Experimental Investigation of Variational Mode Decomposition and Deep Learning for Short-Term Multi-horizon Residential Electric Load Forecasting
University of North Dakota（北达科他大学）；Czech Technical University in Prague（捷克布拉格技术大学）；International University of Rabat（拉巴特国际大学）；University of Leeds（利兹大学）；Mohammed V University in Rabat（拉巴特穆罕默德五世大学）
Mohamed Aymane Ahajjam, Daniel Bonilla Licea, Mounir Ghogho, Abdellatif Kobbane
With the booming growth of advanced digital technologies, it has become possible for users as well as distributors of energy to obtain detailed and timely information about the electricity consumption of households. These technologies can also be used to forecast the household's electricity consumption (a.k.a. the load). In this paper, we investigate the use of Variational Mode Decomposition and deep learning techniques to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting problem. Although this problem has been studied in the literature, selecting an appropriate decomposition level and a deep learning technique providing better forecasting performance have garnered comparatively less attention. This study bridges this gap by studying the effect of six decomposition levels and five distinct deep learning networks. The raw load profiles are first decomposed into intrinsic mode functions using the Variational Mode Decomposition in order to mitigate their non-stationary aspect. Then, day, hour, and past electricity consumption data are fed as a three-dimensional input sequence to a four-level Wavelet Decomposition Network model. Finally, the forecast sequences related to the different intrinsic mode functions are combined to form the aggregate forecast sequence. The proposed method was assessed using load profiles of five Moroccan households from the Moroccan buildings' electricity consumption dataset (MORED) and was benchmarked against state-of-the-art time-series models and a baseline persistence model.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
Accurate day-ahead individual residential load forecasting is of great importance to various applications of smart grid on day-ahead market. Deep learning, as a powerful machine learning technology, has shown great advantages and promising application in load forecasting tasks. However, deep learning is a computationally-hungry method, and requires high costs (e.g., time, energy and CO2 emission) to train a deep learning model, which aggravates the energy crisis and incurs a substantial burden to the environment. As a consequence, the deep learning methods are difficult to be popularized and a…
Higher penetration of renewable and smart home technologies at the residential level challenges grid stability as utility-customer interactions add complexity to power system operations. In response, short-term residential load forecasting has become an increasing area of focus. However, forecasting at the residential level is challenging due to the higher uncertainties involved. Recently deep neural networks have been leveraged to address this issue. This paper investigates the capabilities of a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) and a convolutional neural network-based BiLSTM (CNN…
From Dense to Sparse: Event Response for Enhanced Residential Load Forecasting
College of Computer Science, Sichuan University（四川大学计算机学院）；ESAT, KU Leuven（鲁汶大学ESAT学院）；School of Cybersecurity (Xin Gu Industrial College), Chengdu University of Information Technology（成都信息工程大学网络空间安全学院（信工产业学院））；School of Information and Communication Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学信息与通信工程学院）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Connecticut（康涅狄格大学计算机科学与工程系）；Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学计算机科学系）
针对住宅负荷预测忽视电器事件关联稀疏规律的问题，提出可插拔的 ERKG 方法，通过估计电器运行状态并融合知识引导，使现有 SOTA 模型 MAE 降低逾 8%。
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system in various ways. Due to the growing importance of probabilistic load forecast models, different approaches are presented in this analysis. The focus is on different models from the short-term sector. After that, another model from the long-term sector is presented. Then, the presented models are put in relation to each other and examined with reference to ad…
Electricity load forecasting for buildings and campuses is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) grows. Efficient operation and dispatch of DERs require reasonably accurate predictions of future energy consumption in order to conduct near-real-time optimized dispatch of on-site generation and storage assets. Electric utilities have traditionally performed load forecasting for load pockets spanning large geographic areas, and therefore forecasting has not been a common practice by buildings and campus operators. Given the growing trends of res…
Forecasting the actual amount of electricity with respect to the need/demand of the load is always been a challenging task for each power plants based generating stations. Due to uncertain demand of electricity at receiving end of station causes several challenges such as: reduction in performance parameters of generating and receiving end stations, minimization in revenue, increases the jeopardize for the utility to predict the future energy need for a company etc. With this issues, the precise forecasting of load at the receiving end station is very consequential parameter to establish the i…
GEIRI North America（全球能源互联网北美研究院）；University of Nebraska（内布拉斯加大学）；State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd.（国网江苏省电力有限公司）；State Grid US Representative Office（国家电网美国代表处）
