of cosmology. However they are correlated, since the CMB power spectra are lensed and the lensing reconstruction is constructed using CMB multipoles. We perform a full analysis of the auto- and cross-covariances, including polarization power spectra and minimum variance lensing estimators, and compare with simulations of idealized future CMB-S4 observations. Covariances sourced by fluctuations in the unlensed CMB and instrumental noise can largely be removed by using a realization-dependent subtraction of lensing reconstruction n…
We introduce the Generalised Lensing and Shear Spectra GLaSS code which is available for download from https://github.com/astro-informatics/GLaSS It is a fast and flexible public code, written in Python, that computes generalized spherical cosmic shear spectra. The commonly used tomographic and spherical Bessel lensing spectra come as built-in run-mode options. GLaSS is integrated into the Cosmosis modular cosmological pipeline package. We outline several computational choices that accelerate the computation of cosmic shear power spectra. Using GLaSS, we test whether the assumption that using …
Observed CMB anisotropies are lensed, and the lensed power spectra can be calculated accurately assuming the lensing deflections are Gaussian. However, the lensing deflections are actually slightly non-Gaussian due to both non-linear large-scale structure growth and post-Born corrections. We calculate the leading correction to the lensed CMB power spectra from the non-Gaussianity, which is determined by the lensing bispectrum. The lowest-order result gives $\sim 0.3\%$ corrections to the BB and EE polarization spectra on small-scales, however we show that the effect on EE is reduced by about a…
We address key points for an efficient implementation of likelihood codes for modern weak lensing large-scale structure surveys. Specifically, we focus on the joint weak lensing convergence power spectrum-bispectrum probe and we tackle the numerical challenges required by a realistic analysis. Under the assumption of (multivariate) Gaussian likelihoods, we have developed a high performance code that allows highly parallelised prediction of the binned tomographic observables and of their joint non-Gaussian covariance matrix accounting for terms up to the 6-point correlation function and super-s…
We explore strategies to extract cosmological constraints from a joint analysis of cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, galaxy clustering, cluster number counts and cluster weak lensing. We utilize the CosmoLike software to simulate results from an LSST like data set, specifically, we 1) compare individual and joint analyses of the different probes, 2) vary the selection criteria for lens and source galaxies, 3) investigate the impact of blending, 4) investigate the impact of the assumed cosmological model in multi-probe covariances, 6) quantify information content as a function of scales, and…
The estimation of cosmological parameters from a given data set requires a construction of a likelihood function which, in general, has a complicated functional form. We adopt a Gaussian copula and constructed a copula likelihood function for the convergence power spectrum from a weak lensing survey. We show that the parameter estimation based on the Gaussian likelihood erroneously introduces a systematic shift in the confidence region, in particular for a parameter of the dark energy equation of state w. Thus, the copula likelihood should be used in future cosmological observations.
