Due to the limitation of data availability, traditional power load forecasting methods focus more on studying the load variation pattern and the influence of only a few factors such as temperature and holidays, which fail to reveal the inner mechanism of load variation. This paper breaks the limitation and collects 80 potential features from astronomy, geography, and society to study the complex nexus between power load variation and influence factors, based on which a short-term power load forecasting method is proposed. Case studies show that, compared with the state-of-the-art methods, the proposed method improves the forecasting accuracy by 33.0% to 34.7%. The forecasting result reveals that geographical features have the most significant impact on improving the load forecasting accuracy, in which temperature is the dominant feature. Astronomical features have more significant influence than social features and features related to the sun play an important role, which are obviously ignored in previous research. Saturday and Monday are the most important social features. Temperature, solar zenith angle, civil twilight duration, and lagged clear sky global horizontal irradiance have a V-shape relationship with power load, indicating that there exist balance points for them. Global horizontal irradiance is negatively related to power load.
TimeSynth: A Framework for Uncovering Systematic Biases in Time Series Forecasting
Scientific Computing and Imaging Institute, University of Utah（科学计算与成像研究所，犹他大学）；Kahlert School of Computing, University of Utah（Kahlert计算学院，犹他大学）；Mountain Biometrics Inc.（山景生物医学公司）；Department of Psychiatry, University of Utah（精神病学系，犹他大学）
Forecasting thermal load is a key component for the majority of optimization solutions for controlling district heating and cooling systems. Recent studies have analysed the results of a number of data-driven methods applied to thermal load forecasting, this paper presents the results of combining a collection of these individual methods in an expert system. The expert system will combine multiple thermal load forecasts in a way that it always tracks the best expert in the system. This solution is tested and validated using a thermal load dataset of 27 months obtained from 10 residential build…
Accurate day-ahead peak load forecasting is crucial not only for power dispatching but also has a great interest to investors and energy policy maker as well as government. Literature reveals that 1% error drop of forecast can reduce 10 million pounds operational cost. Thus, this study proposed a novel hybrid predictive model built upon multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) and support vector regression (SVR) with parameters optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO), which is able to capture precise electricity peak load. The novelty of this study mainly comes from the applicat…
GEIRI North America（北美电力科学研究院）；State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd.（国网江苏省电力有限公司）
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This paper proposes a two-stage probabilistic load forecasting framework by integrating point forecast as a key probabilistic forecasting feature into PLF. In the first stage, all related features are utilized to train a point forecast model and also obtain the feature importance. In…
The outburst of COVID-19 in late 2019 was the start of a health crisis that shook the world and took millions of lives in the ensuing years. Many governments and health officials failed to arrest the rapid circulation of infection in their communities. The long incubation period and the large proportion of asymptomatic cases made COVID-19 particularly elusive to track. However, wastewater monitoring soon became a promising data source in addition to conventional indicators such as confirmed daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Despite the consensus on the effectiveness of wastewater vira…
Efficient load forecasting is needed to ensure better observability in the distribution networks, whereas such forecasting is made possible by an increasing number of smart meter installations. Because distribution networks include a large amount of different loads at various aggregation levels, such as individual consumers, transformer stations and feeders loads, it is impractical to develop individual (or so-called local) forecasting models for each load separately. Furthermore, such local models ignore the strong dependencies between different loads that might be present due to their spatia…
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland（芬兰VTT技术研究中心）
This paper presents a novel deep learning architecture for short term load forecasting of building energy loads. The architecture is based on a simple base learner and multiple boosting systems that are modelled as a single deep neural network. The architecture transforms the original multivariate time series into multiple cascading univariate time series. Together with sparse interactions, parameter sharing and equivariant representations, this approach makes it possible to combat against overfitting while still achieving good presentation power with a deep network architecture. The architect…
The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies by forecasting problem. In addition, the key principles of the main techniques and methodologies used are summarized along with the reviews of these papers. The classification process relies on two couples of parameters that define a forecasting problem. Each article is classified with key information about the dat…
Central South University（中南大学）；Caledonian University（喀里多尼亚大学）
As an important part of the power system, power load forecasting directly affects the national economy. The data shows that improving the load forecasting accuracy by 0.01% can save millions of dollars for the power industry. Therefore, improving the accuracy of power load forecasting has always been the pursuing goals for a power system. Based on this goal, this paper proposes a novel connection, the dense average connection, in which the outputs of all preceding layers are averaged as the input of the next layer in a feed-forward fashion. Based on dense average connection , we construct the …