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Compared with the substation or city level loads, individual loads are typically more volatile and much more challenging to forecast. To further address this issue, this paper first discusses the characteristics of small-and-medium enterprise (SME) and residential loads at different …
Due to the limitation of data availability, traditional power load forecasting methods focus more on studying the load variation pattern and the influence of only a few factors such as temperature and holidays, which fail to reveal the inner mechanism of load variation. This paper breaks the limitation and collects 80 potential features from astronomy, geography, and society to study the complex nexus between power load variation and influence factors, based on which a short-term power load forecasting method is proposed. Case studies show that, compared with the state-of-the-art methods, the …
GEIRI North America（北美电力科学研究院）；State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd.（国网江苏省电力有限公司）
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This paper proposes a two-stage probabilistic load forecasting framework by integrating point forecast as a key probabilistic forecasting feature into PLF. In the first stage, all related features are utilized to train a point forecast model and also obtain the feature importance. In…
Efficient load forecasting is needed to ensure better observability in the distribution networks, whereas such forecasting is made possible by an increasing number of smart meter installations. Because distribution networks include a large amount of different loads at various aggregation levels, such as individual consumers, transformer stations and feeders loads, it is impractical to develop individual (or so-called local) forecasting models for each load separately. Furthermore, such local models ignore the strong dependencies between different loads that might be present due to their spatia…
The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies by forecasting problem. In addition, the key principles of the main techniques and methodologies used are summarized along with the reviews of these papers. The classification process relies on two couples of parameters that define a forecasting problem. Each article is classified with key information about the dat…
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland（芬兰VTT技术研究中心）
This paper presents a novel deep learning architecture for short term load forecasting of building energy loads. The architecture is based on a simple base learner and multiple boosting systems that are modelled as a single deep neural network. The architecture transforms the original multivariate time series into multiple cascading univariate time series. Together with sparse interactions, parameter sharing and equivariant representations, this approach makes it possible to combat against overfitting while still achieving good presentation power with a deep network architecture. The architect…
Central South University（中南大学）；Caledonian University（喀里多尼亚大学）
As an important part of the power system, power load forecasting directly affects the national economy. The data shows that improving the load forecasting accuracy by 0.01% can save millions of dollars for the power industry. Therefore, improving the accuracy of power load forecasting has always been the pursuing goals for a power system. Based on this goal, this paper proposes a novel connection, the dense average connection, in which the outputs of all preceding layers are averaged as the input of the next layer in a feed-forward fashion. Based on dense average connection , we construct the …
As the volatility of electricity demand increases owing to climate change and electrification, the importance of accurate peak load forecasting is increasing. Traditional peak load forecasting has been conducted through time series-based models; however, recently, new models based on machine or deep learning are being introduced. This study performs a comparative analysis to determine the most accurate peak load-forecasting model for Korea, by comparing the performance of time series, machine learning, and hybrid models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable…
Università della Svizzera Italiana（瑞士意大利语区大学）；Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）
Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructure such as Smart Grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting which, due to its nonlinear nature, remains a challenging task. Recently, deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks, from image classification to machine translation. Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry, but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different architectures is not yet…
Adaptive Multi-task Learning for Probabilistic Load Forecasting
BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics（BCAM-巴斯克应用数学中心）；Zenit Solar Tech；Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)（麻省理工学院（MIT））；IKERBASQUE-Basque Foundation for Science（IKERBASQUE-巴斯克科学基金会）
This paper presents a convolutional neural network (CNN) which can be used for forecasting electricity load profiles 36 hours into the future. In contrast to well established CNN architectures, the input data is one-dimensional. A parameter scanning of network parameters is conducted in order to gain information about the influence of the kernel size, number of filters, and dense size. The results show that a good forecast quality can already be achieved with basic CNN architectures.The method works not only for smooth sum loads of many hundred consumers, but also for the load of apartment bui…