We consider the dispersion on the supernova distance-redshift relation due to peculiar velocities and gravitational lensing, and the sensitivity of these effects to the amplitude of the matter power spectrum. We use the MeMo lensing likelihood developed by Quartin, Marra & Amendola (2014), which accounts for the characteristic non-Gaussian distribution caused by lensing magnification with measurements of the first four central moments of the distribution of magnitudes. We build on the MeMo likelihood by including the effects of peculiar velocities directly into the model for the moments. In or…
Advances in upcoming weak lensing surveys pose new challenges for an accurate modeling of the lensing observables. The wide sky coverage of Euclid makes angular scales down to $l_\mathrm{min}=10$ accessible. At such large angular scales, general relativistic effects manifest themselves, and the lensing magnification cannot be correctly described by the standard lensing convergence only. The impact of line-of-sight velocities on the magnification angular power spectrum, referred to as the Doppler magnification, is already well recognized in literature. In particular, it was suggested that the D…
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have recently been demonstrated on synthetic data to improve upon the precision of cosmological inference. In particular they have the potential to yield more precise cosmological constraints from weak lensing mass maps than the two-point functions. We present the cosmological results with a CNN from the KiDS-450 tomographic weak lensing dataset, constraining the total matter density $Ω_m$, the fluctuation amplitude $σ_8$, and the intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{\rm{IA}}$. We use a grid of N-body simulations to generate a training set of tomographic weak l…
With the availability of thousands of type Ia supernovae in the near future the magnitude scatter induced by lensing will become a major issue as it affects parameter estimation. Current N-body simulations are too time consuming to be integrated in the likelihood analyses used for estimating the cosmological parameters. In this paper we show that in the weak lensing regime a statistical numerical approximation produces accurate results orders of magnitude faster. We write down simple fits to the second, third and fourth central moments of the lensing magnification probability distribution as a…
Weak lensing data follow a naturally skewed distribution, implying the data vector most likely yielded from a survey will systematically fall below its mean. Although this effect is qualitatively known from CMB-analyses, correctly accounting for it in weak lensing is challenging, as a direct transfer of the CMB results is quantitatively incorrect. While a previous study (Sellentin et al. 2018) focused on the magnitude of this bias, we here focus on the frequency of this bias, its scaling with redshift, and its impact on the signal-to-noise of a survey. Filtering weak lensing data with COSEBIs,…
Weak gravitational lensing changes the angular power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization in a characteristic way containing valuable information for cosmological parameter estimation and weak lensing reconstructions. So far, analytical expressions for the lensed CMB power spectra assume the probability density function (PDF) of the lensing excursion angle to be Gaussian. However, coherent light deflection by nonlinear structures at low redshifts causes deviations from a pure Gaussian PDF. Working in the flat-sky limit we develop a method for computing …
To estimate cosmological parameters from a given dataset, we need to construct a likelihood function, which sometimes has a complicated functional form. We introduce the copula, a mathematical tool to construct an arbitrary multivariate distribution function from one-dimensional marginal distribution functions with any given dependence structure. It is shown that a likelihood function constructed by the so-called Gaussian copula can reproduce very well the n-dimensional probability distribution of the cosmic shear power spectrum obtained from a large number of ray-tracing simulations. This sug…
The available probes of the large scale structure in the Universe have distinct properties: galaxies are a high resolution but biased tracer of mass, while weak lensing avoids such biases but, due to low signal-to-noise ratio, has poor resolution. We investigate reconstructing the projected density field using the complementarity of weak lensing and galaxy positions. We propose a maximum-probability reconstruction of the 2D lensing convergence with a likelihood term for shear data and a prior on the Fourier phases constructed from the galaxy positions. By considering only the phases of the gal…
Quantifying image distortions caused by strong gravitational lensing and estimating the corresponding matter distribution in lensing galaxies has been primarily performed by maximum likelihood modeling of observations. This is typically a time and resource-consuming procedure, requiring sophisticated lensing codes, several data preparation steps, and finding the maximum likelihood model parameters in a computationally expensive process with downhill optimizers. Accurate analysis of a single lens can take up to a few weeks and requires the attention of dedicated experts. Tens of thousands of ne…
The angular positions of quasars are deflected by the gravitational lensing effect of foreground matter. The Lyman-alpha forest seen in the spectra of these quasars is therefore also lensed. We propose that the signature of weak gravitational lensing of the forest could be measured using similar techniques that have been applied to the lensed Cosmic Microwave Background, and which have also been proposed for application to spectral data from 21cm radio telescopes. As with 21cm data, the forest has the advantage of spectral information, potentially yielding many lensed "slices" at different red…
We present current and future constraints on equations of state for dark sector perturbations. The equations of state considered are those corresponding to a generalized scalar field model and time-diffeomorphism invariant $L(g)$ theories that are equivalent to models of a relativistic elastic medium and also Lorentz violating massive gravity. We develop a theoretical understanding of the observable impact of these models. In order to constrain these models we use CMB temperature data from Planck, BAO measurements, CMB lensing data from Planck and the South Pole Telescope, and weak galaxy lens…