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system in various ways. Due to the growing importance of probabilistic load forecast models, different approaches are presented in this analysis. The focus is on different models from the short-term sector. After that, another model from the long-term sector is presented. Then, the presented models are put in relation to each other and examined with reference to ad…
Electricity load forecasting for buildings and campuses is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) grows. Efficient operation and dispatch of DERs require reasonably accurate predictions of future energy consumption in order to conduct near-real-time optimized dispatch of on-site generation and storage assets. Electric utilities have traditionally performed load forecasting for load pockets spanning large geographic areas, and therefore forecasting has not been a common practice by buildings and campus operators. Given the growing trends of res…
Università della Svizzera Italiana（瑞士意大利语区大学）；Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）
Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructure such as Smart Grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting which, due to its nonlinear nature, remains a challenging task. Recently, deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks, from image classification to machine translation. Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry, but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different architectures is not yet…
GEIRI North America（全球能源互联网北美研究院）；University of Nebraska（内布拉斯加大学）；State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd.（国网江苏省电力有限公司）；State Grid US Representative Office（国家电网美国代表处）
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Compared with the substation or city level loads, individual loads are typically more volatile and much more challenging to forecast. To further address this issue, this paper first discusses the characteristics of small-and-medium enterprise (SME) and residential loads at different …
Forecasting the actual amount of electricity with respect to the need/demand of the load is always been a challenging task for each power plants based generating stations. Due to uncertain demand of electricity at receiving end of station causes several challenges such as: reduction in performance parameters of generating and receiving end stations, minimization in revenue, increases the jeopardize for the utility to predict the future energy need for a company etc. With this issues, the precise forecasting of load at the receiving end station is very consequential parameter to establish the i…
Adaptive Multi-task Learning for Probabilistic Load Forecasting
BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics（BCAM-巴斯克应用数学中心）；Zenit Solar Tech；Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)（麻省理工学院（MIT））；IKERBASQUE-Basque Foundation for Science（IKERBASQUE-巴斯克科学基金会）
This paper presents a convolutional neural network (CNN) which can be used for forecasting electricity load profiles 36 hours into the future. In contrast to well established CNN architectures, the input data is one-dimensional. A parameter scanning of network parameters is conducted in order to gain information about the influence of the kernel size, number of filters, and dense size. The results show that a good forecast quality can already be achieved with basic CNN architectures.The method works not only for smooth sum loads of many hundred consumers, but also for the load of apartment bui…
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
Accurate day-ahead individual residential load forecasting is of great importance to various applications of smart grid on day-ahead market. Deep learning, as a powerful machine learning technology, has shown great advantages and promising application in load forecasting tasks. However, deep learning is a computationally-hungry method, and requires high costs (e.g., time, energy and CO2 emission) to train a deep learning model, which aggravates the energy crisis and incurs a substantial burden to the environment. As a consequence, the deep learning methods are difficult to be popularized and a…
Qom University of Technology（库姆理工大学）；London South Bank University（伦敦南岸大学）
Integration of renewable energy sources and emerging loads like electric vehicles to smart grids brings more uncertainty to the distribution system management. Demand Side Management (DSM) is one of the approaches to reduce the uncertainty. Some applications like Nonintrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) can support DSM, however they require accurate forecasting on high resolution data. This is challenging when it comes to single loads like one residential household due to its high volatility. In this paper, we review some of the existing Deep Learning-based methods and present our solution using Ti…
University of Liverpool（利物浦大学）；Suzhou SeeEx Technology Co., Ltd（苏州悉智科技有限公司）
With the employment of smart meters, massive data on consumer behaviour can be collected by retailers. From the collected data, the retailers may obtain the household profile information and implement demand response. While retailers prefer to acquire a model as accurate as possible among different customers, there are two major challenges. First, different retailers in the retail market do not share their consumer's electricity consumption data as these data are regarded as their assets, which has led to the problem of data island. Second, the electricity load data are highly heterogeneous si…
Power load forecast with Machine Learning is a fairly mature application of artificial intelligence and it is indispensable in operation, control and planning. Data selection techniqies have been hardly used in this application. However, the use of such techniques could be beneficial provided the assumption that the data is identically distributed is clearly not true in load forecasting, but it is cyclostationary. In this work we present a fully automatic methodology to determine what are the most adequate data to train a predictor which is based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model. We asse…