Advanced metering infrastructure systems record a high volume of residential load data, opening up an opportunity for utilities to understand consumer energy consumption behaviors. Existing studies have focused on load profiling and prediction, but neglected the role of socioeconomic characteristics of consumers in their energy consumption behaviors. In this paper, we develop a prediction model using deep neural networks to predict load patterns of consumers based on their socioeconomic information. We analyze load patterns using the K-means clustering method and use an entropy-based feature s…
In this paper, we introduce mREAL-GAN, a generative adversarial network (GAN) for the parallel generation of multiple residential electrical appliance load (mREAL) profiles. mREAL-GAN is intended for use in community-scale low-voltage network analysis, and represents a departure from previous methods for this purpose, which break the generation of appliance load profiles into several steps and largely model each appliance independently. Instead, mREAL-GAN models appliance load profiles in an end-to-end manner, and generates multiple appliance load profiles in parallel in a way that captures in…
Load forecasting is an integral part of power system operations and planning. Due to the increasing penetration of rooftop PV, electric vehicles and demand response applications, forecasting the load of individual and a small group of households is becoming increasingly important. Forecasting the load accurately, however, is considerable more difficult when only a few households are included. A way to mitigate this challenge is to provide a set of scenarios instead of one point forecast, so an operator or utility can consider a range of behaviors. This paper proposes a novel scenario forecasti…
Long, lightly loaded feeders serving residential loads may begin to experience voltage excursions as plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) penetration increases. Residential PEV charging tends to occur during peak-load hours on residential feeders, leading to increased peak loads and potential voltage excursions. To avoid voltage excursions, two PEV charging control strategies were investigated using the IEEE 34-bus feeder. The first strategy shifts PEV charging energy from peak hours to off-peak hours; the other strategy allows PEVs to provide reactive power support. Undervoltage excursions seen in …
For the last ten years, utilities have observed on-going transitions on consumers' load curves. The previously flat load curves have more frequently turned into duck-shape. This is jointly caused by the increasing household loads as well as the popularity of rooftop solar photovoltaic. Such load curve transition challenges the operational flexibility of the existing systems and greatly increases the per-MWh energy costs. Peak shaving, in this context, becomes a critical task to demand-side management. Owing to the development of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), numerous peak shaving stra…
An inexpensive protection device capable of disconnecting a load upon detecting a voltage sag or surge is presented. Said device is aimed towards the residential voltage of Venezuela's electrical system. The device is based on the Arduino platform, and uses an ATmega 328P. It detects the presence of a voltage sag or surge by sampling the residential voltage used to feed the load, and continuously measuring the RMS $\frac{1}{2}$ voltage. It disconnects the load after 3 semi-cycles where the residential voltage is outside the boundaries established by Venezuela's national electrical code, and th…
The rising demand for electricity and its essential nature in today's world calls for intelligent home energy management (HEM) systems that can reduce energy usage. This involves scheduling of loads from peak hours of the day when energy consumption is at its highest to leaner off-peak periods of the day when energy consumption is relatively lower thereby reducing the system's peak load demand, which would consequently result in lesser energy bills, and improved load demand profile. This work introduces a novel way to develop a learning system that can learn from experience to shift loads from…
Integration of electronics-based residential appliances and distributed energy resources in homes is expected to rise with grid decarbonization. These devices may introduce significant harmonics into power networks that need to be closely studied in order to accurately model and forecast load. However, it can be difficult to obtain harmonic-rich voltage and current data -- necessary for identifying accurate load models -- for residential electrical loads. Recognizing this need, first a set of electronics-based end-use loads is identified and modeled in an electromagnetic transients program too…
International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad（海得拉巴国际信息技术学院）
Individual device loads and energy consumption feedback is one of the important approaches for pursuing users to save energy in residences. This can help in identifying faulty devices and wasted energy by devices when left On unused. The main challenge is to identity and estimate the energy consumption of individual devices without intrusive sensors on each device. Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) or energy disaggregation, is a blind source separation problem which requires a system to estimate the electricity usage of individual appliances from the aggregated household energy consumption.…
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）
Appliance-level load forecasting plays a critical role in residential energy management, besides having significant importance for ancillary services performed by the utilities. In this paper, we propose to use an LSTM-based sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) learning model that can capture the load profiles of appliances. We use a real dataset collected fromfour residential buildings and compare our proposed schemewith three other techniques, namely VARMA, Dilated One Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network, and an LSTM model.The results show that the proposed LSTM-based seq2seq model outperform…
The data collected by smart meters contain a lot of useful information. One potential use of the data is to track the energy consumptions and operating statuses of major home appliances.The results will enable homeowners to make sound decisions on how to save energy and how to participate in demand response programs. This paper presents a new method to breakdown the total power demand measured by a smart meter to those used by individual appliances. A unique feature of the proposed method is that it utilizes diverse signatures associated with the entire operating window of an appliance for ide…
Lahore University of Management Sciences（拉合尔管理科学大学）；Georgia State University（佐治亚州立大学）；Hazara University（哈扎拉大学）；Islamic University（伊斯兰大学）
Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of the power sector. Forecasting load at a fine granularity such as hourly loads of individual households is challenging due to higher volatility and inherent stochasticity. At the aggregate levels, such as monthly load at a grid, the uncertainties and fluctuations are averaged out; hence predicting load is more straightforward. This paper proposes a method called Forecasting using Matrix Factorization (\textsc{fmf}) for short-term load forecasting (\textsc{stlf}). \textsc{fmf} only utilizes historical data from cons…
This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. The framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using user load forecasting needs as input features, multiple meta-learners are used to rank the available load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism weights recommendations from each meta-leaner to make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different tempora…
Electricity load forecasting is crucial for the power systems' planning and maintenance. However, its un-stationary and non-linear characteristics impose significant difficulties in anticipating future demand. This paper proposes a novel ensemble deep Random Vector Functional Link (edRVFL) network for electricity load forecasting. The weights of hidden layers are randomly initialized and kept fixed during the training process. The hidden layers are stacked to enforce deep representation learning. Then, the model generates the forecasts by ensembling the outputs of each layer. Moreover, we also…
Short term load forecasting has an essential medium for the reliable, economical and efficient operation of the power system. Most of the existing forecasting approaches utilize fixed statistical models with large historical data for training the models. However, due to the recent integration of large distributed generation, the nature of load demand has become dynamic. Thus because of the dynamic nature of the power load demand, the performance of these models may deteriorate over time. To accommodate the dynamic nature of the load demands, we propose a sliding window regression based dynamic…
We study the security threats of power system operation brought by a class of data injection attacks upon load forecasting algorithms. In particular, with minimal assumptions on the knowledge and ability of the attacker, we design attack data on input features for load forecasting algorithms in a black-box approach. System operators can be oblivious of such wrong load forecasts, which lead to uneconomical or even insecure decisions in commitment and dispatch. This paper is the first attempt to bring up the security issues of load forecasting algorithms to our knowledge, and show that accurate …
Short-term load forecasting is one of the crucial sections in smart grid. Precise forecasting enables system operators to make reliable unit commitment and power dispatching decisions. With the advent of big data, a number of artificial intelligence techniques such as back propagation, support vector machine have been used to predict the load of the next day. Nevertheless, due to the noise of raw data and the randomness of power load, forecasting errors of existing approaches are relatively large. In this study, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed on the basis of empirical mode de…
This paper conducts research on the short-term electric load forecast method under the background of big data. It builds a new electric load forecast model based on Deep Auto-Encoder Networks (DAENs), which takes into account multidimensional load-related data sets including historical load value, temperature, day type, etc. A new distributed short-term load forecast method based on TensorFlow and DAENs is therefore proposed, with an algorithm flowchart designed. This method overcomes the shortcomings of traditional neural network methods, such as over-fitting, slow convergence and local optim…