Zero-shot Load Forecasting for Integrated Energy Systems: A Large Language Model-based Framework with Multi-task Learning
School of Automation Science and Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学自动化科学与工程学院）；School of Electronic Information Engineering, Shanghai Dianji University（上海电机学院电子信息工程学院）；School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；School of Microelectronics, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学微电子学院）；State Key Laboratory for Manufacturing System Engineering Lab, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学制造系统工程国家重点实验室）
The Chinese University of Hongkong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
While the advanced machine learning algorithms are effective in load forecasting, they often suffer from low data utilization, and hence their superior performance relies on massive datasets. This motivates us to design machine learning algorithms with improved data utilization. Specifically, we consider the load forecasting for a new user in the system by observing only few shots (data points) of its energy consumption. This task is challenging since the limited samples are insufficient to exploit the temporal characteristics, essential for load forecasting. Nonetheless, we notice that there …
CELESTE, Inria Saclay（法国国家信息与自动化研究所萨克雷研究中心，CELESTE）；School of Mathematics, University of Bristol（布里斯托大学数学学院）；EDF Lab（法国电力集团研究院）
In the context of smart grids and load balancing, daily peak load forecasting has become a critical activity for stakeholders of the energy industry. An understanding of peak magnitude and timing is paramount for the implementation of smart grid strategies such as peak shaving. The modelling approach proposed in this paper leverages high-resolution and low-resolution information to forecast daily peak demand size and timing. The resulting multi-resolution modelling framework can be adapted to different model classes. The key contributions of this paper are a) a general and formal introduction …
As the volatility of electricity demand increases owing to climate change and electrification, the importance of accurate peak load forecasting is increasing. Traditional peak load forecasting has been conducted through time series-based models; however, recently, new models based on machine or deep learning are being introduced. This study performs a comparative analysis to determine the most accurate peak load-forecasting model for Korea, by comparing the performance of time series, machine learning, and hybrid models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable…
From ARIMA to Attention: Power Load Forecasting Using Temporal Deep Learning
Department of Computer Science and Engineering（计算机科学与工程系）；Vellore Institute of Technology（韦洛雷理工学院）；Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering（电子与通信工程系）；Bharat Institute of Engineering and Technology（巴拉特工程与技术学院）
Single layer Feedforward Neural Network(FNN) is used many a time as a last layer in models such as seq2seq or could be a simple RNN network. The importance of such layer is to transform the output to our required dimensions. When it comes to weights and biases initialization, there is no such specific technique that could speed up the learning process. We could depend on deep network initialization techniques such as Xavier or He initialization. But such initialization fails to show much improvement in learning speed or accuracy. In this paper we propose Zero Initialization (ZI) for weights of…
An Error Correction Mid-term Electricity Load Forecasting Model Based on Seasonal Decomposition
Southwest University（西南大学）；Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load
University of Saskatchewan（萨斯喀彻温大学）；SaskPower（萨斯电力公司）
The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and its variants have been extensively employed in the load and renewable forecasting literature. Using this multiresolution decomposition, time series (TS) related to the historical load and renewable generation are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are less non-stationary and non-linear. As such, the prediction of the components can theoretically be carried out with notably higher precision. The EMD method is prone to several issues, including modal aliasing and boundary effect problems, but the TS decomposition-based…
Extending Load Forecasting from Zonal Aggregates to Individual Nodes for Transmission System Operators
School of Engineering, Stanford University（斯坦福大学工程学院）；Technical University Munich（慕尼黑技术大学）；Czech Technical University in Prague（布拉格捷克技术大学）；University of Granada（Granada大学）；Monash University（墨尔本大学）
Czestochowa University of Technology（琴斯托霍瓦理工大学）；Uber Technologies（优步科技公司）
This work presents a hybrid and hierarchical deep learning model for mid-term load forecasting. The model combines exponential smoothing (ETS), advanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ensembling. ETS extracts dynamically the main components of each individual time series and enables the model to learn their representation. Multi-layer LSTM is equipped with dilated recurrent skip connections and a spatial shortcut path from lower layers to allow the model to better capture long-term seasonal relationships and ensure more efficient training. A common learning procedure for LSTM and ETS, with …
Meta；Czestochowa University of Technology（琴斯托霍瓦工业大学）
In this paper, we propose a new short-term load forecasting (STLF) model based on contextually enhanced hybrid and hierarchical architecture combining exponential smoothing (ES) and a recurrent neural network (RNN). The model is composed of two simultaneously trained tracks: the context track and the main track. The context track introduces additional information to the main track. It is extracted from representative series and dynamically modulated to adjust to the individual series forecasted by the main track. The RNN architecture consists of multiple recurrent layers stacked with hierarchi…
